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Virginia election House of Delegates results

Last Updated: Nov 6, 2019, 1:51 PM EST

Democrats have taken control of Virginia’s House of Delegates by flipping at least five seats in the chamber. Republicans won the House in 2017 by the thinnest of margins — when a state elections official pulled Republican candidate David E. Yancey’s name from a bowl, breaking a tie with Democratic candidate Shelly Simonds.

The race for control

Democrat called/leading

Republican called/leading

Other candidates called/leading*

< 10% reporting

House of Delegates

54 Democrats Check
43 Republicans
EVEN

*Third party or total write-in

Democrats capitalized on a rush of excitement to nominate candidates in 92 of 100 state House districts — a record for modern elections — while Republicans had candidates in only 72 of them. While Democrats were energized by Trump in this bellwether for 2020, Virginia Republicans were counting on an influx of outside spending to help them hold back the tide.

Alexandria

Roanoke

Virginia Beach

Charlottesville

Richmond

Called/leading Republican

Called/leading Democrat

Leading write-in

Estimated turnout

So far 823,694 Democratic votes, 860,993 Republican votes and 55,187 votes for other candidates have been counted statewide for all contested House of Delegates races. We estimate this is more than three-quarters of expected turnout.

All results

39Likely Democrat

11Leaning Democrat

10Tossups

4Leaning Republican

36Likely Republican

DistrictDem.Rep.Other
260.9%39.1%-
11Unc.
1356.9%43.1%-
32Unc.
3458.4%41.6%-
35Unc.
36Unc.
37Unc.
38Unc.
3968.4%31.6%-
4172.9%-7.9%
4259.7%40.3%-
4379.1%-20.9%
4470.8%29.2%-
45Unc.
46Unc.
47Unc.
48Unc.
4984.0%-16.0%
5053.4%46.6%-
5154.6%45.4%-
5273.6%26.4%-
53Unc.
57Unc.
6355.7%-44.3%
67Unc.
69Unc.
70Unc.
7188.5%-11.5%
74Unc.
77Unc.
79Unc.
8066.1%23.3%10.6%
86Unc.
8762.0%38.0%-
89Unc.
90Unc.
92Unc.
95Unc.
DistrictDem.Rep.Other
1052.4%47.6%-
1253.6%46.4%-
2154.6%45.4%-
3152.7%47.3%-
4053.2%46.8%-
6855.3%44.7%-
7253.3%46.7%-
7352.4%47.6%-
7551.0%49.0%-
9355.7%44.3%-
9457.8%40.3%1.9%
DistrictDem.Rep.Other
2645.9%54.1%-
2749.7%50.3%-
2852.0%48.0%-
6244.8%55.2%-
6647.1%51.7%1.2%
7656.4%43.6%-
8350.0%50.0%-
8551.7%48.3%-
9154.9%45.1%-
10048.1%51.9%-
DistrictDem.Rep.Other
3343.2%56.8%-
6033.7%66.3%-
8147.8%52.2%-
8448.8%51.2%-
DistrictDem.Rep.Other
1Unc.
3Unc.
437.0%63.0%-
5Unc.
624.7%75.3%-
733.2%66.8%-
833.5%66.5%-
9Unc.
1438.7%61.3%-
1525.5%74.5%-
16-74.9%25.1%
17Unc.
1839.2%60.8%-
19Unc.
2041.4%58.6%-
2230.9%69.1%-
2336.0%64.0%-
2432.7%66.1%1.2%
2540.0%58.2%1.8%
2935.1%64.9%-
3042.1%-57.9%
5442.0%58.0%-
5539.9%60.1%-
5639.0%61.0%-
5837.5%62.5%-
5936.7%63.3%-
6133.1%66.9%-
6439.8%60.2%-
6536.7%63.3%-
78Unc.
8240.7%59.3%-
8844.2%55.8%-
9646.4%52.6%1.1%
9726.6%55.7%17.7%
9831.0%69.0%-
9937.6%62.4%-
District 1
CandidatePct.Votes
Terry Kilgore*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 2
CandidatePct.Votes
Jennifer Foy*DEMCheck		60.9%11,771
Heather MitchellGOP		39.17,544
Total votes from 100% of precincts19,315
* Incumbent

