Judging from heavy participation in the Powerball and Mega Millions jackpots, many Americans love lotteries. But when such randomized selection systems have been used lately to decide who gets into popular high schools, they have inspired bitter debates and lawsuits.
The debate over such systems is often confusing and misleading. Frequently overlooked is the fact that many long-used admissions processes, particularly in our most revered colleges, also are quite random but don’t get as many complaints, in part because the schools involved are considered national treasures.
Jefferson High was built in 1965 and became a magnet school admitting students on academic merit in 1985. It is often the most selective high school in the country, public or private, as measured by the average SAT scores of its students.
Lowell, under another name, became in 1856 the first U.S. public high school west of the Mississippi. It has long selected students on the basis of grades and test scores, but, in recent decades, it has not had average SAT scores as high as some Bay Area public schools that admit anyone living in their affluent neighborhoods.
The Fairfax County schools superintendent proposed in fall 2020 a lottery-like admissions system for Jefferson, but the school board said no. Lowell has adopted a lottery system because of issues with grades and test scores during the pandemic. It is set to expire in the next school year, but the school board wants to keep it. Reformers also have suggested lottery-like admissions for selective public schools in Boston, New York City and other places, but many people don’t like what sounds to them like picking names out of a hat.
Influential people wanted to try lotteries at Lowell and Jefferson for the same reason. They did not like the fact that Black, Hispanic and impoverished students were underrepresented. Jefferson, with 1.7 percent of students low-income and 5 percent Black or Hispanic, was less welcoming to such students than Lowell, with 36 percent of students low-income and 14 percent Hispanic or Black.
The largest ethnic group at both schools is of Asian descent. This has happened at some other selective high schools. I can’t find research on this, but one reason may be that Asian American culture is more focused on academic achievement. Lawsuits have been filed in both San Francisco and Fairfax County, arguing that new admissions systems wrongly reduce the number of Asian American students accepted.
The new randomized lottery system at Lowell produced the largest number of Black and Hispanic freshmen in at least 25 years, up from 16 percent to 30 percent of that class. Jefferson also got more low-income, Black and Hispanic admissions out of a new non-lottery system that gave personal background some weight, one of several points of controversy in the lawsuits that have been filed.
While we fret over selective high school admissions, the random nature of our system for picking students for selective universities doesn’t get much attention. Ivy League admissions officers work hard to make sure each year they create a new class of freshmen that is both diverse and talented. But from the perspective of an individual applicant who knows the chance of admission can be as low as 5 percent, the process looks pretty random. Experienced admissions people at such colleges say that with the exception a few uniquely gifted students, those they admit are not clearly superior to many of the students they reject or put on bloated wait lists.
A new documentary about Lowell, “Try Harder!,” goes deep into the lives of students on that campus struggling with college admissions systems that don’t make sense to them. The students seem less concerned about the difficulties they encountered getting into their ancient and excellent high school. I think this is in part because the San Francisco district (57,000 students), like the Fairfax County district (178,000 students), has other schools with courses and teachers just as good.
If ninth-graders don’t get into Lowell, there are four other San Francisco campuses in the top 5 percent of U.S. high schools measured by participation in Advanced Placement and International Baccalaureate courses and exams on my Challenge Index list. AP and IB are important for college preparation. Fairfax County has 16 high schools other than Jefferson in the top 5 percent.
Families are understandably pleased to have their children admitted to Jefferson, Lowell or other selective high schools. But I can find no research showing those students do better in college or life than similarly talented graduates of lower-performing high schools.
Complaints about randomized high school admissions often overlook the fact that only the most ambitious students are likely to apply to such demanding schools. Wanting to go to a school like Lowell or Jefferson reveals a desire to succeed that, as many of us learn in life, in the long run is more important than whatever high school we attended.
This is particularly true of the intellectual superstars who critics fear will not get into the best schools because of randomized admissions. I sense there are great teachers in nearly every school who will detect such students and make sure they get the special attention and freedom they need.
Those students’ parents are also likely to supply enriching experiences they would not find in most schools. Our country is blessed to have so many opportunities for young people like that.