Four GOP senators have indicated opposition to the bill.
Two others have expressed concerns with the bill.
If three vote against it, the bill would fail.

Collins
Maine

Cruz
Tex.

McCain
Ariz.

Paul
Ky.

Lee
Utah

Murkowski
Alaska
Senate Republicans are hurtling toward a last-ditch health-care vote sometime this week, but they almost certainly don't have the votes to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) are firm “no” votes, with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) saying Sunday he's opposed to the bill "right now." Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she's strongly leaning against the bill, and other opposition is piling up.
The bill in question, the Cassidy-Graham plan, would dissolve ACA marketplaces, slash Medicaid funding and give almost all of the federal money propping up Obamacare to states to create health programs as they wish. Those grants would grow slowly and disappear within a decade. It also would allow states to waive many ACA regulations, such as those that prohibit penalizing people with preexisting conditions. In short, it would get rid of Obamacare and much of the federal government's role in health care.
Time is running out, too. The vote needs to occur before Sept. 30, the last day of the 2017 fiscal year. After that, Republicans won’t be able to use budget reconciliation, a special Senate procedure that allows them to pass the bill with only 50 votes rather than the usual 60.
Who might vote no?
We’re tracking every senator’s position on the bill. Assuming no Democrats vote for it, Senate leaders can afford to lose only two Republican votes. The Senate’s previous health-care bill — the “skinny repeal” — fell one vote short of passing with three Republican no votes: Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and John McCain (R-Ariz.). Below we take a look at some groups of Republicans who might have a reason to vote no, highlighting those who have said that they are opposed and those who have said that they have concerns. The other senators either support the bill or are undecided or unknown.
Senators from states expected to lose funding under the plan

Barrasso
Wyo.

Boozman
Ark.

Burr
N.C.

Capito
W.Va.

Cassidy
La.

Collins
Maine

Cotton
Ark.

Daines
Mont.

Enzi
Wyo.

Fischer
Neb.

Flake
Ariz.

Gardner
Colo.

Heller
Nev.

Hoeven
N.D.

Kennedy
La.

McCain
Ariz.

McConnell
Ky.

Murkowski
Alaska

Paul
Ky.

Portman
Ohio

Rubio
Fla.

Sasse
Neb.

Sullivan
Alaska

Tillis
N.C.

Toomey
Pa.

Young
Ind.
Thirty-five states are expected to lose funding by 2026 under Cassidy-Graham according to an analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation. These states are generally those whose ACA implementation has been most robust and successful: Many expanded Medicaid and aggressively signed people up for the exchanges, meaning they get more money from the federal government. And the more money they’re getting now, the more they may lose under this legislation.
Least conservative

Capito
W.Va.

Cochran
Miss.

Collins
Maine

Murkowski
Alaska
Most conservative

Cruz
Tex.

Flake
Ariz.

Lee
Utah

Paul
Ky.

Sasse
Neb.
There is opposition to the bill on both sides of the Republican ideological spectrum (more on how we categorized the lawmakers here). Relatively moderate senators are cautious about taking drastic measure to roll back Obamacare. Some of the most conservative senators are concerned that this bill may not go far enough.
Up for reelection in 2018

Barrasso
Wyo.

Corker
Tenn.

Cruz
Tex.

Fischer
Neb.

Flake
Ariz.

Hatch
Utah

Heller
Nev.

