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Record November warmth is on the way up and down the East Coast

Temperatures in the 70s and 80s are forecast through Monday, with strong potential for shattered records

Unusually strong high pressure over the East Coast will help keep it warm into next week. (
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Temperatures approaching the highest levels observed so late in the year are headed to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, as a rare November heat dome bakes the East Coast into next week.

Dozens of record highs are at risk through Monday. The unusual temperatures start in the Midwest on Friday before shifting east. On Monday alone, more than four dozen locations from Florida to Maine could see records fall.

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Record-high overnight minimum temperatures are also possible across the several-day stretch. The record-warm lows will be more like the average highs this time of year, or even warmer in some areas such as New York and New England.

Afternoon temperatures as high as the mid-70s, some 20 degrees above normal, are expected to reach to New York’s border with Canada over the weekend. Those springlike values are embedded in a swath of 70s draped across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic into early next week. More 80s are on the way across much of the Southeast, including the Carolinas and southward into Florida.

Parts of Florida may approach 90 during this summerlike resurgence.

That mark has already been surpassed this month in southern reaches of the state, a region recently dealing with some of the toastiest weather this late in the year as recovery from Hurricane Ian continues. Punta Gorda, Fla., posted its highest November temperature on record this week, when the thermometer topped out at 93.

According to Maximiliano Herrera, who tracks weather extremes around the globe, Lake Wales, Fla. — about 50 miles east of Tampa — hit 95 on Wednesday, tying the highest temperature ever recorded in Florida during November.

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Where records could fall

Friday’s potential for record highs will focus along the central and southern Mississippi River valley from St. Louis to Little Rock to Tupelo, Miss., where highs are projected to reach the low 80s.

On Saturday, the record-challenging warmth is forecast to concentrate in the interior Northeast, with mid-70s in Buffalo, Burlington, Vt., and Boston. Then, it will expand south and east Sunday and Monday. Record highs are predicted to be most numerous on Monday.

East Coast record highs that may fall Monday include 80 in Raleigh-Durham, N.C., (forecast: 81); 79 in Atlanta (forecast: 80); 77 in Washington (forecast: 79); 76 in Philadelphia (forecast: 78); and 63 in Caribou, Maine, (forecast: 65).

Once readings rise into the mid-70s to around 80 this far into November, they also approach the highest values measured so deep in the calendar year. Newark, Atlantic City, Albany, N.Y., and Worcester, Mass., could approach those levels Sunday and Monday.

If Washington reaches 79 on Monday, as forecast by the National Weather Service, it will fall just outside the top 10 warmest readings so late in the year. A high of 80 would be among the top five latest highs of 80 or more on record. As recently as 2015, a high of 80 was recorded on Nov. 6 in the District.

While a cold front will put an end to the record-challenging temperatures on Tuesday, the broader pattern is still one that supports warmth through at least late next week. Another surge of abnormally mild temperatures may occur before any significant cool down.

The intensity of the predicted warmth is made more probable by human-caused climate change. In recent decades, the number of record highs being set has vastly outnumbered record lows nationwide.