If stocks anticipate profits, investors expect something big when companies start reporting results. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has climbed 3.6 percent in a month, the best pre-earnings season in five years.
But Wall Street analysts have cut their estimates for S&P 500 income growth by more than half. At 3.6 percent, they're predicting the biggest slowdown since 2011.
Earnings are still increasing, and a lot of the revision reflects the effects of hurricanes. But the buoyancy is a case study in the glass-half-full attitude that has marked investor sentiment for more than a year, in which they've brushed aside North Korea, Brexit and President Trump's political entanglements. Add valuations that by some definitions exceed any but those at the top of the Internet bubble, and you have a recipe for anxiety.
"You're ignoring all the bad news, full speed ahead. Then a torpedo hits, and you're going to be blown up," said Tom Mangan of James Investment Research, which manages about $6 billion. The "market is expensive, and it's vulnerable."
The treasury will sell $42 billion of three-month bills and $36 billion of six-month bills Tuesday. They yielded 1.09 percent and 1.22 percent when issued. It will sell $35 billion of four-week bills and $20 billion of 52-week bills, also Tuesday; $20 billion of 10-year notes Wednesday; and $12 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday.