David Wasserman from the Cook Political Report suggests that at least two Republicans are in greater danger of losing their seats than previously thought. The first is Rep. Barbara Comstock in the Virginia 10th Congressional District. Wasserman explains: “Democratic strategists got what they wanted when state Sen. Jennifer Wexton comfortably won her primary, taking 42 percent … Meanwhile in the GOP primary, Comstock took an underwhelming 61 percent against conservative veteran and self-described inspirational speaker Shak Hill, who raised $245,000 and attacked Comstock for calling on Trump to step aside as the GOP nominee in fall 2016.” However, Comstock’s problem is really how well or poorly she fits her district, which was previously represented by moderate Republican Frank Wolf, a hero to human right activists.. Wasserman says:

It’s difficult to overstate how rapidly the fast-growing 10th CD’s politics have shifted. It’s the most college-educated GOP-held district in the country, and 37 percent of its residents are non-white. In 2011, Republicans drew it to elect one of their own. But in 2017 Democrat Ralph Northam annihilated Ed Gillespie 56 percent to 43 percent in the 10th CD. Down-ballot, the “blue wave” swept out six overlapping incumbent GOP state delegates.

Put it this way: If Comstock loses, there will be no Republicans at the federal level representing Fairfax, Loudoun and Arlington counties, the three large suburban districts adjacent to Washington. (There are no Republicans in statewide positions at either the federal or state level). Over time these districts have become more racially diverse, more affluent and populated by more college graduates.

Add in radical Trumper and racial provocateur Corey Stewart at the top of the ticket (for Senate) and Comstock’s position looks increasingly tenuous. Wexton has been criticized for being a bit rough around the edges in contrast to the super-polished Comstock, but she is savvy enough to bash Comstock for the GOP’s immigration stance. She tweeted on Monday: “[President Trump’s] policy of ripping children away from their parents at the border is abject cruelty and distinctly un-American. Rep. Comstock must immediately denounce this shameful practice, and do everything within her power to stop it.” (Comstock didn’t even sign on to the discharge petition to put a “dreamer” bill on the floor.)

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Wasserman thinks this race is now a “Lean Democrat” (moving from “Toss Up”).

Then there is the Kentucky 6th District, where former fighter pilot Amy McGrath, a breakout star for the Democrats, won her primary. Her opponent, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), hasn’t faced an opponent who’s even remotely as good as McGrath. That seat moves from Lean Republican to Toss Up in the Cook ratings.

And finally there is Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Tex.) in the 32nd District, who Wasserman says is “the most vulnerable incumbent in the Lone Star State. The powerful House Rules Committee chair’s rapidly moderating Dallas district voted for Hillary Clinton 48 percent to 47 percent in 2016. And despite serving as NRCC chair in 2010 and 2012, Sessions hasn’t had to run a competitive race since 2004.” What’s more, he is up against a much younger challenger, an African American and former Baylor and NFL football star Colin Allred (“Democrats view Allred’s profile as symbolic of this highly professional, suburban district that is almost 50 percent non-white.”) That race is now rated Toss Up.

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There is a pattern here — one that benefits Democrats. Democrat primary voters selected the best available candidate, and the incumbent Republican hasn’t faced real competition. For the VA-10th and TX-32, you also see a political realignment as Democrats begin to dominate among suburban white-collar voters near large cities. Democrats will point out to these voters all the reasons that Republicans have become offensive (e.g. anti-immigrant, restrictionist, authoritarian) and disconnected from their districts. Moreover, they’ll remind voters that these Republicans have been insufficiently independent and, in any case, help their party maintain a majority despite being utterly incapable of performing their constitutional duties and checking the president.

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