Cruz is spending all day today in Texas. Think about that. With all the states on the primary calendar, he is in Dallas, San Antonio and then Houston. His prospects are so dim elsewhere, apparently, that all he can do at this point is to try to lock down his home state, something that should have been done months ago. He is likely to pull out a win there but wind up shy of 40 percent. (He has 36.2 percent in the RealClearPolitics average, less than 10 percent ahead of Donald Trump.)
If he manages to lose Texas, he surely is done. Even if he manages to win there, however, he may have no other consolation. He could well lose everywhere else in the South and, in fact, comes in third in polls in most states behind Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).
NBC reports: “Ted Cruz and his SuperPAC allies are outspending pro-Rubio efforts on the air in Super Tuesday states by almost a factor of 2-1. Pro-Cruz forces have spent a total of about $6.2 million in mostly southern states, with the biggest dollar amounts in Georgia ($1.6m), Tennessee ($1.2m) and Cruz’s home state of Texas (about $1m).” With little to show for it, and meager amounts in the till, it would be hard to rationalize slogging on, especially with expensive media states (especially Florida) ahead.
Cruz also would need to consider his future in the party. It must have be a sobering experience to run as poorly as he has, with such little support from other Republicans. His antics in the Senate earned him unanimous enmity among colleagues — not even Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) or Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) would back him. His theory of the race — a silent majority of very conservative voters alone could lift him to victory — was shown to be spectacularly wrong. His main strategic ploy — to ingratiate himself with Trump and wait for him to collapse — was a disaster, only helping to bestow legitimacy on a racist, authoritarian know-nothing real-estate man.
Surely if Cruz wanted to go into private law practice, now would be the time to put his dismal campaign behind him. But if he wants to return to the Senate, repair his reputation, expand his reach, produce legislative accomplishments and come out a wiser, more likable, more electable politician, he has to think about how he would choose to leave the race.
One option is simply to leave and promise to back whomever the nominee may be. That puts him in the company of opportunists and nativists. If Trump were then to become the nominee, Cruz would then have to defend Trump, his rhetoric, his ideas and his character. Even for Cruz, that may be too loathsome an assignment. Moreover, even if Trump wins, for what position does Cruz actually think former colleagues would confirm him? He is a man with no supporters.
The other option is to join the #NeverTrump ranks and respected conservative figures such as Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), former senator Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) and others who seek to save conservatism — the principles Cruz purports to believe in — from Trumpism. Going that route would be the first step in political rehab. If Trump loses, either in the primary or the general, Cruz will get some credit. Even if Trump wins, Cruz will gain new respect for having taken a principled stance.
Cruz has never had a strong internal compass, but rather, has strayed wherever his ambition took him (mimicking Sen. Rand Paul on national security and Trump on mass deportation). It is not clear he knows where he should be, or in which causes political virtue resides.
Making a correct judgment this time — to get out swiftly, back the most obvious alternative and count himself as inextricably opposed to Trump — would be the first hopeful sign that he understands there are causes greater than immediate self-interest. If he does not figure it out, it will be one more head-shaking episode highlighting what a wasted talent Cruz has been — so smart and yet so lacking in people skills and moral fiber.
Let’s hope for once he chooses the noble path, which incidentally would be most likely to benefit him in the long run.