Trump has been touting 3.1 percent economic growth in 2018. But officially, the Commerce Department said Thursday, the economy grew 2.9 percent last year.
There are two main ways to calculate GDP growth. The White House method is to calculate the change from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018, which is preferred by many economists, including the Federal Reserve. The Commerce Department reported Friday that measure of growth was revised down to 3 percent.
The official government GDP statistic, however, is calculated by comparing how many goods and services were produced in 2017 ($18.6 trillion) with 2017 output ($18.1 trillion). That change is 2.9 percent.
The two measures are typically quite close, and few people beyond data nerds notice the difference. But this report came under more scrutiny because Trump promised 3 percent growth every year for the next decade. Americans are rightly asking: Did he achieve his goal?
By the official government statistic, Trump did not. But most economists are willing to say he did because they think it is valid to look at the 3 percent calculation.
What is perhaps more important is putting growth in historical context. The 2.9 percent measure is the best since 2015, a robust but not unprecedented rate during this recovery.
Trump has been pointing to the 3 percent measure as the “best in 14 years.” He says that because it is the best fourth quarter to fourth quarter change during that time frame, but growth also hit 3 percent (or better) several times under President Obama, including during the first quarter of 2015, when it grew 3.8 percent.
Economists are not focused on this political debate. The main takeaway for most experts is that growth is showing clear signs of slowing. The economy grew 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2018, 3.4 percent in the third quarter and a 2.2 percent in the final quarter.
Both consumers and businesses cooled in the final quarter of the year and that trend is expected to continue in early 2019.
The White House is predicting 3.2 percent growth this year, but most independent forecasters expect it to fall within the 2 to 2.5 percent range. The first quarter is expected to be particularly sluggish because of bad weather in parts of the country and the partial government shutdown.
“In 2018, momentum accelerated. In 2019, we will see momentum decelerating. The inflection point was really the fourth quarter last year,” said Gregory Daco, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “This does not mean we’re headed for a recession. It just means growth will slow to about 2 percent this year and next.”