So here we are, back where we started, where we thought we would always end up: a race seemingly too close to call.
Mitt Romney is riding a national trend on the economy and dissatisfaction with the incumbent, which has finally kicked in. President Obama is clinging to his Electoral College strategy, working to make sure his backstop of Ohio isn't the political version of the Maginot Line.
Obama is trying to localize the race in places like Ohio, as this ad makes clear. Romney is trying to nationalize it. Will Obama persuade enough states to stay with him, based on the unique circumstances of their locale, or will the negative national trend finally sweep him away?
Politically, I'd rather be Romney right now, surfing the wave of momentum instead of clinging to my surfboard.