What is the projected storm track?

Ian swept over western Cuba early Tuesday and then entered the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to pass just to the west of Dry Tortugas, bringing likely hurricane conditions to the archipelago about 65 miles west of Key West, before turning northeastward toward Florida’s Gulf Coast. Where it will make landfall remains difficult to forecast with precision. The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast advisory predicts that the center of the storm will come ashore between Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday between the Tampa Bay region and Fort Myers, about 90 miles to the southeast. The exact path depends on how Ian interacts with other weather systems — particularly, a dip in the jet stream capable of pulling the storm eastward as it heads north. Regardless of where Ian makes landfall, though, hurricane-force winds and major flooding are possible across a wide swath of Florida. A hurricane warning is in effect from the Tampa Bay region to Bonita Springs, indicating a threat of winds in excess of 74 mph. Tropical storm warnings, which indicate threats of winds 39 to 73 mph, are in place on the Gulf Coast from the Suwannee River in North Florida to the Anclote River near Tampa; in southeastern Florida from Bonita Beach through the Everglades; across the lower and middle Florida Keys; and on the Atlantic coast from Boca Raton northward to Altamaha Sound, Ga.

When will the storm hit?

While Ian is forecast to make landfall sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening, its winds, rain and waves will be felt long before that. Tropical storm-force winds of 39 to 73 mph are expected to arrive along Florida’s southwestern coast as early as Tuesday night or very early Wednesday, and will spread up the coast as Ian moves to the north and northeast. The entire lower half of Florida could be experiencing tropical storm-force winds by Wednesday morning, and they could reach northern Florida and southern Georgia by Wednesday night. As Ian’s core approaches land from around midday into the afternoon Wednesday, areas close to landfall will see progressively stronger winds — potentially 110 mph or greater at the coast between Tampa and Cape Coral. The storm’s heavy rains and thunderstorms — some of which brought tornado warnings — were already spreading over the lower half of Florida by Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation is expected to continue into Thursday in southern Florida and into Friday and the weekend for northern Florida and the Southeast.

How strong might Ian get?

The warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico have helped fuel Ian to become a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. Computer models forecast that Ian will continue to intensify Tuesday, probably reaching Category 4 strength, with winds of 140 mph, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Ian’s landfall intensity, however, depends on how quickly it comes ashore. As it moves north, the storm is expected to encounter wind shear — differences in wind speeds and directions at varying altitudes — and drier air. So if Ian quickly turns into Florida’s west coast Wednesday, it could remain a Category 3 or higher hurricane. However, if it slows down and doesn’t make landfall until later Wednesday night or early Thursday farther north toward the Florida Panhandle of the Big Bend area, it is expected to weaken.

What will the storm surge be like around Tampa?

Storm surge could be one of Ian’s biggest threats to Florida — it is a storm-driven rise in ocean water above dry land that can move onto shore with devastating force. And the Tampa Bay region is extremely vulnerable to severe flooding because it is so low-lying and has experienced significant sea level rise. Any storm hitting the region head-on from the southwest would send a surge of floodwaters up Tampa Bay, with nowhere to go but inland. That alarming scenario remains possible, but based on the latest forecasts, the highest storm surge is expected just to the south of Tampa Bay. Weather forecasting models on Tuesday were increasingly suggesting a storm track slightly southward of previous predictions. As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the hurricane center predicted 8 to 12 feet of storm surge between Bonita Beach and Longboat Key, with 5 to 8 feet along Tampa Bay to the north.

What is a spaghetti model?

Spaghetti models are used to forecast the different routes a storm may travel. The models are generally used to understand a storm’s potential path. The colorful strands shown on spaghetti plots reflect different model simulations, which are computerized representations of a storm that rely on data taken from satellites, weather balloons and the ocean. Some spaghetti plots illustrate the simulations from many different models. Others show a group of simulations from within the same modeling system. In any spaghetti plot, the proximity of the lines reflects how much the simulations are in agreement. The closer the lines, the higher the confidence in the predicted storm track. Where the lines diverge, there is low confidence in the storm’s course. Spaghetti models are very useful to meteorologists but have some major limitations: They don’t forecast storm strength, and they can’t predict the magnitude of a storm’s impact.

What is the difference between a tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane?

All three are shades of the same thing: a tropical cyclone, or an organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that rotate around an area of low pressure, developing in warm tropical waters. Whether a cyclone is categorized as a depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane depends on how well-organized it is and how intense its winds are. Depressions are the least organized and have maximum sustained winds of up to 38 mph. Once a cyclone strengthens enough to have maximum sustained winds of 39 mph to 73 mph, it becomes a tropical storm and gets a name from a World Meteorological Organization list , which changes from year to year. Hurricanes are tropical cyclones with maximum winds of 74 mph or greater, categorized on a scale of 1 to 5 based on their wind speed. A hurricane is considered a “major” storm if its winds exceed 111 mph, ranking as a Category 3 hurricane.

Why do so many hurricanes hit Florida?

That is a function of meteorology and geography. Florida has the second-longest coastline — 1,350 miles — among states, behind Alaska, and it juts into warm waters that serve as fuel for developing tropical cyclones. Storms are more likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico in September and October, making the state especially hurricane-prone this time of year.

Weather

What to know about Hurricane Ian, the storm approaching Florida

Ian has intensified into a major hurricane bound to hit Florida’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

By Capital Weather Gang

Updated September 27, 2022 at 5:06 p.m. EDT|Published September 23, 2022 at 6:19 p.m. EDT

Satellite view of Hurricane Ian on Tuesday. (NOAA)

Hurricane Ian struck western Cuba early Tuesday with sustained 115 mph winds, and could be even stronger when it makes an expected landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

It will be the first hurricane to hit the Sunshine State since Michael in 2018 and could at least briefly become the strongest September hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Rita in 2005.

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Here are answers to some frequently asked questions about the storm.