19,315 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 3
CandidatePct.Votes
Will Morefield*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 4
CandidatePct.Votes
William WamplerGOPCheck		63.0%14,382
Starla KiserDEM		37.08,458
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,840

22,840 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 5
CandidatePct.Votes
Israel O'Quinn*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 6
CandidatePct.Votes
Jeffrey Campbell*GOPCheck		75.3%16,877
James BarkerDEM		24.75,549
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,426
* Incumbent

22,426 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 7
CandidatePct.Votes
Larry Rush*GOPCheck		66.8%13,833
Rhonda SeltzDEM		33.26,875
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,708
* Incumbent

20,708 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 8
CandidatePct.Votes
Joseph McNamara*GOPCheck		66.5%15,190
Darlene LewisDEM		33.57,669
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,859
* Incumbent

22,859 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 9
CandidatePct.Votes
Charles Poindexter*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 10
CandidatePct.Votes
Wendy Gooditis*DEMCheck		52.4%16,047
Randall MinchewGOP		47.614,553
Total votes from 100% of precincts30,600
* Incumbent

30,600 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 11
CandidatePct.Votes
Sam Rasoul*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 12
CandidatePct.Votes
Chris Hurst*DEMCheck		53.6%11,133
Forrest HiteGOP		46.49,642
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,775
* Incumbent

20,775 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 13
CandidatePct.Votes
Danica Roem*DEMCheck		56.9%10,741
Kelly McGinnGOP		43.18,137
Total votes from 100% of precincts18,878
* Incumbent

18,878 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 14
CandidatePct.Votes
Danny Marshall*GOPCheck		61.3%12,136
Eric StampsDEM		38.77,650
Total votes from 100% of precincts19,786
* Incumbent

19,786 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 15
CandidatePct.Votes
Todd Gilbert*GOPCheck		74.5%18,903
Beverly HarrisonDEM		25.56,487
Total votes from 100% of precincts25,390
* Incumbent

25,390 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 16
CandidatePct.Votes
Les Adams*GOPCheck		74.9%13,144
Dustin EvansLIB		25.14,400
Total votes from 100% of precincts17,544
* Incumbent

17,544 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 17
CandidatePct.Votes
Christopher Head*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 18
CandidatePct.Votes
Michael Webert*GOPCheck		60.8%16,640
Laura GalanteDEM		39.210,720
Total votes from 100% of precincts27,360
* Incumbent

27,360 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 19
CandidatePct.Votes
Terry Austin*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 20
CandidatePct.Votes
John AvoliGOPCheck		58.6%14,704
Jennifer LewisDEM		41.410,399
Total votes from 100% of precincts25,103

25,103 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 21
CandidatePct.Votes
Kelly Convirs-Fowler*DEMCheck		54.6%12,399
Shannon KaneGOP		45.410,298
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,697
* Incumbent

22,697 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 22
CandidatePct.Votes
Kathy Byron*GOPCheck		69.1%14,397
Jennifer WoofterDEM		30.96,452
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,849
* Incumbent

20,849 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 23
CandidatePct.Votes
Wendell WalkerGOPCheck		64.0%13,529
David ZillesDEM		36.07,606
Total votes from 100% of precincts21,135

21,135 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 24
CandidatePct.Votes
Ronnie Campbell*GOPCheck		66.1%15,648
Christian WorthDEM		32.77,735
Eli FishpawIND		1.2292
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,675
* Incumbent

23,675 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 25
CandidatePct.Votes
Chris RunionGOPCheck		58.2%16,742
Jennifer KitchenDEM		40.011,512
Janice AllenIND		1.8514
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,768

28,768 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 26
CandidatePct.Votes
Tony Wilt*GOPCheck		54.1%10,270
Brent FinneganDEM		45.98,722
Total votes from 100% of precincts18,992
* Incumbent

18,992 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 27
CandidatePct.Votes
Roxann Robinson*GOP		50.3%15,285
Larry BarnettDEM		49.715,094
Total votes from 88% of precincts30,379
* Incumbent

So far 30,379 votes have been counted in this race.Turnout has exceeded our estimates.

