The shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended politics around the world and posed a key question: Should the rest of the world shun Russian oil to avoid paying money to the Putin regime?
Here’s where Russian oil flows
The countries that import Russian crude and other petroleum products — and what it would take to turn off the spigot
Russia is the world’s largest oil exporter. Many lawmakers from both parties in the United States are arguing that it is possible to impose a ban on Russian oil without hurting the U.S. economy. But will the barrels add up in the global market? Oil analysts say the sheer magnitude of Russia’s oil exports makes them difficult if not impossible to offset, setting up high prices and an economic slowdown.
Here is a look at the flow of Russian oil, from western Siberia or the distant Yamal Peninsula to the cities of Beijing, Berlin and beyond.
Russia’s oil exports
7.2 million barrels per day
Russia is the third-largest oil
producer in the world. Its output
comes to 11.3 million barrels a day,
mostly from eastern Siberia, the
Yamal region and Tatarstan.
Russia ranks as the world’s largest oil
exporter. It consumes about 3.45
million barrels a day while exporting
more than 7 million barrels of crude
oil and other petroleum products a
day, shipped primarily through
pipelines but also by tankers.
Oil exports to:
Countries backing
sanctions
against Russia
Not
backing
sanctions
4.8 million
barrels per day
2.3 million
Denmark
Greece
France
Spain
In the year ending in October, Russia
supplied about a quarter of all oil
imported by the European Union,
three times as much as the
next-largest importer.
Germany
Poland
Dependence on Russian oil varies
widely among E.U. countries.
Germany, the bloc’s economic
powerhouse, and Poland
imported the largest quantities
for domestic use.
Lithuania
Slovakia
Finland
Among E.U. countries, Slovakia,
Finland and Lithuania rely most on
Russian oil imports.
United States
In the United States, the Biden
administration backed a ban on all
imports of Russian oil and gas as
lawmakers pushed ahead with a
bipartisan bill on Capitol Hill.
Overall, Russian oil last year
accounted for about 3 percent of
total U.S. consumption. Most
analysts say U.S. refiners can easily
buy that much elsewhere. A small
refiner in Hawaii, Par Pacific, for
example, said it has stopped buying
from Russia and would look to North
and South America for supplies.
The Netherlands
The Netherlands is a major refining
and trading center for Europe, with
large amounts of oil bought and sold
in Rotterdam.
China
Russia sold 1.6 million barrels of
crude oil a day to China last year,
making it the largest single buyer of
Russian crude. Russia was China's
second-largest crude oil supplier in
2021, accounting for about 15 percent
of China's total imports and behind
only Saudi Arabia.
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Belarus
Roughly 745,000 barrels of crude oil
was delivered per day to Central and
Eastern European nations, including
Hungary, Romania, the Czech
Republic, Slovakia, Belarus and
Bulgaria. Belarus got 95 percent of its
oil imports from Russia. Hungary got
74 percent and Lithuania 61 percent.
Russia’s oil exports
7.2 million barrels per day
Russia is the third-largest oil producer in the
world. Its output comes to 11.3 million barrels
a day, mostly from eastern Siberia, the Yamal
region and Tatarstan.
Russia ranks as the world’s largest oil
exporter. It consumes about 3.45 million
barrels a day while exporting more than
7 million barrels of crude oil and other
petroleum products a day, shipped primarily
through pipelines but also by tankers.
Oil exports to:
Countries backing
sanctions
against Russia
Not
backing
sanctions
4.8 million
barrels per day
2.3 million
Denmark
Greece
France
Spain
In the year ending in October, Russia supplied
about a quarter of all oil imported by the
European Union, three times as much as the
next-largest importer.
Germany
Poland
Dependence on Russian oil varies widely
among E.U. countries. Germany, the bloc’s
economic powerhouse, and Poland imported
the largest quantities for domestic use.
Lithuania
Slovakia
Finland
Among E.U. countries, Slovakia, Finland and
Lithuania rely most on Russian oil imports.
United States
In the United States, the Biden
administration backed a ban on all imports
of Russian oil and gas as lawmakers pushed
ahead with a bipartisan bill on Capitol Hill.
Overall, Russian oil last year accounted for
about 3 percent of total U.S. consumption.
Most analysts say U.S. refiners can easily buy
that much elsewhere. A small refiner in
Hawaii, Par Pacific, for example, said it has
stopped buying from Russia and would look
to North and South America for supplies.
The Netherlands
The Netherlands is a major refining and
trading center for Europe, with large amounts
of oil bought and sold in Rotterdam.