Wicker
Miss.
In whatever form it takes, the Senate bill is expected to be unpopular. That makes it a riskier yes vote for senators who will be up for reelection in 2018, such as Republican Dean Heller, from the battleground state of Nevada, who is co-sponsoring the new bill.
Here’s a continuously updated list of where Republican senators stand on the current bill. Click on the lawmaker to read why he or she took that position. Did we miss something? Let us know!
Where senators stand
Oppose the bill 4
Have concerns 2
Unknown/unclear 22
Support the bill 24
These senators have said they will or are likely to vote against the current bill. Republicans can afford only two GOP no votes.
These senators are considering voting against the bill unless their concerns get addressed.
These senators have not commented on the bill or have given vague statements.
These senators have said they will or are likely to vote for the bill.
“Right now, they don’t have my vote,” Cruz said on Sept. 24. Read more »
Paul says the bill effectively keeps the ACA but gives states more power, so it doesn't constitute a "repeal." His spokesman said Monday he opposes a revised version that gives more money to moderate states. Read more »
"Sweeping reforms to our health care system and to Medicaid can’t be done well in a compressed time frame, especially when the actual bill is a moving target. Today, we find out that there is now a fourth version of the Graham-Cassidy proposal, which is as deeply flawed as the previous iterations." Collins told the Portland Press Herald. Read more »
McCain told reporters “I cannot in good conscience vote for the Graham-Cassidy proposal" Read more »
After Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said he doesn't think the bill "right now" has his or Lee's support, a Lee spokesperson told The Post: "We want some technical changes. We are working with Cassidy, but we haven’t committed to anything yet.” Read more »
Murkowski told reporters that she wants to see how much funding Alaska and other states would get before making a decision. She told reporters Wednesday she wasn't ready to support it even after meeting the bill's authors. Read more »
Capito told reporters she was waiting to see how much funding West Virginia gets. Read more »
Gardner is waiting for more information on the bill. Read more »
Moran's staff told a Roll Call reporter that he's having discussions with Kansans and senators about the bill. Read more »
Perdue says he wants to see a Congressional Budget Office report before voting. Read more »
Reporters say Portman feels positive about the bill but is still looking over it. Read more »
Rubio said he wanted to get more details before deciding. Read more »
Strange told reporters, "We’re still looking at the details on how it affects Alabama, so we haven’t taken a position on it yet." Read more »
Toomey says he's still reading the bill. Read more »
Young told reporters he's "still thinking about it." Read more »
Alexander told a local paper, "I would like to vote for Graham-Cassidy because I like block grants and it appears to be good for Tennessee." Read more »
Barrasso has been defending the bill on television. Read more »
Blunt tweeted that the bill would make care more affordable. Read more »
Burr told a local radio station he supports the bill. Read more »
Cassidy is one of the co-sponsors of the bill. Read more »
Corker told a local paper, "I am very encouraged by the fact that the Graham-Cassidy legislation repeals the core elements of Obamacare." Read more »
As Senate majority whip, Cornyn is trying to whip enough votes to pass the bill. Read more »
Cotton told reporters he plans to vote for the bill Read more »
Daines told reporters he thinks the bill would be good for Montana. Read more »
Flake announced his support on Twitter on Sept. 17. Read more »
Graham is a co-sponsor of the bill. Read more »
Grassley told a reporter "you have a responsibility to carry out what you said in the campaign." Read more »
Heller is one of the co-sponsors of the bill. Read more »
Hoeven told reporters he would support the bill since his state would get more money. Read more »
He told reporters he supported the bill because "as a general rule the states do things better than the federal government." Read more »
Johnson is one of the co-sponsors of the bill. Read more »
Kennedy told reporters he'll support the bill, but also offer some amendments to it. Read more »
As Senate majority Leader, McConnell is trying to whip enough votes to pass the bill. Read more »
Roberts said "something's better than nothing." Read more »
Rounds told reporters he supports the bill. Read more »
Scott told a local paper "To try to dictate health care policy from Washington, D.C., simply does not make sense." Read more »
Shelby told reporters "This is what a lot of us ran on — we’ve been advocating it for years. Let the states run it." Read more »
Sullivan has been meeting with Murkowski to try to earn her support. Read more »
Thune is a member of Republican leadership and commended the bill for essentailly coming back from the dead. Read more »
Oppose the bill 4
Have concerns 2
Unknown/unclear 22
Support the bill 24
Oppose the bill 4
