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Virginia election House of Delegates results

Last Updated: Nov 6, 2019, 1:51 PM EST

Democrats have taken control of Virginia’s House of Delegates by flipping at least five seats in the chamber. Republicans won the House in 2017 by the thinnest of margins — when a state elections official pulled Republican candidate David E. Yancey’s name from a bowl, breaking a tie with Democratic candidate Shelly Simonds.

The race for control

Democrat called/leading

Republican called/leading

Other candidates called/leading*

< 10% reporting

House of Delegates

54 Democrats Check
43 Republicans
EVEN

*Third party or total write-in

Democrats capitalized on a rush of excitement to nominate candidates in 92 of 100 state House districts — a record for modern elections — while Republicans had candidates in only 72 of them. While Democrats were energized by Trump in this bellwether for 2020, Virginia Republicans were counting on an influx of outside spending to help them hold back the tide.

Alexandria

Roanoke

Virginia Beach

Charlottesville

Richmond

Called/leading Republican

Called/leading Democrat

Leading write-in

Estimated turnout

So far 823,694 Democratic votes, 860,993 Republican votes and 55,187 votes for other candidates have been counted statewide for all contested House of Delegates races. We estimate this is more than three-quarters of expected turnout.

All results

39Likely Democrat

11Leaning Democrat

10Tossups

4Leaning Republican

36Likely Republican

DistrictDem.Rep.Other
260.9%39.1%-
11Unc.
1356.9%43.1%-
32Unc.
3458.4%41.6%-
35Unc.
36Unc.
37Unc.
38Unc.
3968.4%31.6%-
4172.9%-7.9%
4259.7%40.3%-
4379.1%-20.9%
4470.8%29.2%-
45Unc.
46Unc.
47Unc.
48Unc.
4984.0%-16.0%
5053.4%46.6%-
5154.6%45.4%-
5273.6%26.4%-
53Unc.
57Unc.
6355.7%-44.3%
67Unc.
69Unc.
70Unc.
7188.5%-11.5%
74Unc.
77Unc.
79Unc.
8066.1%23.3%10.6%
86Unc.
8762.0%38.0%-
89Unc.
90Unc.
92Unc.
95Unc.
DistrictDem.Rep.Other
1052.4%47.6%-
1253.6%46.4%-
2154.6%45.4%-
3152.7%47.3%-
4053.2%46.8%-
6855.3%44.7%-
7253.3%46.7%-
7352.4%47.6%-
7551.0%49.0%-
9355.7%44.3%-
9457.8%40.3%1.9%
DistrictDem.Rep.Other
2645.9%54.1%-
2749.7%50.3%-
2852.0%48.0%-
6244.8%55.2%-
6647.1%51.7%1.2%
7656.4%43.6%-
8350.0%50.0%-
8551.7%48.3%-
9154.9%45.1%-
10048.1%51.9%-
DistrictDem.Rep.Other
3343.2%56.8%-
6033.7%66.3%-
8147.8%52.2%-
8448.8%51.2%-
DistrictDem.Rep.Other
1Unc.
3Unc.
437.0%63.0%-
5Unc.
624.7%75.3%-
733.2%66.8%-
833.5%66.5%-
9Unc.
1438.7%61.3%-
1525.5%74.5%-
16-74.9%25.1%
17Unc.
1839.2%60.8%-
19Unc.
2041.4%58.6%-
2230.9%69.1%-
2336.0%64.0%-
2432.7%66.1%1.2%
2540.0%58.2%1.8%
2935.1%64.9%-
3042.1%-57.9%
5442.0%58.0%-
5539.9%60.1%-
5639.0%61.0%-
5837.5%62.5%-
5936.7%63.3%-
6133.1%66.9%-
6439.8%60.2%-
6536.7%63.3%-
78Unc.
8240.7%59.3%-
8844.2%55.8%-
9646.4%52.6%1.1%
9726.6%55.7%17.7%
9831.0%69.0%-
9937.6%62.4%-
CandidatePct.Votes
Terry Kilgore*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Jennifer Foy*DEMCheck
60.9%11,771
Heather MitchellGOP
39.17,544
Total votes from 100% of precincts19,315
* Incumbent

19,315 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Will Morefield*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
William WamplerGOPCheck
63.0%14,382
Starla KiserDEM
37.08,458
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,840

22,840 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Israel O'Quinn*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Jeffrey Campbell*GOPCheck
75.3%16,877
James BarkerDEM
24.75,549
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,426
* Incumbent

