One of the heartlands of the modern Republican Party, Arizona has remained stubbornly out of reach for Democratic presidential candidates this century, though former vice president Joe Biden is locked in a tight race to secure the state’s 11 electoral college votes this year.
One in 4 voters in the state are non-White, an electorate that’s heavily Democratic here, and a slim majority of voters were college graduates, according to the 2016 exit polls. Every other state with that profile, and every other state with rapid urban growth, has been moving briskly toward Democrats since 2016.
By nominating Arizona’s senior senator for president in 2008, and by picking the first Mormon nominee in 2012, Republicans ran stronger here than in other states with similar Latino populations and similar urban-rural splits. Arizona went for Donald Trump by a margin of about 3.5 points in 2016.
The Post is publishing preliminary results from national and state exit polls that allow readers to explore demographic trends in the 2020 vote. These surveys randomly sample voters in three ways: in-person, as they exited voting places on or before Election Day, and by telephone, through a survey of more than 25,000 early voters, to help account for the huge increase of votes cast early.
Containing the coronavirus now, even if it hurts the economy49% of voters
13%
86%
Rebuilding the economy now, even if it hurts efforts to contain the coronavirus45%
87%
11%
Senate exit poll
In the Arizona U.S. Senate race, the incumbent, Martha McSally, a Republican, was defeated by Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and gun-control activist. McSally has represented Arizona in the Senate since 2019, when she was appointed by the state's governor to fill a vacant seat.
Who won each group in Arizona
Groups that candidates won by six or more percentage points
Containing the coronavirus now, even if it hurts the economy49% of voters
86%
14%
Rebuilding the economy now, even if it hurts efforts to contain the coronavirus45%
14%
86%
Methodology
Preliminary national and state exit poll results from interviews of randomly selected voters as they exited voting places across the country on Nov. 3, as well as from voters exiting early voting locations. Early voters were also reached through a telephone survey. The polls were conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, The Washington Post and other media organizations. Results are weighted to match vote tallies by region and to correct for differential participation by subgroup.
Joe Biden
Donald Trump