These senators have said they will or are likely to vote against the current bill. Republicans can afford only two GOP no votes.
“Right now, they don’t have my vote,” Cruz said on Sept. 24. Read more »
Paul says the bill effectively keeps the ACA but gives states more power, so it doesn't constitute a "repeal." His spokesman said Monday he opposes a revised version that gives more money to moderate states. Read more »
"Sweeping reforms to our health care system and to Medicaid can’t be done well in a compressed time frame, especially when the actual bill is a moving target. Today, we find out that there is now a fourth version of the Graham-Cassidy proposal, which is as deeply flawed as the previous iterations." Collins told the Portland Press Herald. Read more »
McCain told reporters “I cannot in good conscience vote for the Graham-Cassidy proposal" Read more »
Have concerns 2
These senators are considering voting against the bill unless their concerns get addressed.
After Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said he doesn't think the bill "right now" has his or Lee's support, a Lee spokesperson told The Post: "We want some technical changes. We are working with Cassidy, but we haven’t committed to anything yet.” Read more »
Murkowski told reporters that she wants to see how much funding Alaska and other states would get before making a decision. She told reporters Wednesday she wasn't ready to support it even after meeting the bill's authors. Read more »
Unknown/unclear 22
These senators have not commented on the bill or have given vague statements.
Capito told reporters she was waiting to see how much funding West Virginia gets. Read more »
Gardner is waiting for more information on the bill. Read more »
Moran's staff told a Roll Call reporter that he's having discussions with Kansans and senators about the bill. Read more »
Perdue says he wants to see a Congressional Budget Office report before voting. Read more »
Reporters say Portman feels positive about the bill but is still looking over it. Read more »
Rubio said he wanted to get more details before deciding. Read more »
Strange told reporters, "We’re still looking at the details on how it affects Alabama, so we haven’t taken a position on it yet." Read more »
Toomey says he's still reading the bill. Read more »
Young told reporters he's "still thinking about it." Read more »
Support the bill 24
These senators have said they will or are likely to vote for the bill.
Alexander told a local paper, "I would like to vote for Graham-Cassidy because I like block grants and it appears to be good for Tennessee." Read more »
Barrasso has been defending the bill on television. Read more »
Blunt tweeted that the bill would make care more affordable. Read more »
Burr told a local radio station he supports the bill. Read more »
Cassidy is one of the co-sponsors of the bill. Read more »
Corker told a local paper, "I am very encouraged by the fact that the Graham-Cassidy legislation repeals the core elements of Obamacare." Read more »
As Senate majority whip, Cornyn is trying to whip enough votes to pass the bill. Read more »
Cotton told reporters he plans to vote for the bill Read more »
Daines told reporters he thinks the bill would be good for Montana. Read more »
Flake announced his support on Twitter on Sept. 17. Read more »
Graham is a co-sponsor of the bill. Read more »
Grassley told a reporter "you have a responsibility to carry out what you said in the campaign." Read more »
Heller is one of the co-sponsors of the bill. Read more »
Hoeven told reporters he would support the bill since his state would get more money. Read more »
He told reporters he supported the bill because "as a general rule the states do things better than the federal government." Read more »
Johnson is one of the co-sponsors of the bill. Read more »
Kennedy told reporters he'll support the bill, but also offer some amendments to it. Read more »
As Senate majority Leader, McConnell is trying to whip enough votes to pass the bill. Read more »
Roberts said "something's better than nothing." Read more »
Rounds told reporters he supports the bill. Read more »
Scott told a local paper "To try to dictate health care policy from Washington, D.C., simply does not make sense." Read more »
Shelby told reporters "This is what a lot of us ran on — we’ve been advocating it for years. Let the states run it." Read more »
Sullivan has been meeting with Murkowski to try to earn her support. Read more »
Thune is a member of Republican leadership and commended the bill for essentailly coming back from the dead. Read more »
Additional design and development by Emily Yount and Kevin Uhrmacher.
About this story
Stances on the bill are sourced from lawmaker statements and news reports. Did we miss something? Let us know!
Legislator images via Government Printing Office.
Originally published Sept. 19, 2017.
More stories
There’s one Obamacare repeal bill left standing. Here’s what’s in it.
It gives states more power — but less money — to make their own health-care policy.
Where the Obamacare exchanges might have zero insurers in 2018
Many have said they’ll leave the marketplaces, citing rising costs and Trump-fueled uncertainty.