Caption

A commemorative stamp issued by North Korea

It wasn’t a big surprise, but it was a big deal — so much so that North Korea issued commemorative stamps. Two successful missile launches in July almost certainly proved that the country had produced an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking the United States. And according to U.S. intelligence analysts, the country also has nuclear warheads small enough to fit on them.

Nonproliferation experts had long assumed that the secretive country’s nuclear capability was further along than many people wanted to believe, but seeing the proof was still jarring, particularly because the successful tests came less than a month apart.

North Korea has launched 14 missile tests in 2017, and 10 were successful, according to a database maintained by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. A test in May and the two in July represented giant leaps forward in technology.

To avoid other countries, North Korea launches test missiles at a much higher-than-normal trajectory — nearly straight up — so missiles come down in the Sea of Japan

(East Sea).

Int’l.

Space

Station

orbit:

250

miles

To avoid other countries, North Korea launches test missiles at a much higher-than-normal trajectory — nearly straight up — so missiles come down in the Sea of Japan (East Sea).

International Space

Station orbit:

250 miles

SOUTH KOREA

RUSSIA

CHINA

TAIWAN

JAPAN

—PHILIPPINES

Pacific

Ocean

—Guam (U.S.)

To avoid other countries, North Korea launches test missiles at a much higher-than-normal trajectory — nearly straight up — so missiles come down in the Sea of Japan (East Sea).

International Space

Station orbit: 250 miles

SOUTH KOREA

CHINA

RUSSIA

TAIWAN

JAPAN

Alaska

—PHILIPPINES

Pacific

Ocean

—Guam (U.S.)

The missile tested in May was an intermediate-range projectile that on a more horizontal trajectory could probably reach Guam, according to physicist David Wright, co-director of the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Global Security Program. On Aug. 8 and 9, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un threatened to attack Guam, a key U.S. air and naval site, after President Trump warned of “fire and fury” if North Korea made more threats.

The missiles tested in July were the ones the world had been dreading: two-stage Hwasong-14 ICBMs that appeared quite capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. A two-stage rocket has a second fuel supply that takes over when the first burns out, allowing it to fly farther than a single-stage rocket.

Wright calculated that, depending on fuel, the weight of a warhead and the rotation of Earth, the first ICBM would have been able to reach Alaska. Much of the continental United States would be in range of the second one, he said, including New York and Boston. Washington, D.C., probably would be just outside it.

Altitude:

2,500

miles

MAY 14

An intermediate-

range ballistic missile flew for 30 minutes and traveled 430 miles. Its likely range was up to 3,000 miles, far enough to reach Guam.

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Projected

trajectory

Guam

0

1,000

5,000

3,000

Range in miles

Altitude:

2,500

miles

JULY 4

North Korea’s first successful test of an ICBM flew 37 minutes and traveled 580 miles. Its range was up to 4,200 miles, far enough to reach all of Alaska.

2,000

1,500

1,000

Anchorage

500

Projected

trajectory

0

1,000

3,000

5,000

Range in miles

Altitude:

2,500

miles

JULY 28

A second ICBM test flew 47 minutes and traveled about 600 miles. Its likely range, adjusted to factor in the Earth’s rotation, is 6,800 miles.

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

Seattle

0

1,000

3,000

5,000

Range in miles

Altitude:

2,500

miles

JULY 28

2,000

JULY 4

1,500

MAY 14

1,000

Projected

trajectory

Anchorage

Chicago

500

Seattle

Guam

0

1,000

0

1,000

0

1,000

3,000

3,000

3,000

5,000

Range in miles

Range in miles

A second ICBM test flew 47 minutes and traveled about 600 miles. Its likely range, adjusted to factor in the rotation of the Earth, could extend as far as Boston or New York, almost 6,800 miles from North Korea.

An intermediate-

range ballistic missile flew for 30 minutes and traveled 430 miles. Its likely range was up to 3,000 miles, far enough to reach Guam.

North Korea’s first successful test of an ICBM flew 37 minutes and traveled 580 miles. Its range was up to 4,200 miles, far enough to reach all of Alaska.

Altitude:

2,500

miles

JULY 28:

2,000

A second ICBM test flew 47 minutes and traveled about 600 miles. Its likely range, adjusted to factor in the rotation of the Earth, could extend as far as Boston or New York, almost 6,800 miles from North Korea.

