From space, the U.S. Midwest is more brown belt than farm belt right now.
At this time of year, a band of deep Kelly green should spread from Ohio to North Dakota as corn and soybeans race to pack on size before they pollinate and bear fruit. But 2019’s unprecedented rains have uprooted the typical course of events. Some crops are waterlogged and stunted. Others won’t be planted at all.
[Extreme weather is pummeling the Midwest, and farmers are in deep trouble]
Unplanted, drowned or late fields have two things in common: They look brown from space, and they mean farmers will probably harvest less corn and soybeans this year than they had planned.
Vegetation condition
in the farm belt, with data
only forcrop-growing areas
Deviation from multiple-year mean
High
plant vigor
Normal
Low
plant vigor
N.D.
MINN.
Minneapolis
WISC.
S.D.
MICH.
IOWA
NEB.
OHIO
ILL.
IND.
Springfield
KAN.
Wichita
MO.
200 MILES
Note: Mean data is for June 18-24, week 25
Vegetation condition in the farm belt,
with data only for crop-growing areas
Deviation from multiple-year mean
High plant vigor
Normal
Low vegetative
condition
N.D.
MINN.
Minneapolis
WISC.
S.D.
MICH.
IOWA
NEB.
OHIO
IND.
ILL.
Springfield
KAN.
St. Louis
MO.
200 MILES
Note: Mean data is for June 18-24, week 25
Vegetation condition in the farm belt,
with data only for crop-growing areas
Deviation from multiple-year mean
Higher plant vigor and
chlorophyll content
Normal
Low vegetative condition
and plant heartiness
N. DAKOTA
MINNESOTA
Fargo
MICH.
WISCONSIN
Minneapolis
Eau Claire
S. DAKOTA
MICHIGAN
Sioux Falls
Madison
Detroit
IOWA
NEBRASKA
Chicago
Des Moines
OHIO
Omaha
INDIANA
Columbus
ILLINOIS
Indianapolis
Springfield
St. Louis
KANSAS
MISSOURI
Wichita
100 MILES
Note: Mean data is for June 18-24, week 25
Vegetation condition in the farm belt, with data only for crop-growing areas
Deviation from multiple-year mean
Higher plant vigor and
chlorophyll content
Normal
Low vegetative condition
and plant heartiness
N. DAKOTA
MINNESOTA
Fargo
MICH.
WISCONSIN
Minneapolis
Eau Claire
S. DAKOTA
MICHIGAN
Sioux Falls
Madison
Detroit
Chicago
IOWA
NEBRASKA
Des Moines
Omaha
OHIO
INDIANA
Columbus
ILLINOIS
Indianapolis
Springfield
KANSAS
St. Louis
MISSOURI
Wichita
100 MILES
Note: Mean data is for June 18-24, week 25
Some farms were devastated by the deluge, particularly smaller family operations that lacked insurance coverage and those that were washed out by flooded rivers. But thanks to a recovery in commodity prices and what University of Illinois economist Scott Irwin estimated will be a $20 billion infusion of federal money, those that are not knocked out by this perilous planting season are likely to come out of the disaster ahead.
Planted late or never
As seeds begin to germinate and emerge, corn and soybeans are further behind than they’ve ever been at this point in the year, according to about four decades of data from the Agriculture Department.
Corn progress
Planted
Emerged
This
year
Previous
years
100%
Previous
years
This
year
75
50
25
0
April
May
June
July
April
May
June
July
Soybean progress
Planted
Emerged
100%
75
50
25
0
April
May
June
July
April
May
June
July
Corn progress
Planted
Emerged
This
year
Previous
years
100%
Previous
years
This
year
75
50
25
0
April
May
June
July
April
May
June
July
Soybean progress
Planted
Emerged
100%
75
50
25
0
April
May
June
July
April
May
June
July
Corn progress
Planted
Emerged
Previous
years
This
year
100%
75
50
25
0
April
May
June
July
April
May
June
July
Soybean progress
Planted
Emerged
100%
75
50
25
0
April
May
June
July
April
May
June
July
Corn progress
Planted
Emerged
Previous
years
This
year
100%
75
50
25
0
April
May
June
July
April
May
June
July
Soybean progress
Planted
Emerged
100%
75
50
25
0
April
May
June
July
April
May
June
July
For corn, planting is effectively over and the die has been cast, although we won’t know the results until late fall. Soybean acres are not likely to be fully planted, either — the end of the planting window, unofficially considered to be July 4 — looms large.
[After a biblical spring, this is the week that could break the Corn Belt]
Now, beleaguered farmers will attempt to wring a respectable harvest out of fields Irwin likened to a “war zone for growing corn and soybeans.”
“Everything that could go right went perfect for growing corn and soybeans last year,” he said. “This year has been pretty much the opposite. So far, everything that can go wrong has gone wrong.”
Planted doesn’t mean thriving
When we seek to understand the brown Corn Belt, a hellish planting season is just the beginning. Planting totals are creeping higher, but many fields were planted in suboptimal conditions and farmers will be dealing with the fallout until harvest time.