22,426 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Larry Rush*GOPCheck
66.8%13,833
Rhonda SeltzDEM
33.26,875
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,708
* Incumbent

20,708 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Joseph McNamara*GOPCheck
66.5%15,190
Darlene LewisDEM
33.57,669
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,859
* Incumbent

22,859 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Charles Poindexter*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Wendy Gooditis*DEMCheck
52.4%16,047
Randall MinchewGOP
47.614,553
Total votes from 100% of precincts30,600
* Incumbent

30,600 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Sam Rasoul*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Chris Hurst*DEMCheck
53.6%11,133
Forrest HiteGOP
46.49,642
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,775
* Incumbent

20,775 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Danica Roem*DEMCheck
56.9%10,741
Kelly McGinnGOP
43.18,137
Total votes from 100% of precincts18,878
* Incumbent

18,878 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Danny Marshall*GOPCheck
61.3%12,136
Eric StampsDEM
38.77,650
Total votes from 100% of precincts19,786
* Incumbent

19,786 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Todd Gilbert*GOPCheck
74.5%18,903
Beverly HarrisonDEM
25.56,487
Total votes from 100% of precincts25,390
* Incumbent

25,390 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Les Adams*GOPCheck
74.9%13,144
Dustin EvansLIB
25.14,400
Total votes from 100% of precincts17,544
* Incumbent

17,544 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Christopher Head*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Michael Webert*GOPCheck
60.8%16,640
Laura GalanteDEM
39.210,720
Total votes from 100% of precincts27,360
* Incumbent

27,360 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Terry Austin*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
John AvoliGOPCheck
58.6%14,704
Jennifer LewisDEM
41.410,399
Total votes from 100% of precincts25,103

25,103 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Kelly Convirs-Fowler*DEMCheck
54.6%12,399
Shannon KaneGOP
45.410,298
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,697
* Incumbent

22,697 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Kathy Byron*GOPCheck
69.1%14,397
Jennifer WoofterDEM
30.96,452
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,849
* Incumbent

20,849 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Wendell WalkerGOPCheck
64.0%13,529
David ZillesDEM
36.07,606
Total votes from 100% of precincts21,135

21,135 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Ronnie Campbell*GOPCheck
66.1%15,648
Christian WorthDEM
32.77,735
Eli FishpawIND
1.2292
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,675
* Incumbent

23,675 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Chris RunionGOPCheck
58.2%16,742
Jennifer KitchenDEM
40.011,512
Janice AllenIND
1.8514
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,768

28,768 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Tony Wilt*GOPCheck
54.1%10,270
Brent FinneganDEM
45.98,722
Total votes from 100% of precincts18,992
* Incumbent

18,992 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Roxann Robinson*GOP
50.3%15,285
Larry BarnettDEM
49.715,094
Total votes from 88% of precincts30,379
* Incumbent

So far 30,379 votes have been counted in this race.Turnout has exceeded our estimates.

CandidatePct.Votes
Josh ColeDEMCheck
52.0%13,325
Paul MildeGOP
48.012,289
Total votes from 100% of precincts25,614

25,614 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Christopher Collins*GOPCheck
64.9%15,530
Irina KhaninDEM
35.18,391
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,921
* Incumbent

23,921 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Total Write-insNPD
57.9%15,116
Ann RidgewayDEM
42.110,996
Total votes from 100% of precincts26,112

26,112 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Elizabeth Guzman*DEMCheck
52.7%14,621
Darrell JordanGOP
47.313,114
Total votes from 100% of precincts27,735
* Incumbent

27,735 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
David Reid*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Dave LaRock*GOPCheck
56.8%17,664
Mavis TaintorDEM
43.213,425
Total votes from 100% of precincts31,089
* Incumbent

31,089 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Kathleen Murphy*DEMCheck
58.4%17,133
Gary PanGOP
41.612,206
Total votes from 100% of precincts29,339
* Incumbent

29,339 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Mark Keam*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Kenneth Plum*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
David Bulova*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Kaye Kory*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Vivian Watts*DEMCheck
68.4%15,553
Nick BellGOP
31.67,176
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,729
* Incumbent

22,729 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Dan HelmerDEMCheck
53.2%15,322
Tim Hugo*GOP
46.813,486
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,808
* Incumbent

28,808 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Eileen Filler-Corn*DEMCheck
72.9%17,302
John WolfeIND
19.24,568
Rachel MaceLIB
7.91,875
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,745
* Incumbent

23,745 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Kathy Tran*DEMCheck
59.7%16,167
Steve AdragnaGOP
40.310,903
Total votes from 95% of precincts27,070
* Incumbent

So far 27,070 votes have been counted in this race.Turnout has exceeded our estimates.

