1. What triggered all this?
Vizcarra came to power in 2018 when his predecessor, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, resigned amid allegations he bought votes to avoid impeachment. Vizcarra was soon clashing with lawmakers himself over his proposals to stamp out graft in the judiciary and politics. With his public approval ratings high, he dissolved Congress 13 months ago. But the warring continued with the replacement legislature. The president had no party to defend him when prosecutors began investigating as-yet unproven allegations from construction executives that he’d taken about $638,000 in kickbacks when he was a regional governor.
2. Was the ouster constitutional?
Peru’s constitution allows for the president’s impeachment on the grounds of “permanent moral incapacity.” Lawmakers cited that article to justify starting proceedings against Vizcarra for allegedly lying when he denied the accusations. The country’s Constitutional Court may reinterpret that article next month when it rules on a lawsuit filed by Vizcarra’s administration during a first impeachment effort in September. The Organization of American States said it expects the court to opine on the “legality and legitimacy” of Vizcarra’s impeachment.
3. Where does that leave the political situation?
It’s tense. Vizcarra is still popular and his ouster has triggered ever larger street protests by mainly young Peruvians who see the impeachment as an illegitimate power grab by self-serving politicians. In a recent Ipsos poll, 78% were opposed to his ouster and 54% approved of his government. Just 22% approved of the head of congress, Manuel Merino, who has now taken leave from that position to assume the presidency. A lawmaker with the centrist Popular Action party, Merino has reiterated that a general election will go ahead as scheduled on April 11. He will have to navigate between protesters and the demands of allies in an emboldened legislature.
4. How widespread is corruption?
Graft is pervasive at many levels. In recent years scandals have revealed rampant corruption among the country’s elites. In 2018, anti-narcotics police threw the justice system into crisis when they uncovered a judicial corruption ring with contacts in Congress. The case came hot on the heels of the Carwash bribery scandal, in which it was revealed that the Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht had been paying off leaders across Latin America. The scandal came to implicate four of Peru’s presidents. Corruption has displaced crime as Peruvians’ biggest concern in recent years.
5. Have political battles always been so bitter?
Yes. Leaders have been overthrown, mostly by force, during the almost 200 years of the Peruvian republic. The current political establishment is fractured and presidents rarely win a strong mandate from voters. The country’s 130-seat, single chamber congress has nine parties, some of which are also divided. In the 2016 general election, Vizcarra’s predecessor, Kuczynski, won just 18 seats, making him vulnerable to opposition attacks.
6. Why have the congress and the presidency been at such odds?
This congress has been proposing populist legislation, such as capping interest rates on bank loans, since it took office in March this year amid the pandemic, and the government has opposed many of the bills. Vizcarra passed a constitutional reform in 2018 banning re-election for lawmakers, following a referendum. In the minds of some observers, that gave them one less reason to take a responsible, long-term approach to lawmaking.
7. What impact does this instability have?
Bonds and stock prices have begun to claw back losses after dropping immediately after Vizcarra’s ouster. The impact of political turbulence on Peruvian assets is often muted. Peru has some of Latin America’s strongest economic fundamentals, which reassures foreign investors, but its instability is damaging for local business sentiment, which weighs on growth.
8. How bad has the epidemic been there?
Almost as bad as it gets. Peru’s per-capita death toll is among the highest in the world, despite a severe lockdown early in the pandemic that crushed the economy. The government estimates about a third of the population has had the coronavirus. Daily infections and deaths have been falling sharply since August.
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