JULY 4:

North Korea’s first successful test of an ICBM flew 37 minutes and traveled 580 miles. Its range was up to 4,200 miles, far enough to reach all of Alaska.

MAY 14:

1,500

An intermediate-

range ballistic missile flew for 30 minutes and traveled 430 miles. Its likely range was up to 3,000 miles, far enough to reach Guam.

1,000

Projected trajectory

500

Projected

trajectory

Guam

Seattle

Chicago

Anchorage

0

1,000

2,000

0

1,000

2,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

3,000

4,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Range in miles

Range in miles

Range in miles

North Korea issued a series of stamps celebrating its ICBM launches.

Kim’s goal has always been to create a credible, long-range nuclear threat to the U.S. mainland to deter the United States from obliterating his regime.

His propaganda is not subtle.

For instance, during an April concert celebrating North Korea’s founding father and Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung, the country unveiled a video that showed its missiles blowing up San Francisco. Other clues indicate that high-priority targets could be strategic military sites rather than population centers.

A 2013 photo accompanying a media report threatening the United States showed Kim with military officers in what looks like a situation room, surrounded by several maps and lists of U.S. installations.

Analysis of this 2013 North Korean image shows potential targets in the United States.

One of those maps clearly showed four lines originating from somewhere in Asia. One ended at Honolulu, home to U.S. Pacific Command and the USS Cheyenne submarine, which can launch long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles. The second ended in Southern California, probably San Diego, the Pacific Fleet’s home port. A third went to Washington. The end point of the fourth line is obscured by an officer’s hat, but analysts suspect it could be Barksdale, La., home to Air Force Global Strike Command, which conducts long-range bomber missions.

Experts have identified several potential targets in the United States, including some that appeared in North Korean propaganda.

Washington area

Whiteman

Air Force Base

Pacific

Ocean

Joint Base

Pearl Harbor-

Hickam

Offutt Air

Force Base

San Diego

area

Hawaii

JULY 4

JULY 28

launch estimated range with

a normal launch trajectory.

launch

Experts have identified several potential targets in the United States, including some that appeared in North Korean propaganda.

ALASKA

JULY 28 launch

Estimated range

with a normal

launch trajectory

CANADA

Pacific

Ocean

Whiteman

Air Force Base,

Missouri

Washington

area

JULY 4 launch

Seattle—

Estimated range

with a normal

launch trajectory

Offutt Air Force Base,

Nebraska

San Francisco—

CALIF.

Barksdale

Air Force Base,

Louisiana

Joint Base

Pearl Harbor-Hickam

San Diego area

HAWAII

MEXICO

ALASKA

JULY 4 launch

JULY 28 launch

Estimated range

with a normal

launch trajectory

Estimated range

with a normal

launch trajectory

CANADA

Experts have identified several potential targets in the United States, including some that appeared in North Korean propaganda.

—Boston

—New York

Population density

D.C.

Whiteman Air Force

Base, Missouri

Seattle—

—Chicago

low

high

Offutt Air Force Base,

Nebraska

Pacific

Ocean

CALIF.

San Francisco—

—Miami

TEXAS

Barksdale

Air Force Base,

Louisiana

San Diego

Joint Base

Pearl Harbor-Hickam

HAWAII

MEXICO

A commemorative stamp issued by North Korea

A commemorative stamp issued by North Korea

The recent successful missile tests do not prove that North Korea has a flawless system, said Catherine Dill, senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in California. Normally two tests of an ICBM would not be enough to deploy it, she said. And no one outside North Korea knows whether Kim has a viable reentry vehicle that could deliver a warhead to a target. Dill said grainy video of the July 28 test may show the missile burning up on reentry into the atmosphere, although she said that could have been because it went so much higher than a normal trajectory in the first place.

But these successful tests do change the political conversation about how to deal with North Korea. “They have reached these very technical milestones, so it’s not like we can stop them from reaching those milestones now,” Dill said. “It’s a lot more tangible now.”

Tim Meko contributed to this report.

Additional sources

Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey; Joshua Pollack, editor of Nonproliferation Review; Scott LaFoy, Imagery & Ballistic Missile Analyst, Arms Control Wonk & NK News. Information from Defense Department’s Base Structure Report (2015); Missile Defense Agency; Rand Corp. report “Overseas Basing of U.S. Military Forces” (2012); Army; Google Earth; population data from European Commission Joint Research Center (JRC).

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