District 28
CandidatePct.Votes
Josh ColeDEMCheck		52.0%13,325
Paul MildeGOP		48.012,289
Total votes from 100% of precincts25,614

25,614 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 29
CandidatePct.Votes
Christopher Collins*GOPCheck		64.9%15,530
Irina KhaninDEM		35.18,391
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,921
* Incumbent

23,921 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 30
CandidatePct.Votes
Total Write-insNPD		57.9%15,116
Ann RidgewayDEM		42.110,996
Total votes from 100% of precincts26,112

26,112 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 31
CandidatePct.Votes
Elizabeth Guzman*DEMCheck		52.7%14,621
Darrell JordanGOP		47.313,114
Total votes from 100% of precincts27,735
* Incumbent

27,735 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 32
CandidatePct.Votes
David Reid*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 33
CandidatePct.Votes
Dave LaRock*GOPCheck		56.8%17,664
Mavis TaintorDEM		43.213,425
Total votes from 100% of precincts31,089
* Incumbent

31,089 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 34
CandidatePct.Votes
Kathleen Murphy*DEMCheck		58.4%17,133
Gary PanGOP		41.612,206
Total votes from 100% of precincts29,339
* Incumbent

29,339 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 35
CandidatePct.Votes
Mark Keam*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 36
CandidatePct.Votes
Kenneth Plum*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 37
CandidatePct.Votes
David Bulova*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 38
CandidatePct.Votes
Kaye Kory*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 39
CandidatePct.Votes
Vivian Watts*DEMCheck		68.4%15,553
Nick BellGOP		31.67,176
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,729
* Incumbent

22,729 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 40
CandidatePct.Votes
Dan HelmerDEMCheck		53.2%15,322
Tim Hugo*GOP		46.813,486
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,808
* Incumbent

28,808 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 41
CandidatePct.Votes
Eileen Filler-Corn*DEMCheck		72.9%17,302
John WolfeIND		19.24,568
Rachel MaceLIB		7.91,875
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,745
* Incumbent

23,745 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 42
CandidatePct.Votes
Kathy Tran*DEMCheck		59.7%16,167
Steve AdragnaGOP		40.310,903
Total votes from 95% of precincts27,070
* Incumbent

So far 27,070 votes have been counted in this race.Turnout has exceeded our estimates.

District 43
CandidatePct.Votes
Mark Sickles*DEMCheck		79.1%15,932
Gail ParkerIND		20.94,216
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,148
* Incumbent

20,148 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 44
CandidatePct.Votes
Paul Krizek*DEMCheck		70.8%13,713
Richard HaydenGOP		29.25,667
Total votes from 100% of precincts19,380
* Incumbent

19,380 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 45
CandidatePct.Votes
Mark Levine*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 46
CandidatePct.Votes
Charniele Herring*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 47
CandidatePct.Votes
Patrick Hope*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 48
CandidatePct.Votes
Richard Sullivan*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 49
CandidatePct.Votes
Alfonso Lopez*DEMCheck		84.0%13,586
Terry ModglinIND		16.02,586
Total votes from 100% of precincts16,172
* Incumbent

16,172 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 50
CandidatePct.Votes
Lee Carter*DEMCheck		53.4%10,693
Ian LovejoyGOP		46.69,333
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,026
* Incumbent

20,026 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 51
CandidatePct.Votes
Hala Ayala*DEMCheck		54.6%15,499
Richard AndersonGOP		45.412,872
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,371
* Incumbent

28,371 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 52
CandidatePct.Votes
Luke Torian*DEMCheck		73.6%10,903
Maria MartinGOP		26.43,907
Total votes from 100% of precincts14,810
* Incumbent

14,810 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 53
CandidatePct.Votes
Marcus Simon*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 54
CandidatePct.Votes
Robert Orrock*GOPCheck		58.0%13,623
Neri Canahui-OrtizDEM		42.09,850
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,473
* Incumbent

23,473 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 55
CandidatePct.Votes
H.F. Fowler*GOPCheck		60.1%17,350
Morgan GoodmanDEM		39.911,497
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,847
* Incumbent

28,847 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 56
CandidatePct.Votes
John McGuire*GOPCheck		61.0%20,243
Juanita MatkinsDEM		39.012,916
Total votes from 100% of precincts33,159
* Incumbent

33,159 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 57
CandidatePct.Votes
Sally HudsonCheck		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
District 58
CandidatePct.Votes
Robert Bell*GOPCheck		62.5%18,213
Elizabeth AlcornDEM		37.510,920
Total votes from 100% of precincts29,133
* Incumbent

