A crisis at South Africa’s predominant electricity supplier, Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., threatens the nation’s economy. The state-owned utility can’t manage to cover its costs or make the huge interest payments on its mountain of debt. Its poorly maintained power plants are struggling to meet demand, and it’s about to lose its 10th chief executive officer in as many years. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. describes Eskom as the biggest risk to the country’s economy. The government has increased and accelerated a bailout for the utility while planning to split it into three entities in the hope of reviving its fortunes.

1. Why is Eskom in such bad shape?

South Africa could produce more electricity than it needed when white-minority rule ended in 1994, but the government didn’t foresee how sharply demand would spike as the economy expanded and previously neglected black areas were connected to the grid. Eskom announced a series of multibillion-dollar investments after the authorities awoke to the severity of the problem in the mid-2000s, but the projects came too late and took too long to build. The Medupi and Kusile coal-fired plants, two of the world’s biggest, were supposed to be fully operational in 2015, but are still years away from completion and running way over budget.

2. What’s the problem now?

A lack of money forced the utility, which provides about 95% of the nation’s power, to cut back on maintenance and repairs to other plants, and it lacks key technical skills needed to do the work, despite having a bloated workforce. Plants that produce more than half Eskom’s power are at, or nearing, their ideal retirement age. The country has experienced intermittent power outages since late 2005.

3. Where was management?

The utility went through repeated board and management changes during the almost nine years Jacob Zuma was South Africa’s president. Investigations by lawmakers and the nation’s graft ombudsman resulted in allegations that the upheaval was part of an orchestrated attempt by Zuma’s allies to raid Eskom’s coffers with his tacit consent. Accusations that the utility was looted are now being investigated by a judicial commission. Zuma and his allies deny wrongdoing.

4. How precarious are Eskom’s finances?

Very. By its own admission, it’s in a “death spiral.” It was saddled with 440 billion rand ($30 billion) worth of debt at the end of March and its solvency is at risk. Sales volumes are at a decade low and continue to fall as the economy stagnates. Increasing numbers of businesses and middle-class consumers have moved off the grid as the price of renewable energy drops. Meanwhile, near-bankrupt municipalities are falling behind in paying their bills as customers in impoverished townships default on their debts or steal power through illegal connections.

5. What’s being done to fix it?

Eskom’s board and management were replaced in January 2018, the month after Cyril Ramaphosa succeeded Zuma as head of the ruling party, the African National Congress. Phakamani Hadebe was named CEO, but he says he will leave at the end of July because his health is suffering due to the “unimaginable demands” of the job. The new management has made a concerted effort to stamp out graft, and a number of tainted senior executives and staff have left the company. After the ANC forced Zuma to step down, Ramaphosa was named South African president in February 2018 and lawmakers re-elected him May 22. Ramaphosa plans to split Eskom into separate generation, distribution and transmission businesses under a state holding company, a reorganization he says will enable each unit to manage its costs more effectively and make it easier for them to raise funding.

6. What about a financial lifeline?

The budget announced on Feb. 20 included an almost $5 billion cash injection over the next three years to help Eskom service its debt and free up money for operations. The government added another $4.2 billion of funds through 2021 in a special appropriations bill in July. As the financial aid grows, the National Treasury is trying to stick to debt ceilings and preserve the country’s sole remaining investment-grade credit rating. The company is also considering selling assets and firing thousands of workers. That proposition would meet with fierce resistance from labor unions, which also oppose the breakup plan.

7. What happens if the rescue fails?

The total collapse of Eskom isn’t on the immediate horizon, and Ramaphosa has said the government won’t allow it to happen. If it were to cease operating or the grid were to collapse, South Africa’s economy would grind to a halt and many businesses would be driven into bankruptcy, triggering investor flight and multiple downgrades to the nation’s fragile credit rating -- as well as potential social unrest. Power cuts have already weighed on South Africa’s rand and bonds, and present a huge risk to smelters, mines and and other energy-intensive businesses.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mike Cohen in Cape Town at mcohen21@bloomberg.net;Paul Burkhardt in Johannesburg at pburkhardt@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Karl Maier at kmaier2@bloomberg.net, Andy Reinhardt, Antony Sguazzin

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