China
Russia sold 1.6 million barrels of crude oil a
day to China last year, making it the largest
single buyer of Russian crude. Russia was
China's second-largest crude oil supplier in
2021, accounting for about 15 percent of
China's total imports and behind only
Saudi Arabia.
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Belarus
Roughly 745,000 barrels of crude oil was
delivered per day to Central and Eastern
European nations, including Hungary,
Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia,
Belarus and Bulgaria. Belarus got 95 percent
of its oil imports from Russia. Hungary got
74 percent and Lithuania 61 percent.
Russia’s oil exports
7.2 million barrels per day
Russia is the third-largest oil producer in
the world. Its output comes to 11.3 million
barrels a day, mostly from eastern Siberia,
the Yamal region and Tatarstan.
Russia ranks as the world’s largest oil
exporter. It consumes about 3.45 million
barrels a day while exporting more than
7 million barrels of crude oil and other
petroleum products a day, shipped
primarily through pipelines but also by
tankers.
Oil exports to:
Countries backing
sanctions against Russia
Countries
not backing
sanctions
against Russia
4.8 million barrels per day
2.3 million
Lithuania
Denmark
Estonia
Greece
France
Spain
In the year ending in October, Russia supplied about a quarter
of all oil imported by the European Union, three times as
much as the next-largest importer.
Germany
Poland
Dependence on Russian oil varies widely among E.U.
countries. Germany, the bloc’s economic powerhouse, and
Poland imported the largest quantities for domestic use.
Lithuania
Slovakia
Finland
Among E.U. countries, Slovakia, Finland and Lithuania rely
most on Russian oil imports.
United States
In the United States, the Biden administration backed a ban on
all imports of Russian oil and gas as lawmakers pushed ahead
with a bipartisan bill on Capitol Hill. Overall, Russian oil last
year accounted for about 3 percent of total U.S. consumption.
Most analysts say U.S. refiners can easily buy that much
elsewhere. A small refiner in Hawaii, Par Pacific, for example,
said it has stopped buying from Russia and would look to North
and South America for supplies.
The Netherlands
The Netherlands is a major refining and trading center for
Europe, with large amounts of oil bought and sold in Rotterdam.
China
Russia sold 1.6 million barrels of crude oil a day to China last
year, making it the largest single buyer of Russian crude. Russia
was China's second-largest crude oil supplier in 2021,
accounting for about 15 percent of China's total imports and
behind only Saudi Arabia.
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Belarus
Roughly 745,000 barrels of crude oil was delivered per day to
Central and Eastern European nations, including Hungary,
Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus and Bulgaria.
Belarus got 95 percent of its oil imports from Russia. Hungary
got 74 percent and Lithuania 61 percent.
Russia’s oil exports
7.2 million barrels per day
Russia is the third-largest oil producer in the
world. Its output comes to 11.3 million barrels
a day, mostly from eastern Siberia, the Yamal
region and Tatarstan.
Russia ranks as the world’s largest oil exporter.
It consumes about 3.45 million barrels a day
while exporting more than 7 million barrels of
crude oil and other petroleum products a day,
shipped primarily through pipelines but also by
tankers.
Oil exports to:
Countries backing
sanctions against Russia
Countries not
backing
sanctions
against Russia
4.8 million barrels per day
2.3 million
Lithuania
Denmark
Estonia
Greece
France
Spain
In the year ending in October, Russia supplied about a quarter of
all oil imported by the European Union, three times as much as the
next-largest importer.
Germany
Poland
Dependence on Russian oil varies widely among E.U. countries.
Germany, the bloc’s economic powerhouse, and Poland imported the
largest quantities for domestic use.
Lithuania
Slovakia
Finland
Among E.U. countries, Slovakia, Finland and Lithuania rely most on
Russian oil imports.
United States
In the United States, the Biden administration backed a ban on all
imports of Russian oil and gas as lawmakers pushed ahead with a
bipartisan bill on Capitol Hill. Overall, Russian oil last year accounted
for about 3 percent of total U.S. consumption. Most analysts say U.S.
refiners can easily buy that much elsewhere. A small refiner in Hawaii,
Par Pacific, for example, said it has stopped buying from Russia and
would look to North and South America for supplies.
The Netherlands
The Netherlands is a major refining and trading center for Europe,
with large amounts of oil bought and sold in Rotterdam.
China
Russia sold 1.6 million barrels of crude oil a day to China last year,
making it the largest single buyer of Russian crude. Russia was China's
second-largest crude oil supplier in 2021, accounting for about 15
percent of China's total imports and behind only Saudi Arabia.
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Belarus
Roughly 745,000 barrels of crude oil was delivered per day to Central
and Eastern European nations, including Hungary, Romania, the
Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus and Bulgaria. Belarus got 95 percent
of its oil imports from Russia. Hungary got 74 percent and Lithuania
61 percent.