29,133 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 59
CandidatePct.Votes
Matt Fariss*GOPCheck		63.3%16,444
Tim HickeyDEM		36.79,544
Total votes from 100% of precincts25,988
* Incumbent

25,988 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 60
CandidatePct.Votes
James Edmunds*GOPCheck		66.3%14,461
Janie ZimmermanDEM		33.77,340
Total votes from 100% of precincts21,801
* Incumbent

21,801 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 61
CandidatePct.Votes
Thomas Wright*GOPCheck		66.9%15,472
Trudy BerryDEM		33.17,667
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,139
* Incumbent

23,139 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 62
CandidatePct.Votes
Carrie CoynerGOPCheck		55.2%13,174
Lindsey DoughertyDEM		44.810,701
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,875

23,875 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 63
CandidatePct.Votes
Lashrecse Aird*DEMCheck		55.7%12,789
Larry HaakeIND		44.310,190
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,979
* Incumbent

22,979 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 64
CandidatePct.Votes
Emily Brewer*GOPCheck		60.2%16,179
Michele JoyceDEM		39.810,700
Total votes from 100% of precincts26,879
* Incumbent

26,879 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 65
CandidatePct.Votes
Lee Ware*GOPCheck		63.3%24,710
Michael AsipDEM		36.714,326
Total votes from 100% of precincts39,036
* Incumbent

39,036 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 66
CandidatePct.Votes
Kirk Cox*GOPCheck		51.7%14,443
Sheila Bynum-ColemanDEM		47.113,139
Linnard HarrisIND		1.2342
Total votes from 100% of precincts27,924
* Incumbent

27,924 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 67
CandidatePct.Votes
Karrie Delaney*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 68
CandidatePct.Votes
Dawn Adams*DEMCheck		55.3%20,404
Garrison CowardGOP		44.716,512
Total votes from 100% of precincts36,916
* Incumbent

36,916 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 69
CandidatePct.Votes
Betsy Carr*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 70
CandidatePct.Votes
Delores McQuinn*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 71
CandidatePct.Votes
Jeffrey Bourne*DEMCheck		88.5%20,308
Pete WellsLIB		11.52,636
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,944
* Incumbent

22,944 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 72
CandidatePct.Votes
Schuyler VanValkenburg*DEMCheck		53.3%16,352
GayDonna VandergriffGOP		46.714,304
Total votes from 100% of precincts30,656
* Incumbent

30,656 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 73
CandidatePct.Votes
Rodney WillettDEMCheck		52.4%14,961
Mary Margaret KastelbergGOP		47.613,584
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,545

28,545 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 74
CandidatePct.Votes
Lamont Bagby*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 75
CandidatePct.Votes
Roslyn Tyler*DEMCheck		51.0%12,338
Otto WachsmannGOP		49.011,833
Total votes from 100% of precincts24,171
* Incumbent

24,171 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 76
CandidatePct.Votes
Clinton JenkinsDEMCheck		56.4%14,929
Chris Jones*GOP		43.611,540
Total votes from 100% of precincts26,469
* Incumbent

26,469 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 77
CandidatePct.Votes
C. E. Hayes*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 78
CandidatePct.Votes
James Leftwich*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 79
CandidatePct.Votes
Steve Heretick*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 80
CandidatePct.Votes
Don ScottDEMCheck		66.1%12,020
James EvansGOP		23.34,234
Ryan BentonIND		10.61,927
Total votes from 100% of precincts18,181

18,181 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 81
CandidatePct.Votes
Barry Knight*GOPCheck		52.2%11,573
Lenard MyersDEM		47.810,594
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,167
* Incumbent

22,167 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 82
CandidatePct.Votes
Jason Miyares*GOPCheck		59.3%15,765
Gayle JohnsonDEM		40.710,835
Total votes from 100% of precincts26,600
* Incumbent

26,600 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 83
CandidatePct.Votes
Nancy GuyDEM		50.0%10,958
Christopher Stolle*GOP		50.010,940
Total votes from 100% of precincts21,898
* Incumbent

21,898 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 84
CandidatePct.Votes
Glenn Davis*GOPCheck		51.2%10,577
Karen MallardDEM		48.810,078
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,655
* Incumbent

