Exit poll results and analysis from Arizona

Who won each group in Arizona

Groups that candidates won by six or more percentage points

Joe Biden
Donald Trump
Jump to polls for:President|Senate

One of the heartlands of the modern Republican Party, Arizona has remained stubbornly out of reach for Democratic presidential candidates this century, though former vice president Joe Biden is locked in a tight race to secure the state’s 11 electoral college votes this year.

One in 4 voters in the state are non-White, an electorate that’s heavily Democratic here, and a slim majority of voters were college graduates, according to the 2016 exit polls. Every other state with that profile, and every other state with rapid urban growth, has been moving briskly toward Democrats since 2016.

By nominating Arizona’s senior senator for president in 2008, and by picking the first Mormon nominee in 2012, Republicans ran stronger here than in other states with similar Latino populations and similar urban-rural splits. Arizona went for Donald Trump by a margin of about 3.5 points in 2016.

The Post is publishing preliminary results from national and state exit polls that allow readers to explore demographic trends in the 2020 vote. These surveys randomly sample voters in three ways: in-person, as they exited voting places on or before Election Day, and by telephone, through a survey of more than 25,000 early voters, to help account for the huge increase of votes cast early.

Below, see how various groups voted in Arizona’s elections for president and U.S. Senate.

Full exit poll results

Candidates who won a demographic group by six or more percentage points are highlighted. Follow live election results from Arizona here.

Sex
Trump
Biden
Men48% of voters
trump
50%
biden
48%
Women52%
trump
48%
biden
51%
Age
Trump
Biden
18-2916% of voters
trump
32%
biden
63%
30-4420%
trump
51%
biden
47%
45-6432%
trump
55%
biden
44%
65+31%
trump
50%
biden
49%
Race
Trump
Biden
White74% of voters
trump
52%
biden
46%
Black2%
Not enough respondents to break down details
Hispanic/Latino19%
trump
37%
biden
61%
Asian2%
Not enough respondents to break down details
Other4%
Not enough respondents to break down details
NET Non-White26%
trump
39%
biden
59%
Sex by race
Trump
Biden
White men34% of voters
trump
52%
biden
46%
White women40%
trump
52%
biden
46%
Black men1%
Not enough respondents to break down details
Black women1%
Not enough respondents to break down details
Hispanic/Latino men9%
trump
40%
biden
58%
Hispanic/Latino women9%
trump
34%
biden
65%
All other voters5%
Not enough respondents to break down details
Party self-identification
Trump
Biden
Democrats26% of voters
trump
3%
biden
96%
Republicans35%
trump
90%
biden
9%
Independents/Others39%
trump
44%
biden
53%
Ideology
Trump
Biden
Liberal22% of voters
trump
6%
biden
93%
Moderate36%
trump
32%
biden
67%
Conservative42%
trump
87%
biden
11%
Education
Trump
Biden
College graduates41% of voters
trump
46%
biden
53%
Some college or less59%
trump
51%
biden
47%
Education by race
Trump
Biden
White college graduates33% of voters
trump
46%
biden
53%
White, some college or less41%
trump
57%
biden
41%
Non-White college graduates8%
trump
41%
biden
58%
Non-White, some college or less18%
trump
38%
biden
60%
Education by race by sex
Trump
Biden
White women, college graduates17% of voters
trump
44%
biden
56%
White women, some college or less24%
trump
59%
biden
40%
White men, college graduates16%
trump
49%
biden
50%
White men, some college or less18%
trump
54%
biden
43%
When did you decide?
Trump
Biden
Decided in the last week-1% of voters
Not enough respondents to break down details
Decided before last week97%
trump
48%
biden
50%
Most important issue in your vote for president
Trump
Biden
The coronavirus pandemic21% of voters
trump
4%
biden
95%
The economy34%
trump
91%
biden
8%
Crime and safety12%
trump
87%
biden
11%
Health-care policy14%
trump
20%
biden
78%
Racial inequality12%
trump
6%
biden
93%
Which is more important?
Trump
Biden
Containing the coronavirus now, even if it hurts the economy49% of voters
trump
13%
biden
86%
Rebuilding the economy now, even if it hurts efforts to contain the coronavirus45%
trump
87%
biden
11%

Senate exit poll

In the Arizona U.S. Senate race, the incumbent, Martha McSally, a Republican, was defeated by Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut and gun-control activist. McSally has represented Arizona in the Senate since 2019, when she was appointed by the state's governor to fill a vacant seat.

Who won each group in Arizona

Groups that candidates won by six or more percentage points

Mark Kelly
Martha McSally

Full exit poll results

Candidates who won a demographic group by six or more percentage points are highlighted. Follow live election results from Arizona here.

Sex
Kelly
McSally
Men48% of voters
50%
50%
Women52%
52%
48%
Age
Kelly
McSally
18-2916% of voters
67%
33%
30-4420%
49%
51%
45-6432%
46%
54%
65+32%
50%
50%
Race
Kelly
McSally
White74% of voters
47%
53%
Black2%
Not enough respondents to break down details
Hispanic/Latino19%
65%
35%
Asian2%
Not enough respondents to break down details
Other4%
Not enough respondents to break down details
NET Non-White26%
64%
36%
Sex by race
Kelly
McSally
White men34% of voters
47%
53%
White women40%
47%
53%
Black men1%
Not enough respondents to break down details
Black women1%
Not enough respondents to break down details
Hispanic/Latino men9%
62%
38%
Hispanic/Latino women9%
69%
31%
All other voters5%
Not enough respondents to break down details
Party self-identification
Kelly
McSally
Democrats26% of voters
97%
3%
Republicans35%
11%
89%
Independents/Others39%
55%
45%
Ideology
Kelly
McSally
Liberal22% of voters
93%
7%
Moderate36%
69%
31%
Conservative42%
13%
87%
Education
Kelly
McSally
College graduates41% of voters
55%
45%
Some college or less59%
49%
51%
Education by race
Kelly
McSally
White college graduates33% of voters
54%
46%
White, some college or less42%
42%
58%
Non-White college graduates8%
62%
38%
Non-White, some college or less17%
65%
35%
Education by race by sex
Kelly
McSally
White women, college graduates17% of voters
57%
43%
White women, some college or less24%
41%
59%
White men, college graduates16%
51%
49%
White men, some college or less18%
44%
56%
Most important issue in your vote for president
Kelly
McSally
The coronavirus pandemic21% of voters
95%
5%
The economy34%
12%
88%
Crime and safety12%
12%
88%
Health-care policy14%
82%
18%
Racial inequality12%
90%
10%
Which is more important?
Kelly
McSally
Containing the coronavirus now, even if it hurts the economy49% of voters
86%
14%
Rebuilding the economy now, even if it hurts efforts to contain the coronavirus45%
14%
86%

Methodology

Preliminary national and state exit poll results from interviews of randomly selected voters as they exited voting places across the country on Nov. 3, as well as from voters exiting early voting locations. Early voters were also reached through a telephone survey. The polls were conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, The Washington Post and other media organizations. Results are weighted to match vote tallies by region and to correct for differential participation by subgroup.

Graphics by Brittany Mayes, Leslie Shapiro and Chris Alcantara. Text by David Weigel, Scott Clement, Emily Guskin, Kevin Uhrmacher, Ann Gerhart, Claudia Deane, Alauna Safarpour and Jocelyn Kiley.