CandidatePct.Votes
Mark Sickles*DEMCheck
79.1%15,932
Gail ParkerIND
20.94,216
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,148
* Incumbent

20,148 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Paul Krizek*DEMCheck
70.8%13,713
Richard HaydenGOP
29.25,667
Total votes from 100% of precincts19,380
* Incumbent

19,380 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Mark Levine*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Charniele Herring*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Patrick Hope*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Richard Sullivan*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Alfonso Lopez*DEMCheck
84.0%13,586
Terry ModglinIND
16.02,586
Total votes from 100% of precincts16,172
* Incumbent

16,172 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Lee Carter*DEMCheck
53.4%10,693
Ian LovejoyGOP
46.69,333
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,026
* Incumbent

20,026 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Hala Ayala*DEMCheck
54.6%15,499
Richard AndersonGOP
45.412,872
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,371
* Incumbent

28,371 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Luke Torian*DEMCheck
73.6%10,903
Maria MartinGOP
26.43,907
Total votes from 100% of precincts14,810
* Incumbent

14,810 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Marcus Simon*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Robert Orrock*GOPCheck
58.0%13,623
Neri Canahui-OrtizDEM
42.09,850
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,473
* Incumbent

23,473 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
H.F. Fowler*GOPCheck
60.1%17,350
Morgan GoodmanDEM
39.911,497
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,847
* Incumbent

28,847 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
John McGuire*GOPCheck
61.0%20,243
Juanita MatkinsDEM
39.012,916
Total votes from 100% of precincts33,159
* Incumbent

33,159 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Sally HudsonCheck
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
CandidatePct.Votes
Robert Bell*GOPCheck
62.5%18,213
Elizabeth AlcornDEM
37.510,920
Total votes from 100% of precincts29,133
* Incumbent

29,133 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Matt Fariss*GOPCheck
63.3%16,444
Tim HickeyDEM
36.79,544
Total votes from 100% of precincts25,988
* Incumbent

25,988 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
James Edmunds*GOPCheck
66.3%14,461
Janie ZimmermanDEM
33.77,340
Total votes from 100% of precincts21,801
* Incumbent

21,801 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Thomas Wright*GOPCheck
66.9%15,472
Trudy BerryDEM
33.17,667
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,139
* Incumbent

23,139 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Carrie CoynerGOPCheck
55.2%13,174
Lindsey DoughertyDEM
44.810,701
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,875

23,875 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Lashrecse Aird*DEMCheck
55.7%12,789
Larry HaakeIND
44.310,190
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,979
* Incumbent

22,979 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Emily Brewer*GOPCheck
60.2%16,179
Michele JoyceDEM
39.810,700
Total votes from 100% of precincts26,879
* Incumbent

26,879 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Lee Ware*GOPCheck
63.3%24,710
Michael AsipDEM
36.714,326
Total votes from 100% of precincts39,036
* Incumbent

39,036 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Kirk Cox*GOPCheck
51.7%14,443
Sheila Bynum-ColemanDEM
47.113,139
Linnard HarrisIND
1.2342
Total votes from 100% of precincts27,924
* Incumbent

27,924 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Karrie Delaney*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Dawn Adams*DEMCheck
55.3%20,404
Garrison CowardGOP
44.716,512
Total votes from 100% of precincts36,916
* Incumbent

36,916 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Betsy Carr*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Delores McQuinn*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Jeffrey Bourne*DEMCheck
88.5%20,308
Pete WellsLIB
11.52,636
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,944
* Incumbent

22,944 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Schuyler VanValkenburg*DEMCheck
53.3%16,352
GayDonna VandergriffGOP
46.714,304
Total votes from 100% of precincts30,656
* Incumbent

30,656 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Rodney WillettDEMCheck
52.4%14,961
Mary Margaret KastelbergGOP
47.613,584
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,545

28,545 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Lamont Bagby*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Roslyn Tyler*DEMCheck
51.0%12,338
Otto WachsmannGOP
49.011,833
Total votes from 100% of precincts24,171
* Incumbent

24,171 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Clinton JenkinsDEMCheck
56.4%14,929
Chris Jones*GOP
43.611,540
Total votes from 100% of precincts26,469
* Incumbent

