Bush has already begun a professional, well run and highly effective fundraising operation that already was sweeping in many former Romney donors. Those who have seen Bush in action speak in almost glowing terms. It may be that Christie catches up, but the decisive entry into the race and the “shock and awe” sort of approach has benefited Jeb Bush.
There are several factors that will continue to influence the big money donors. First, these are people who discount, for better or worse, grassroots appeal and look at stature, poise, smarts and fluid answers. Second, they want to win — badly — and in the polls, money and organization Bush seems the best prepared for the long haul at this early stage. Third, there remain concerns about Christie’s temperament and how his New Jersey record will shape up. One GOP insider put it, “Scott Walker sounds moderate and governs like a conservative. Christie is the opposite.” Christie is a magnetic personality, but less predictable, less disciplined and less organized — the opposite of what donors want. And finally, it cannot be underestimated how long some donors go back with the Bush family. These people adore the Bushes, feel comfortable with them and believe there will be few if any surprises. They too can see the early polls and considering Christie’s wide name recognition his standing in single digits in most surveys suggest he has an uphill battle to present himself to the primary audience and overcome concerns about his larger-than-life personality.
Does this mean Bush wins the primary? Absolutely not. It means most of the establishment Republicans and big donors will head his way. But real doubts do remain about whether he is the best match-up against Hillary Clinton and if “Bush fatigue” is real. A surprising number of these donors, especially ones concerned about showing a fresh new face, will turn to Walker and to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who both are reassuring for insiders but have grassroots appeal. In fact, it is the latter two who may gain the most from Romney. Their prospects rely on exceeding expectations, providing a wider appeal to different parts of the party and the real desire to find a relatable candidate. (Both the Rubio immigrant tale and the Walker “Midwest working guy” image would fit the bill.)
For now, the pre-primary race will continue. The road ahead looks brightest for Bush, Walker and Rubio. Let’s see how they operate with voters and media over the months and months ahead.