Using data from June, Wonkblog's model predicted Obama had a 67 percent chance of winning the election. At the time, I thought that was way, way too high. But the model was right and, going by the latest data, I was wrong.
Four polls show Obama up in Ohio while all models predict reelection, in our last installment of the 2012 Election in Numbers.
Democrats look set to pick up a Senate seat in Indiana while most models say Obama has it locked up, and other highlights from the day's election numbers.
Wildly differing assessments of the race in Wisconsin, and other model and polls results.
Mitt Romney won't say how his tax plan adds up. Wonkblog created a tax policy calculator that lets you do the work for him. So go on, give it a try. Reform the tax code.
Every poll but Gallup shows Obama gaining, Scott Brown catches up to Elizabeth Warren, and other highlights from the day's polls and models.
The final polls in a presidential race are rarely wrong by more than a percent or two. But that could matter.
Obama pulls away in Ohio while Romney does the same in Florida, and other results from the day's polls and models.
Lena Dunham cuts a video for Obama, the president remains steady at 300 electoral votes in most models, and other highlights from the day's polls, ads and models.
Democrats are heavily favored to keep the Senate and the White House. But they probably won't retake the House.
Tax hikes hurt a lot when taxes are already high. But when they're low, not so much.
Romney still leads nationally but Obama keeps his edge in Ohio, and other results from the day's polls and models.
Strong debate showing are associated with gains in the polls - but the relationship is very weak.
Romney leads most national polls, Wisconsin's Senate race heats up, and other results from the day's polls and models.
Obama leads in two national polls, Nate Silver increases the president's odds, and other results from the day's models and polls.
Obama keeps his lead in Ohio, Heller pulls away in Nevada, and other poll/model results.
Obama leads in Nevada, Gallup poll is grisly for the president, and other model and polls findings.
Democrats look set to hold governorships in New Hampshire and Washington, but will likely lose one in North Carolina, and other poll and model results.
Past tax reforms might not have increased growth. But more dramatic reforms could.
Nate Silver gives Dems a whopping 87 percent chance of holding the Senate, Sam Wang thinks they could get up to 56 seats, and other highlights from the day's model results and poll numbers.