26,469 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
C. E. Hayes*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
James Leftwich*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Steve Heretick*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Don ScottDEMCheck
66.1%12,020
James EvansGOP
23.34,234
Ryan BentonIND
10.61,927
Total votes from 100% of precincts18,181

18,181 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Barry Knight*GOPCheck
52.2%11,573
Lenard MyersDEM
47.810,594
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,167
* Incumbent

22,167 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Jason Miyares*GOPCheck
59.3%15,765
Gayle JohnsonDEM
40.710,835
Total votes from 100% of precincts26,600
* Incumbent

26,600 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Nancy GuyDEM
50.0%10,958
Christopher Stolle*GOP
50.010,940
Total votes from 100% of precincts21,898
* Incumbent

21,898 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Glenn Davis*GOPCheck
51.2%10,577
Karen MallardDEM
48.810,078
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,655
* Incumbent

20,655 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Alex AskewDEMCheck
51.7%11,968
N. D. HolcombGOP
48.311,168
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,136

23,136 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Ibraheem Samirah*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Suhas SubramanyamDEMCheck
62.0%17,670
William DrennanGOP
38.010,813
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,483

28,483 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Mark Cole*GOPCheck
55.8%15,142
Jessica FosterDEM
44.212,008
Total votes from 100% of precincts27,150
* Incumbent

27,150 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Jerrauld Jones*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Joseph Lindsey*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Martha MuglerDEMCheck
54.9%11,526
Colleen HolcombGOP
45.19,481
Total votes from 100% of precincts21,007

21,007 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Jeion Ward*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Michael Mullin*DEMCheck
55.7%14,322
Heather CordascoGOP
44.311,391
Total votes from 100% of precincts25,713
* Incumbent

25,713 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Shelly SimondsDEMCheck
57.8%11,556
David Yancey*GOP
40.38,069
Michael BartleyLIB
1.9376
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,001
* Incumbent

20,001 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Marcia Price*Check
0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
CandidatePct.Votes
Amanda BattenGOPCheck
52.6%17,122
Mark DowneyDEM
46.415,104
James JobeLIB
1.1356
Total votes from 100% of precincts32,582

32,582 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Scott WyattGOPCheck
55.7%18,273
Kevin WashingtonDEM
26.68,713
Write InsNPD
17.75,793
Total votes from 100% of precincts32,779

32,779 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Keith Hodges*GOPCheck
69.0%18,695
Elizabeth WebsterDEM
31.08,393
Total votes from 100% of precincts27,088
* Incumbent

27,088 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Margaret Ransone*GOPCheck
62.4%17,798
Francis EdwardsDEM
37.610,709
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,507
* Incumbent

28,507 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

CandidatePct.Votes
Robert Bloxom*GOPCheck
51.9%11,866
Philip HernandezDEM
48.110,979
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,845
* Incumbent

22,845 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

Correction (Nov. 7): A previous version of this page listed the total votes cast for Democratic and Republican candidates, but mislabeled the figures as statewide totals. Only votes cast in contested races were included.

By Jason Bernert, Lenny Bronner, Madison Dong, Simon Glenn-Gregg, Jason Holt, Isabelle Lavandero, Erik Reyna, Ashlyn Still and Susan Tyler

Additional contributions from Laura Vozzella and Gregory S. Schneider

Sources: AP, Virginia Department of Elections


For the Virginia general election in 2019, The Washington Post has developed a model that estimates turnout for each state House and state Senate district before voting begins, then updates these estimates throughout the night as precincts report.

Previously, the best way for us to estimate votes remaining was to use the fraction of precincts that have reported their results, usually expressed like this: “50 out of 1,750 precincts reporting.” However, depending on early voting and the distribution of votes between precincts, this “precincts reporting” metric can be a misleading estimate of how many votes are actually left to be counted.

The foundation of our model is that past turnout predicts future turnout. We collected data from previous elections that most closely resembled this one and used these to form our base estimates for turnout in each state House and state Senate district. But a novel feature of our model is that it should respond to precincts that have already reported and update its estimates based on this new information. This is intuitive, as the same factors that might drive increased turnout in one precinct would likely drive increased turnout in other precincts within the same district. These kinds of factors might also suggest increased turnout across the entire election.

If you’re interested in additional details, we’ve published a full writeup on our engineering blog, and we’re also planning on making much of our model code public — so stay tuned!