Maps show how millions of people have moved into Hurricane Ian’s path

As Stephen Strader has watched Hurricane Ian barreling toward Florida’s west coast, he cannot stop thinking about all that lies in its path.

“What if Hurricane Ian had occurred in 1950? How many people would be affected?” said Strader, a hazards geographer and professor at Villanova University. “Not nearly as many as now. Our built environment is expanding and growing.”

Florida’s allure has been a constant for generations. But recent decades have brought more transplants — and more development — than ever. In few places is that more apparent than along the swath of coastline facing disastrous impacts from Ian, from the Tampa Bay area south to Fort Myers and Naples.

From 1970 to 2020, census records show, the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area grew an astounding 623 percent, to more than 760,000 people. Over that same period, the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton area grew to 283 percent to nearly 834,000 residents. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater saw growth of more than 187 percent and is now home to more than 3.1 million people.

Housing density

Rural

Exurban

Suburban

Urban

Cape Coral–Fort Myers metro area had a

620% increase in population since 1970

1970

1980

Fort Myers

Cape

Coral

1990

2000

2010

2020

North Port-Sarasota–Bradenton +280%

1970

1980

Bradenton

Sarasota

1990

2000

2010

2020

Tampa Bay–St. Petersburg–Clearwater

+190%

1970

1980

Clearwater

Tampa

St. Petersburg

1990

2000

2010

2020

20 MILES

Housing density

Rural

Exurban

Suburban

Urban

Cape Coral–Fort Myers metro area had a 620%

increase in population since 1970

1970

1980

Fort Myers

Cape Coral

1990

2000

2010

2020

North Port-Sarasota–Bradenton +280%

1970

1980

Bradenton

Sarasota

1990

2000

2010

2020

Tampa Bay–St. Petersburg–Clearwater +190%

1970

1980

Tampa

Clearwater

St. Petersburg

1990

2000

2010

2020

20 MILES

Housing density

Rural

Exurban

Suburban

Urban

Cape Coral–Fort Myers metro area had a 620% increase in population since 1970

1970

1980

1990

Fort Myers

Cape Coral

2000

2010

2020

North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton +280% since 1970

1970

1980

1990

Bradenton

Sarasota

2000

2010

2020

Tampa Bay–St. Petersburg–Clearwater +190% since 1970

1970

1980

1990

Tampa

Clearwater

St. Petersburg

2000

2010

2020

20 MILES

Strader said the population surge in Florida in recent decades — along with the building boom that has accompanied it — has put exponentially more assets and more people in harm’s way.

“People want to live near the coasts and live near the beach, but that comes with a cost. Unfortunately, we have to bear the brunt of that risk,” Strader said. “There are more people than ever before in the path of these storms. Plus, a lot of people are going to be experiencing a hurricane for the first time.”

Development in harm’s way

Port Charlotte

2020

Fort Myers

Cape Coral

FORECAST

INUNDATION

AREA

Naples

1970

FORECAST

INUNDATION

AREA

20 MILES

National Hurricane Center forecast as of 5 a.m. Eastern Wednesday, Sept. 28

Development in harm’s way

Port Charlotte

2020

Fort Myers

Cape Coral

FORECAST

INUNDATION

AREA

Naples

1970

FORECAST

INUNDATION

AREA

20 MILES

National Hurricane Center forecast as of 5 a.m. Eastern Wednesday, Sept. 28

Development in harm’s way

Port Charlotte

2020

1970

Fort Myers

Cape Coral

FORECAST

INUNDATION

AREA

FORECAST

INUNDATION

AREA

20 MILES

Naples

National Hurricane Center forecast as of 5 a.m. Eastern Wednesday, Sept. 28

Development in harm’s way

Port Charlotte

2020

1970

Fort Myers

Cape Coral

FORECAST

INUNDATION

AREA

FORECAST

INUNDATION

AREA

20 MILES

Naples

National Hurricane Center forecast as of 5 a.m. Eastern Wednesday, Sept. 28

Strader and fellow researchers refer to such looming risks as the “expanding bull’s eye” effect — the notion that as more humans populate and build in an area, it creates an ever-larger opportunity for a weather-related disaster to wreak havoc.

“Then throw on sea-level rise and climate change on top of that, and you are looking at a multi-headed monster,” Strader said.

Cities in Florida are well aware of the risks. The Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, for instance, has simulated what the damage and recovery might look like from a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane, in hopes of helping local leaders plan for the scenarios that might unfold.

But even those efforts have done little to stop the feverish development in the state — a reality that persists in many coastal regions around the country.

“Everybody in the room agrees this is a major problem that we still haven’t come to grips with,” said Rob Young, a professor of geology at Western Carolina University and director of the Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines. “This is a national problem. But Florida has been particularly good at putting more things in harm’s way.”

Karen Clark’s Boston-based firm, which models the potential impacts of disasters, has estimated that a direct hit on Florida’s coast could cost many billions of dollars in losses, in part because of the population and housing growth that has defined recent decades. But where a storm ultimately comes ashore and how it behaves afterward are key.

“Hurricanes are like real estate. The three most important things are location, location, location,” Clark said, adding, “Very slight shifts in the path of this storm could mean that the losses change by a factor. That’s what we are watching.”

This much is certain: Almost anywhere Ian could have made landfall is home to far more people and many more assets than only a generation ago.

“It’s going to affect more people than ever before,” Strader said. “We really haven’t done much to check this growth … What we are finding out is that is not sustainable.”

Naema Ahmed contributed to this report.