Who can produce enough oil to make up for the loss of Russia’s?
This is a daunting task, especially since global demand for oil is expected to climb 3.2 million barrels a day in 2022 to a total of 100.6 million a day, according to the International Energy Agency’s most recent monthly report.
In addition, current exports could be disrupted if internal fighting were to break out, as it has before, in places such as Libya, Iraq or Nigeria. And some refineries can only be matched with certain grades of crude.
“This is suboptimal math for the White House,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “You have to string it together, and everything has to break your way.”
Only a few countries would have the ability to boost their production to replace the
Russian oil cut off by sanctions.
4.8 million
barrels per day
Saudi Arabia
and UAE
Venezuela
Iran
U.S.
Up to
2.5 million
barrels per day
of additional
production
Up to
1.3 million
Up to
760,000
Up to
600,000
Only a few countries would have the ability to boost their production to replace the Russian oil cut off by sanctions.
4.8 million
barrels per day
Saudi Arabia
and UAE
Venezuela
Iran
U.S.
Up to 2.5 million
barrels per day
of additional
production
Up to
1.3 million
Up to
760,000
Up to
600,000
Only a few countries would have the ability to boost their production to replace the Russian oil cut off by sanctions.
4.8 million barrels per day
Saudi Arabia
and UAE
Iran
Venezuela
U.S.
Up to 2.5 million
barrels per day of
additional production
Up to
1.3 million
Up to
760,000
Up to
600,000
Only a few countries would have the ability to boost their production to replace the Russian oil cut off by sanctions.
4.8 million barrels per day
Saudi Arabia
and UAE
Iran
Venezuela
U.S.
Up to 2.5 million
barrels per day of
additional production
Up to
1.3 million
Up to
760,000
Up to
600,000
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
These two countries control about 2 million to 2.5 million barrels a day or more of spare capacity but are restraining output to keep prices high and to keep a cushion for even greater crises.
Most of that spare capacity rests in the hands of the Saudi kingdom, often known as the central bank of oil. The IEA already expects the UAE to raise output by 400,000 barrels a day. Iraq and Kuwait could increase output slightly.
All four countries are members of the 62-year-old Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which started meeting with non-OPEC countries about five years ago to more effectively curtail supply and boost prices. The combined group — which is known as OPEC+ and includes Russia — met recently and did not change production quotas. So far, the Saudi-Russia alliance appears to be working, despite President Biden’s entreaties that the kingdom put more oil onto world markets.
Iran
If negotiations over Iran’s effort to develop nuclear weapons succeed, and if trade sanctions are then lifted, Iran could boost its crude oil exports by as much as 1.3 million barrels a day.
But the negotiations have been arduous and have been complicated by the fact that Russia must sign off on any accord with Iran. Last week, Russia presented a new condition: a U.S. guarantee that the sanctions that have been imposed on Moscow for invading Ukraine will not be applied to Russian trade and investment with Iran. Even without this condition, Iran is supposed to open its facilities to verification before sanctions are lifted.
Venezuela
Though it is one of the five founding members of OPEC, Venezuela has suffered from poor management and tough U.S. sanctions. It does not have the ability to switch on oil output overnight like Saudi Arabia, but Biden administration officials have started reaching out to its leaders amid the crisis. Its wells need extensive maintenance, but with Western assistance and capital investment Venezuela could squeeze out as much as half a million to 600,000 barrels a day within a few months or a year.
But tensions remain between the United States and Venezuela, which has been run by populist dictators. The goals of the U.S. sanctions have not been met. Moreover, the Venezuelan oil fields pose some of the world’s gravest environmental concerns.
United States
The United States might also be a source of new streams of oil; the Energy Information Administration forecasts a 760,000-barrel-a-day increase in U.S. production in 2022, bringing it to 12 million barrels a day. Some industry executives say the increase could be as much as 1 million barrels a day, mostly from shale oil. This increase would take weeks or months.
Where can Russia turn if more countries impose sanctions on its oil?
Russia could lose some market share if other countries step in. But prices are high even after traders insist on $25-to-$30 discounts on Russia’s oil.
The Kremlin can look to China, a growing customer. Or it can look to India, which imports nearly 85 percent of its 4.3 million-barrel-a-day crude requirements but gets less than 3 percent of that from Russia, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Platts Analytics.
Import and export numbers for crude oil and related products come from Trade Data Monitor and generally cover 12 months ending in October 2021. Data for countries’ future production potential comes from the IEA, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Rapidan Energy Group and RBC Capital Markets. Editing by Monica Ulmanu and Juliet Eilperin.