Trump’s trade war has started. Who’s been helped and who’s been hurt?

In January, President Trump imposed tariffs on washing machines and solar panels, followed a few months later by steel and aluminum. On July 6, additional tariffs against Chinese products go into effect.

Administration officials say the import taxes are very small compared with the country’s $18 trillion economy and that they will boost domestic manufacturing and investment. Trump has urged patience as the trade war continues to escalate. But what are the impacts of the tariffs that have already gone into effect?

Washing machines

The 20 percent tariff on washing machines in January was a boon to Whirlpool Corp. The company had been losing market share to Korean manufacturers LG and Samsung and repeatedly petitioned the government for protection from competitors.

The week its request was granted, Whirlpool saw its steepest week-long stock price rise in nearly two years, and shortly afterward LG announced it would be raising the price of its washing machines by 4 to 8 percent, or around $50 per machine. Months later, American consumers began to feel this tariff fallout.

In April, the price of washing machines increased by 9 percent. The next month they increased by 6 percent. Both are the largest monthly price increases since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began collecting such data in 1977.

Solar panels

The price of solar panels has dropped dramatically over the years as technology advanced and imports ballooned. In June the average price was $3.03 per watt, down 20 percent since 2015, according to solar marketplace EnergySage.

That price trend has severely challenged U.S. manufacturers such as Suniva and SolarWorld. The companies had petitioned the federal government for a tariff, and they are expected to benefit from the 30 percent solar tariff imposed in January. But there are few of these manufacturers in the United States, and an estimated 80 percent of solar panels sold here are imported, according to Vikram Aggarwal, CEO of EnergySage.

The U.S. solar industry, however, is much larger than just manufacturing, and overall it is expected to be hurt by the tariffs. Those in the highly competitive solar installation businesses often have to accept lower profits and absorb price increases rather than passing them on to consumers, explaining why prices continue to drop. Nearly 600 installation companies participated in EnergySage’s 2017 Solar Installer Survey, which found that 62 percent favor gaining market share even at the expense of gross margins.

As margins fall, so do the number of major solar installation projects. The solar tariff has already cost 8,000 construction jobs in projects, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association, which predicts those job losses could reach 23,000.

Steel and aluminum

In March and June, the Trump administration significantly expanded its protectionist campaign and imposed tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum, which together account for about $48 billion in imports. The tariffs, justified by an administration finding that the imports threatened national security, exempt only South Korea, Brazil, Argentina and Australia. Steel and aluminum prices jumped.

As in solar, the impact of the steel and aluminum tariffs divides companies and their workers into two camps: those who make the metals and gain tariff protection, and those who must buy the metals and pay higher prices.

Although steel and aluminum producers supported the tariffs overall, some expressed qualms about the tariff's expansive reach. The Aluminum Association said in a statement that it was disappointed the tariff was extended beyond countries like China to “additional vital trading partner countries.” And the Steel Manufacturers Association supported exceptions for key allies such as Mexico and Canada.

With the tariffs, jobs in industries that make steel and aluminum jobs are projected to grow by more than 25,000 in the next three years, according to a study by Trade Partnership Worldwide. Companies have announced expansions. Dormant mills, such as the one in Mingo Junction, Ohio, are on the path to reopening.

But the same Trade Partnership report estimates that 16 U.S. jobs will be lost for every steel- or aluminum-producing job gained, totaling over 400,000 net lost jobs.

One factor for the projected loss is that there are 5.1 million jobs in manufacturing industries that stand to be hurt by higher steel and aluminum prices, according to a Brookings Institution analysis of Emsi data. That compares to 313,000 jobs in the industries that make the metals and will benefit from higher prices.

Higher steel and aluminum prices also could ripple across the economy, in higher costs for commercial construction, the building of roads and bridges, as well as for a wide variety of consumer products. Add to those the estimated impact of retaliation from U.S. trading partners, and the overall cost to the country’s economy the steel and aluminum tariffs will be $37 billion, according to the Trade Partnership.

Retaliations are the riskiest part of Trump’s trade war. So far, seven countries and the European Union plan to impose tariffs on approximately $38 billion worth of U.S. exports. China has imposed retaliatory tariffs on products such as aluminum, pork and fruit. The E.U. has targeted products such as bourbon and motorcycles. Harley-Davidson, citing the E.U. tariffs, announced it would be moving some production of motorcycles offshore for its E.U. market.

The war is still escalating. New tariffs against Chinese goods kick in July 6, with retaliations from China expected the same day. (Although some U.S. companies believe they’re already being targeted.) And the auto industry looms as the next big fight, with the Trump administration threatening new taxes on European vehicles and parts. But many Americans drive imported cars, and every vehicle assembled in the United States is built using at least 25 percent foreign parts, usually much more. This new tariff could have a bigger impact on consumers than all of the previous ones.