President Obama is in trouble because he is a left-wing ideologue trying to govern a center-right country. For a while, he had a free hand in Washington, but his management was poor and his policies were unpopular and ineffective. None of it is the Republicans’ fault. Yet the left just doesn’t see it that way; they see Republican conspiracies and deficiencies within an unappreciative public. But their number one problem is Obama. Their inability to recognize this and deal with it in a forthright way could mean that he will lose.
However, I still have Obama as the favorite. As I’ve said before, Obama doesn’t have all the symptoms of a losing incumbent, but I wouldn’t trade Obama’s problems for Romney’s problems right now. Yet the Democrats’ situation is getting worse, not better, and Obama’s trajectory is not good. I think the instinct to blame others and to look down on voters is aggravating all their other problems, including the ability to be self-aware. And as I said this morning, I see the Democrats forming a groupthink hive mentality, where they only listen to themselves. And no one is willing to face the problem that is Obama himself.