1. What’s the source of the turmoil?
Romanians have been protesting for the past two-and-a-half years against the ruling Social Democratic government. The controversy dates back to 2016, when the party, then led by Liviu Dragnea, won national elections. Dragnea was convicted the same year of trying to fix a referendum and was blocked from becoming prime minister. Instead, he ran the country from behind the scenes, allegedly instructing ministers to hijack an unprecedented anti-corruption drive that had begun to gain traction and to enact laws to shield him from prison as his legal difficulties mounted. Ultimately unsuccessful, his efforts sparked the biggest protests since communism, with crowds swelling to as many as a half-million people across the country. The Dragnea episode soured ties with the EU and drew comparisons to contemporary infringements of the rule of law in Poland and Hungary.
2. How did Romania get here?
After the end of communism, Romania set itself on a path to democracy and a free market economy, but progress has been spotty. The country has had 15 prime ministers during that time, with only two -- Adrian Nastase and Calin Popescu-Tariceanu -- serving their full four-year terms. Infighting has often toppled governments, including two in 2017. But there has also been a large helping of scandal. A fatal fire at a nightclub in 2015 brought down Premier Victor Ponta after it emerged that local officials had been bribed to look the other way on safety violations. The last three governments have been overshadowed by the legal and political dramas surrounding Dragnea.
3. Have there been periods of stability?
The times of least upheaval in Romania coincided with its joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the EU, when politicians were focused around consensual aims. The drive to EU accession, achieved in 2007, was especially beneficial in helping build public institutions and civil society. Still, lingering concerns over graft -- coupled with chaotic fiscal policy -- have kept Romania out of the passport-free Schengen travel area and slowed its adoption of the euro common currency, which now looks unlikely before 2024. The country’s 20 million people haven’t been patient: Despite improving economic conditions, hundreds of thousands have emigrated west, mostly to Spain, Italy and the U.K.
4. What’s endangering the current government?
Romania has churned through four prime ministers since the pivotal 2016 election. The current leader is Viorica Dancila, a Social Democrat and the country’s first female premier, who took office in January 2018. After her former party boss Dragnea was convicted of abuse of office and sent to prison in May 2019, Dancila took over as party leader and started to reverse the policies he had pushed his proxies to carry out. The shift was welcomed by the EU. But her government suddenly stumbled in July when she announced plans to run for president in November elections -- a job coveted by the leader of her junior coalition partner, who promptly took his party out of the government, causing Dancila to lose her parliamentary majority.
5. Where do things go from here?
Dancila is fighting for her political survival. Parliamentary opponents have filed a no-confidence motion that could topple the government and force snap elections next January, as much as a year sooner than originally planned. It would be the first early parliamentary vote in Romania’s post-communist history. Polls show the opposition Liberal Party in the lead, with the center-left Social Democrats and an upstart center-right party vying for second place. That might give rise to a new prime minister and a governing coalition of parties that promise to take Romania closer to the EU and further away from Dragnea’s legacy.
6. What’s at stake for Romania’s economy?
Despite all the political chaos, Romania has largely prospered in the past three decades, especially in the years before and after the 2008 global financial crisis. Incomes have risen as vibrant technology and auto-making sectors fuel one of the EU’s fastest-growing economies. But generous tax cuts and public-sector pay rises pushed by Dragnea -- aimed at keeping voters onside -- have taken their toll on the budget and curbed domestic and foreign investment.
--With assistance from Irina Vilcu and Andrew Langley.
To contact the reporters on this story: Andrea Dudik in Prague at email@example.com;Andra Timu in Bucharest at firstname.lastname@example.org
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