Virginia election House of Delegates results

Last Updated: Nov 6, 2019 at 1:51 p.m. EST

On Nov. 5, Virginia is holding a general election for the House of Delegates. Republicans won the House in 2017 by the thinnest of margins — when a state elections official pulled Republican candidate David E. Yancey’s name from a bowl, breaking a tie with Democratic candidate Shelly Simonds.

Democrats are capitalizing on a rush of excitement to nominate candidates in 92 of 100 state House districts — a record for modern elections — while Republicans have candidates in only 72 of them. While Democrats are energized by Trump in this bellwether for 2020, Virginia Republicans are counting on an influx of outside spending to help them hold back the tide.

The race for control

Democrat leading/called

Republican leading/called

Other candidates leading/called*

< 10% reporting

House of Delegates

54 Democrats

43 Republicans

EVEN

^*Third party or total write-in

Turnout

So far 823,694 Democratic votes, 860,993 Republican votes and 55,187 votes for other candidates have been counted statewide for all contested House of Delegates races. We estimate this is almost all of expected turnout.

Alexandria

Roanoke

Virginia Beach

Charlottesville

Richmond

LEAD/WON

Democrat

Republican

Tie

All results

39Likely Democrat

11Leaning Democrat

10Tossups

4Leaning Republican

36Likely Republican

District	Dem.	Rep.	Other
2	60.9%	-	-
11	Unc.
13	56.9%	-	-
32	Unc.
34	58.4%	-	-
35	Unc.
36	Unc.
37	Unc.
38	Unc.
39	68.4%	-	-
41	72.9%	-	-
42	59.7%	-	-
43	79.1%	-	-
44	70.8%	-	-
45	Unc.
46	Unc.
47	Unc.
48	Unc.
49	84.0%	-	-
50	53.4%	-	-
51	54.6%	-	-
52	73.6%	-	-
53	Unc.
57	Unc.
63	55.7%	-	-
67	Unc.
69	Unc.
70	Unc.
71	88.5%	-	-
74	Unc.
77	Unc.
79	Unc.
80	66.1%	-	-
86	Unc.
87	62.0%	-	-
89	Unc.
90	Unc.
92	Unc.
95	Unc.

District	Dem.	Rep.	Other
10	52.4%	-	-
12	53.6%	-	-
21	54.6%	-	-
31	52.7%	-	-
40	53.2%	-	-
68	55.3%	-	-
72	53.3%	-	-
73	52.4%	-	-
75	51.0%	-	-
93	55.7%	-	-
94	57.8%	-	-

District	Dem.	Rep.	Other
26	-	54.1%	-
27	-	50.3%	-
28	52.0%	-	-
62	-	55.2%	-
66	-	51.7%	-
76	56.4%	-	-
83	50.0%	-	-
85	51.7%	-	-
91	54.9%	-	-
100	-	51.9%	-

District	Dem.	Rep.	Other
33	-	56.8%	-
60	-	66.3%	-
81	-	52.2%	-
84	-	51.2%	-

District	Dem.	Rep.	Other
1		Unc.
3		Unc.
4	-	63.0%	-
5		Unc.
6	-	75.3%	-
7	-	66.8%	-
8	-	66.5%	-
9		Unc.
14	-	61.3%	-
15	-	74.5%	-
16	-	74.9%	-
17		Unc.
18	-	60.8%	-
19		Unc.
20	-	58.6%	-
22	-	69.1%	-
23	-	64.0%	-
24	-	66.1%	-
25	-	58.2%	-
29	-	64.9%	-
30	-	-	57.9%
54	-	58.0%	-
55	-	60.1%	-
56	-	61.0%	-
58	-	62.5%	-
59	-	63.3%	-
61	-	66.9%	-
64	-	60.2%	-
65	-	63.3%	-
78		Unc.
82	-	59.3%	-
88	-	55.8%	-
96	-	52.6%	-
97	-	55.7%	-
98	-	69.0%	-
99	-	62.4%	-