20,655 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 85
CandidatePct.Votes
Alex AskewDEMCheck		51.7%11,968
N. D. HolcombGOP		48.311,168
Total votes from 100% of precincts23,136

23,136 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 86
CandidatePct.Votes
Ibraheem Samirah*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 87
CandidatePct.Votes
Suhas SubramanyamDEMCheck		62.0%17,670
William DrennanGOP		38.010,813
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,483

28,483 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 88
CandidatePct.Votes
Mark Cole*GOPCheck		55.8%15,142
Jessica FosterDEM		44.212,008
Total votes from 100% of precincts27,150
* Incumbent

27,150 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 89
CandidatePct.Votes
Jerrauld Jones*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 90
CandidatePct.Votes
Joseph Lindsey*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 91
CandidatePct.Votes
Martha MuglerDEMCheck		54.9%11,526
Colleen HolcombGOP		45.19,481
Total votes from 100% of precincts21,007

21,007 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 92
CandidatePct.Votes
Jeion Ward*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 93
CandidatePct.Votes
Michael Mullin*DEMCheck		55.7%14,322
Heather CordascoGOP		44.311,391
Total votes from 100% of precincts25,713
* Incumbent

25,713 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 94
CandidatePct.Votes
Shelly SimondsDEMCheck		57.8%11,556
David Yancey*GOP		40.38,069
Michael BartleyLIB		1.9376
Total votes from 100% of precincts20,001
* Incumbent

20,001 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 95
CandidatePct.Votes
Marcia Price*Check		0%0
Uncontested
No votes reported0
* Incumbent
District 96
CandidatePct.Votes
Amanda BattenGOPCheck		52.6%17,122
Mark DowneyDEM		46.415,104
James JobeLIB		1.1356
Total votes from 100% of precincts32,582

32,582 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 97
CandidatePct.Votes
Scott WyattGOPCheck		55.7%18,273
Kevin WashingtonDEM		26.68,713
Write InsNPD		17.75,793
Total votes from 100% of precincts32,779

32,779 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 98
CandidatePct.Votes
Keith Hodges*GOPCheck		69.0%18,695
Elizabeth WebsterDEM		31.08,393
Total votes from 100% of precincts27,088
* Incumbent

27,088 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 99
CandidatePct.Votes
Margaret Ransone*GOPCheck		62.4%17,798
Francis EdwardsDEM		37.610,709
Total votes from 100% of precincts28,507
* Incumbent

28,507 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 100
CandidatePct.Votes
Robert Bloxom*GOPCheck		51.9%11,866
Philip HernandezDEM		48.110,979
Total votes from 100% of precincts22,845
* Incumbent

22,845 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

Correction (Nov. 7): A previous version of this page listed the total votes cast for Democratic and Republican candidates, but mislabeled the figures as statewide totals. Only votes cast in contested races were included.

By Jason Bernert, Lenny Bronner, Madison Dong, Simon Glenn-Gregg, Jason Holt, Isabelle Lavandero, Erik Reyna, Ashlyn Still and Susan Tyler

Additional contributions from Laura Vozzella and Gregory S. Schneider

Sources: AP, Virginia Department of Elections

For the Virginia general election in 2019, The Washington Post has developed a model that estimates turnout for each state House and state Senate district before voting begins, then updates these estimates throughout the night as precincts report.

Previously, the best way for us to estimate votes remaining was to use the fraction of precincts that have reported their results, usually expressed like this: “50 out of 1,750 precincts reporting.” However, depending on early voting and the distribution of votes between precincts, this “precincts reporting” metric can be a misleading estimate of how many votes are actually left to be counted.

The foundation of our model is that past turnout predicts future turnout. We collected data from previous elections that most closely resembled this one and used these to form our base estimates for turnout in each state House and state Senate district. But a novel feature of our model is that it should respond to precincts that have already reported and update its estimates based on this new information. This is intuitive, as the same factors that might drive increased turnout in one precinct would likely drive increased turnout in other precincts within the same district. These kinds of factors might also suggest increased turnout across the entire election.

If you’re interested in additional details, we’ve published a full writeup on our engineering blog, and we’re also planning on making much of our model code public — so stay tuned!