[Weather woes cause American corn farmers to throw in the towel]
The extraordinary circumstances have scrambled USDA data and made reliable statistics scarce, according to Todd Hultman, a market analyst with the data firm DTN. Hultman expects farmers across the Midwest to plant millions fewer acres of corn than initially predicted and said a large but unknown number have been forced to exercise a crop insurance provision that allows them to take a limited payout if they were unable to plant certain acres. (Farmers may still plant cover crops in those acres to improve the soil, block weeds and earn extra income, but those won’t show up in satellite images until later in the season.)
The production squeeze from the lower acreage will be multiplied by what Kevin McNew, chief economist at Farmer’s Business Network, estimates will be a 10 percent drop in production per acre, thanks to the season’s miserable start.
Irwin said: “What corn got planted in June, a lot of it was in terrible conditions. They normally never would have planted corn in ground that was that wet.”
Soybeans are highly sensitive to late planting, according to Ohio State University’s Laura Lindsey, a soybean specialist who tests crop yields and advises farmers through the school’s agricultural extension program. With each day of delay after May 1, farmers’ likely harvest ticks downward. And starting in mid-June, they begin to accrue late-planting penalties from crop insurance providers, which reduces their final coverage. These incremental losses can make or break farms.
[Soybeans, explained for the agriculturally impaired]
When Lindsey toured Ohio soybean country on June 25, empty fields abounded. And the soybeans she did find? They were anemic little things with little potential to produce a load of legumes.
Compare satellite views of the area around Springfield, Ill., where most land is covered in corn or soybeans, to the previous year and you see why Irwin compared south-central Illinois to a war zone.
June 15, 2018
Decatur
Springfield
Chatham
Taylorville
ILLINOIS
Pana
Carlinville
10 MILES
June 25, 2019
Decatur
Springfield
Chatham
Taylorville
Pana
Carlinville
10 MILES
June 18, 2018
Decatur
Springfield
Chatham
Taylorville
ILLINOIS
Pana
Carlinville
June 25, 2019
Decatur
Springfield
Chatham
Taylorville
Pana
Carlinville
10 MILES
June 15, 2018
Decatur
Springfield
Chatham
Taylorville
Shelbyville
ILLINOIS
Pana
Carlinville
10 MILES
June 18, 2019
Decatur
Springfield
Chatham
Taylorville
Shelbyville
Pana
Carlinville
June 15, 2018
June 25, 2019
Decatur
Decatur
Springfield
Springfield
Chatham
Chatham
Taylorville
Taylorville
ILLINOIS
Shelbyville
Shelbyville
Pana
Pana
Carlinville
Carlinville
10 MILES
June 15, 2018
June 25, 2019
Decatur
Decatur
Springfield
Springfield
Chatham
Chatham
Taylorville
Taylorville
ILLINOIS
Shelbyville
Shelbyville
Pana
Pana
Carlinville
Carlinville
10 MILES
Many of those brown acres are counted as planted, though they're not always guaranteed to succeed.
The incentives are complicated. For example, farmers may stretch the definition of acceptable planting conditions not because they expect success but because it was the safest way to guarantee they would be included in the president’s latest farm bailout. Irwin estimates they’ll get about $50 an acre from the bailout — in a typical year, that could as much as double their profit.
A farmer might also plant because, if crop prices rally in the coming months, they would stand to gain more per acre from the crop insurance they purchased before planting season — even if their crop limps across the finish line. And if conditions are perfect and the crop thrives, farmers could make even more. Many chose to roll the dice and bet on higher prices, Irwin said.
There’s (some) hope
If July and August deliver the ideal balance of heat and precipitation and commodity prices keep climbing, some farmers could thrive this year. But the ultra-late start means everything will be riskier — the vital pollination stage will coincide with less favorable temperatures, for example, and harvest will be delayed.
Current indications for July aren’t promising, McNew said. “It’s expected to be cooler and wetter than normal, and that will not bode well for a crop that needs heat and dry to grow,” he said.
While higher prices will perhaps reward many Corn Belt farmers for surviving the most challenging year they’ve ever seen, Lindsey called the situation in her hard-hit region devastating, especially on the heels of a few down years and a rough harvest and winter. “I don’t think we’re seeing the full repercussions yet,” she said. “The effects of this year will be felt in Ohio for several years to come.”
“Right now, farmer stress levels are really high,” Lindsey said. “Farmers are worried about losing their farms.”
Sources: NASA MODIS imagery was composited using Google Earth Engine, white pixels depicted in the imagery are cloud cover. The mean vegetation-condition index comes from the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Crop progress data also comes from NASS and is as of the week ending June 30. Planting figures begin in 1980, emergence figures begin in 1999. It covers 18 major farming states and the vast majority of the crop. Sentinel 2 satellite imagery via the European Space Agency was used for the Springfield comparison.