All races

District 1

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Terry KilgoreKilgore*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 2

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Jennifer FoyFoy*DEM	0	0	%
Heather MitchellMitchellGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

19,315 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 3

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Will MorefieldMorefield*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 4

Candidate	Pct.
William WamplerWamplerGOP	0	%
Starla KiserKiserDEM	0
No votes reported

22,840 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 5

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Israel O'QuinnO'Quinn*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 6

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Jeffrey CampbellCampbell*GOP	0	0	%
James BarkerBarkerDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

22,426 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 7

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Larry RushRush*GOP	0	0	%
Rhonda SeltzSeltzDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

20,708 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 8

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Joseph McNamaraMcNamara*GOP	0	0	%
Darlene LewisLewisDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

22,859 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 9

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Charles PoindexterPoindexter*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 10

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Wendy GooditisGooditis*DEM	0	0	%
Randall MinchewMinchewGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

30,600 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 11

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Sam RasoulRasoul*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 12

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Chris HurstHurst*DEM	0	0	%
Forrest HiteHiteGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

20,775 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 13

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Danica RoemRoem*DEM	0	0	%
Kelly McGinnMcGinnGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

18,878 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 14

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Danny MarshallMarshall*GOP	0	0	%
Eric StampsStampsDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

19,786 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 15

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Todd GilbertGilbert*GOP	0	0	%
Beverly HarrisonHarrisonDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

25,390 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 16

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Les AdamsAdams*GOP	0	0	%
Dustin EvansEvansLIB	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

17,544 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 17

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Christopher HeadHead*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 18

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Michael WebertWebert*GOP	0	0	%
Laura GalanteGalanteDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

27,360 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 19

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Terry AustinAustin*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 20

Candidate	Pct.
Jennifer LewisLewisDEM	0	%
John AvoliAvoliGOP	0
No votes reported

25,103 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 21

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Kelly Convirs-FowlerConvirs-Fowler*DEM	0	0	%
Shannon KaneKaneGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

22,697 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 22

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Kathy ByronByron*GOP	0	0	%
Jennifer WoofterWoofterDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

20,849 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 23

Candidate	Pct.
Wendell WalkerWalkerGOP	0	%
David ZillesZillesDEM	0
No votes reported

21,135 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 24

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Ronnie CampbellCampbell*GOP	0	0	%
Christian WorthWorthDEM	0	0
Eli FishpawFishpawIND	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

23,675 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 25

Candidate	Pct.
Chris RunionRunionGOP	0	%
Jennifer KitchenKitchenDEM	0
Janice AllenAllenIND	0
No votes reported

28,768 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 26

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Tony WiltWilt*GOP	0	0	%
Brent FinneganFinneganDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

18,992 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 27

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Roxann RobinsonRobinson*GOP	0	0	%
Larry BarnettBarnettDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

So far 30,379 votes have been counted in this race.Turnout has exceeded our estimates.

District 28

Candidate	Pct.
Josh ColeColeDEM	0	%
Paul MildeMildeGOP	0
No votes reported

25,614 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 29

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Christopher CollinsCollins*GOP	0	0	%
Irina KhaninKhaninDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

23,921 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 30

Candidate	Pct.
Ann RidgewayRidgewayDEM	0	%
Total Write-insWrite-insNPD	0
No votes reported

26,112 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 31

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Elizabeth GuzmanGuzman*DEM	0	0	%
Darrell JordanJordanGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

27,735 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 32

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
David ReidReid*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 33

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Dave LaRockLaRock*GOP	0	0	%
Mavis TaintorTaintorDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

31,089 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 34

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Kathleen MurphyMurphy*DEM	0	0	%
Gary PanPanGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

29,339 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 35

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Mark KeamKeam*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 36

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Kenneth PlumPlum*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 37

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
David BulovaBulova*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 38

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Kaye KoryKory*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 39

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Vivian WattsWatts*DEM	0	0	%
Nick BellBellGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

22,729 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 40

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Tim HugoHugo*GOP	0	0	%
Dan HelmerHelmerDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

28,808 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 41

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Eileen Filler-CornFiller-Corn*DEM	0	0	%
Rachel MaceMaceLIB	0	0
John WolfeWolfeIND	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

23,745 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 42

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Kathy TranTran*DEM	0	0	%
Steve AdragnaAdragnaGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

So far 27,070 votes have been counted in this race.Turnout has exceeded our estimates.

