Virginia’s uneven recovery mirrors its growing political divide

The averages may say that Virginia’s job growth almost tracks the nation’s recovery. But those overall numbers are driven by large urban counties, especially in the northern suburbs of the District.

Across Virginia, as voters decide the nation’s most-watched election this year, most areas had fewer jobs in 2016 than in 2007.

This uneven economy could impact the governor’s race between Republican Ed Gillespie and Democrat Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam.

Of the 133 counties and cities in Virginia, 85 have lost jobs since 2007. Job growth was mainly concentrated in booming urban areas, like Northern Virginia and the central part of the state around Richmond. Meanwhile, to the south and west, communities are still dealing with the decline of their four key industries — coal mining, tobacco, textiles and furniture-making.

[Virginia’s unemployment rate is only 3.7%. So why is the economy a big issue in the governor’s race?]

Those differences matter because the divide between job winners and losers mirrors Virginia's growing political divide. Virginia voters rank the economy as their most important election issue, along with health care. Virginia’s last gubernatorial race in 2013 was close, decided by only 2.5 percent of the more than 2.2 million votes cast. And so is the current race, according to recent polling. So a shift in the votes of any region of the state could be decisive.

Here’s how each region has fared in the race for jobs — and how the area voted in 2016.

Northern Virginia

Three Northern Virginia counties — Loudoun, Prince William and Arlington — added more than 70,000 jobs combined since 2007. That’s 60 percent of all the new jobs in the state. The vast majority of potential voters in the D.C. suburbs and outlying areas rate their area economy good or excellent.

Northern Virginia is capable of six-digit vote margins that swing an election for Democrats. Without the region, Hillary Clinton would have lost Virginia by 171,000 votes in 2016, and four years ago Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) would have lost by 71,000.

Shenandoah, Southwest and Southside

Almost half of registered voters in Virginia's south and west rate the economy in their part of the state "Not so good" or "Poor," by far the state's worst regional rating.

With its dependence on mining, manufacturing and agriculture, these areas resemble rural and small town areas across the Midwest that awarded Donald Trump some of his heartiest wins. Although Trump lost the state overall, his support in these areas demonstrated their potential political power in an era of increasing polarization.

The mostly rural areas can make up for a lack of large urban centers with sheer numbers — 71 cities and counties — and lopsided results. Trump won this swath of the state by 291,000 votes, almost 96,000 more than Republican Mitt Romney in 2012. In Virginia and the nation, people will be watching on Tuesday to see if that kind of surge happens again where the local economy hasn't come all the way back from the great recession.

Gillespie profile: Can a career tactician navigate Trump and a GOP civil war and win Virginia?

Northam profile: The lure of the steady physician: Is Northam’s résumé enough in the age of Trump?