District 43

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Mark SicklesSickles*DEM	0	0	%
Gail ParkerParkerIND	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

20,148 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 44

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Paul KrizekKrizek*DEM	0	0	%
Richard HaydenHaydenGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

19,380 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 45

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Mark LevineLevine*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 46

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Charniele HerringHerring*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 47

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Patrick HopeHope*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 48

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Richard SullivanSullivan*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 49

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Alfonso LopezLopez*DEM	0	0	%
Terry ModglinModglinIND	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

16,172 votes were counted in this race, which is around what was we estimated.

District 50

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Lee CarterCarter*DEM	0	0	%
Ian LovejoyLovejoyGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

20,026 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 51

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Hala AyalaAyala*DEM	0	0	%
Richard AndersonAndersonGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

28,371 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 52

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Luke TorianTorian*DEM	0	0	%
Maria MartinMartinGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

14,810 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 53

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Marcus SimonSimon*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 54

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Robert OrrockOrrock*GOP	0	0	%
Neri Canahui-OrtizCanahui-OrtizDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

23,473 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 55

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
H.F. FowlerFowler*GOP	0	0	%
Morgan GoodmanGoodmanDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

28,847 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 56

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
John McGuireMcGuire*GOP	0	0	%
Juanita MatkinsMatkinsDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

33,159 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 57

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Sally HudsonHudson	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0

District 58

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Robert BellBell*GOP	0	0	%
Elizabeth AlcornAlcornDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

29,133 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 59

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Matt FarissFariss*GOP	0	0	%
Tim HickeyHickeyDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

25,988 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 60

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
James EdmundsEdmunds*GOP	0	0	%
Janie ZimmermanZimmermanDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

21,801 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 61

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Thomas WrightWright*GOP	0	0	%
Trudy BerryBerryDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

23,139 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 62

Candidate	Pct.
Lindsey DoughertyDoughertyDEM	0	%
Carrie CoynerCoynerGOP	0
No votes reported

23,875 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 63

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Lashrecse AirdAird*DEM	0	0	%
Larry HaakeHaakeIND	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

22,979 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 64

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Emily BrewerBrewer*GOP	0	0	%
Michele JoyceJoyceDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

26,879 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 65

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Lee WareWare*GOP	0	0	%
Michael AsipAsipDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

39,036 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 66

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Kirk CoxCox*GOP	0	0	%
Sheila Bynum-ColemanBynum-ColemanDEM	0	0
Linnard HarrisHarrisIND	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

27,924 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 67

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Karrie DelaneyDelaney*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 68

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Dawn AdamsAdams*DEM	0	0	%
Garrison CowardCowardGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

36,916 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 69

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Betsy CarrCarr*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 70

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Delores McQuinnMcQuinn*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 71

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Jeffrey BourneBourne*DEM	0	0	%
Pete WellsWellsLIB	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

22,944 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 72

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Schuyler VanValkenburgVanValkenburg*DEM	0	0	%
GayDonna VandergriffVandergriffGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

30,656 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 73

Candidate	Pct.
Rodney WillettWillettDEM	0	%
Mary Margaret KastelbergKastelbergGOP	0
No votes reported

28,545 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 74

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Lamont BagbyBagby*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 75

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Roslyn TylerTyler*DEM	0	0	%
Otto WachsmannWachsmannGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

24,171 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 76

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Chris JonesJones*GOP	0	0	%
Clinton JenkinsJenkinsDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

26,469 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 77

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
C. E. HayesHayes*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 78

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
James LeftwichLeftwich*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 79

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Steve HeretickHeretick*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 80

Candidate	Pct.
Don ScottScottDEM	0	%
James EvansEvansGOP	0
Ryan BentonBentonIND	0
No votes reported

18,181 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 81

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Barry KnightKnight*GOP	0	0	%
Lenard MyersMyersDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

22,167 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 82

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Jason MiyaresMiyares*GOP	0	0	%
Gayle JohnsonJohnsonDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

26,600 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 83

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Christopher StolleStolle*GOP	0	0	%
Nancy GuyGuyDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

21,898 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 84

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Glenn DavisDavis*GOP	0	0	%
Karen MallardMallardDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

20,655 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 85

Candidate	Pct.
N. D. HolcombHolcombGOP	0	%
Alex AskewAskewDEM	0
No votes reported

23,136 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 86

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Ibraheem SamirahSamirah*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 87

Candidate	Pct.
William DrennanDrennanGOP	0	%
Suhas SubramanyamSubramanyamDEM	0
No votes reported

28,483 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 88

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Mark ColeCole*GOP	0	0	%
Jessica FosterFosterDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

27,150 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 89

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Jerrauld JonesJones*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 90

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Joseph LindseyLindsey*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 91

Candidate	Pct.
Colleen HolcombHolcombGOP	0	%
Martha MuglerMuglerDEM	0
No votes reported

21,007 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 92

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Jeion WardWard*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 93

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Michael MullinMullin*DEM	0	0	%
Heather CordascoCordascoGOP	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

25,713 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 94

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
David YanceyYancey*GOP	0	0	%
Shelly SimondsSimondsDEM	0	0
Michael BartleyBartleyLIB	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

20,001 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 95

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Marcia PricePrice*	0	0	%
Uncontested
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

District 96

Candidate	Pct.
Mark DowneyDowneyDEM	0	%
Amanda BattenBattenGOP	0
James JobeJobeLIB	0
No votes reported

32,582 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 97

Candidate	Pct.
Kevin WashingtonWashingtonDEM	0	%
Scott WyattWyattGOP	0
Write InsInsNPD	0
No votes reported

32,779 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 98

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Keith HodgesHodges*GOP	0	0	%
Elizabeth WebsterWebsterDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

27,088 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 99

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Margaret RansoneRansone*GOP	0	0	%
Francis EdwardsEdwardsDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

28,507 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

District 100

Candidate	Votes	Pct.
Robert BloxomBloxom*GOP	0	0	%
Philip HernandezHernandezDEM	0	0
No votes reported	0
* Incumbent

22,845 votes were counted in this race, which is more than we estimated.

By Jason Bernert, Lenny Bronner, Madison Dong, Simon Glenn-Gregg, Jason Holt, Isabelle Lavandero, Erik Reyna, Ashlyn Still and Susan Tyler

Additional contributions from Laura Vozzella and Gregory S. Schneider

Sources: AP, Virginia Department of Elections

For the Virginia general election in 2019, The Washington Post has developed a model that estimates turnout for each state House and state Senate district before voting begins, then updates these estimates throughout the night as precincts report.

Previously, the best way for us to estimate votes remaining was to use the fraction of precincts that have reported their results, usually expressed like this: “50 out of 1,750 precincts reporting.” However, depending on early voting and the distribution of votes between precincts, this “precincts reporting” metric can be a misleading estimate of how many votes are actually left to be counted.

The foundation of our model is that past turnout predicts future turnout. We collected data from previous elections that most closely resembled this one and used these to form our base estimates for turnout in each state House and state Senate district. But a novel feature of our model is that it should respond to precincts that have already reported and update its estimates based on this new information. This is intuitive, as the same factors that might drive increased turnout in one precinct would likely drive increased turnout in other precincts within the same district. These kinds of factors might also suggest increased turnout across the entire election.

If you’re interested in additional details, we’ve published a full writeup on our engineering blog, and we’re also planning on making much of our model code public — so stay tuned!