2020 Senate map
Democratic-held
Uncalled
Republican-held
Not in play
NH
ME
MT
OR
MN
ID
SD
MA
WY
MI
RI
IA
NE
NJ
IL
DE
CO
WV
VA
KS
KY
NC
TN
AZ
OK
AR
NM
SC
GA
AL
MS
LA
TX
AK
Special election
for McCain’s seat
Runoff needed
in December 2018
50
21
12
35 Dems. not in play
31 Reps. not in play
2020 Senate map
Democratic-held
Uncalled
Republican-held
Not in play
NH
ME
MT
OR
MN
MA
ID
SD
RI
WY
MI
IA
Special election
for McCain’s
seat
NJ
NE
IL
DE
CO
WV
VA
KS
KY
NC
TN
AZ
OK
AR
NM
SC
GA
AL
MS
LA
TX
AK
Runoff needed
in December 2018
50
35 Dems. not in play
21
31 Reps. not in play
12
35 Dems. not in play
12
19
33 Reps. not in play
2020 Senate map
Democratic-held
Republican-held
Not in play
Uncalled
NH
ME
MT
OR
MN
MA
ID
SD
RI
WY
MI
Special election
for McCain’s
seat
IA
NJ
NE
IL
DE
CO
WV
VA
KS
KY
NC
TN
AZ
OK
AR
NM
SC
GA
AL
MS
LA
TX
AK
Runoff needed
in December 2018
50
35 Dems. not in play
21
31 Reps. not in play
12
2020 Senate map
Democratic-held
Republican-held
Uncalled
Not in play
NH
ME
MT
OR
MN
MA
ID
SD
RI
WY
MI
IA
NJ
NE
IL
DE
WV
Special election
for McCain’s seat
CO
VA
KS
KY
NC
TN
AZ
OK
AR
NM
SC
GA
AL
MS
LA
TX
AK
Runoff needed
in December 2018
50
35 Dems. not in play
21
31 Reps. not in play
12
There’s still one race left in the 2018 election — a special election runoff in Mississippi — but we already know Republicans have expanded their majority. And that’s in large part because it was such a difficult map for Democrats. They had many more seats in play (26) than Republicans (9), and some of those elections took place in deep-red states like West Virginia, Montana, Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri.
So how is the Senate map in 2020? Better for Democrats but still not great.
What have we learned from 2018
Unlike a member of the House, who is beholden to a more homogenous and often politically polarized district, senators are supposed to represent their entire state. This would seem to incentivize more moderate ideologies in the upper chamber. But senators are also very polarized, with the most moderate ones being Republicans in blue states and Democrats in red states, and most others aligning with their parties regularly. The most vulnerable ones tend to be the most moderate ones — in part because their voting records reflect the difficulty of their state.
Once again, winning the Senate looks to be a tough slog for Democrats — and that may not change anytime soon. While the House was gerrymandered by Republicans to be more favorable to them, the Senate map is also very tough for Democrats — albeit for different reasons. Democrats simply have more voters clustered in fewer states. So blue California has about 70 times as many people as red Wyoming but the same number of senators. In the 2016 election, President Trump won 30 states, while Hillary Clinton won just 20. That means 60 senators serve in Trump states, while 40 serve in Clinton states.
The urban-rural divide has accentuated this trend. Blue voters are concentrated in urban areas, and big urban areas are concentrated in just a few states. New Jersey has a population of 9 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau — more than Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho, Utah and Nebraska together (8.9 million).
Red is
built-up areas
N.D.
OR
S.D.
Idaho
Wyo.
Neb.
AK
200 MILES
Utah
N.J.
Red is built-up
areas
N.D.
OR
S.D.
Idaho
Wyo.
Neb.
AK
200 MILES
Utah
N.J.
NORTH DAKOTA
Red is built-up areas
SOUTH DAKOTA
IDAHO
WYOMING
NEBRASKA
100 MILES
UTAH
N.J.
NORTH DAKOTA
Red is built-up areas
SOUTH DAKOTA
IDAHO
WYOMING
NEBRASKA
100 MILES
UTAH
N.J.
How upcoming Senate maps compare to the 2016 presidential vote
Looking at how each state voted in 2016 has become a key proxy for considering the political lean of each state. This will be particularly important in 2020, with the increased turnout and attention a presidential race provides.
Clinton
Trump
+20%
10
5
2.5
0
2.5
5
10
+20%
ME
WI
VT
NH
AK
ID
WA
MT
ND
MN
IL
MI
NY
MA
OR
NV
WY
SD
IA
IN
OH
PA
NJ
CT
RI
CA
UT
CO
NE
MO
KY
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
KS
AR
TN
NC
SC
LA
MS
AL
GA
HI
OK
TX
FL
Seats in play, by current incumbent
Democrat
Republican
Undecided
Independent elected officials that caucus with
the Democratic party are counted as Democrats.
2020
ME
NH
AK
ID
MT
MN
IL
MI
MA
OR
WY
SD
IA
NJ
RI
CO
NE
KY
WV
DE
VA
AZ
NM
NC
KS
AR
TN
SC
LA
MS
AL
GA
OK
TX
2022
WI
VT
NH
AK
ID
WA
ND
IL
NY
OR
NV
SD
IA
IN
OH
PA
CT
CA
UT
CO
MO
KY
MD
AZ
KS
AR
NC
SC
LA
AL
GA
HI
OK
Special
election
in 2020
FL
2024
ME
WI
VT
WA
MT
ND
MN
MI
NY
MA
NV
WY
IN
OH
PA
NJ
CT
RI
CA
UT
NE
MO
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
TN
MS
HI
TX
FL
Clinton
Trump
+20%
10
5
2.5
0
2.5
5
10
+20%
ME
WI
VT
NH
AK
ID
WA
MT
ND
MN
IL
MI
NY
MA
OR
NV
WY
SD
IA
IN
OH
PA
NJ
CT
RI
CA
UT
CO
NE
MO
KY
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
KS
AR
TN
NC
SC
LA
MS
AL
GA
HI
OK
TX
FL
Seats in play, by current incumbent
Independent elected officials that caucus with
the Democratic party are counted as Democrats.
Democrat
Republican
Undecided
2020
ME
NH
AK
ID
MT
MN
IL
MI
MA
OR
WY
SD
IA
NJ
RI
CO
NE
KY
WV
DE
VA
AZ
NM
KS
AR
TN
IA
SC
LA
MS
AL
GA
OK
TX
2022
WI
VT
NH
AK
ID
WA
ND
IL
NY
OR
NV
SD
IA
IN
OH
PA
CT
CA
UT
CO
MO
KY
MD
AZ
KS
AR
NC
SC
LA
AL
GA
HI
OK
Special
election
in 2020
FL
2024
ME
WI
VT
WA
MT
ND
MN
MI
NY
MA
NV
WY
IN
OH
PA
NJ
CT
RI
CA
UT
NE
MO
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
TN
MS
HI
TX
FL
Clinton
Trump
+20%
10
5
2.5
0
2.5
5
10
+20%
ME
WI
VT
NH
AK
ID
WA
MT
ND
MN
IL
MI
NY
MA
OR
NV
WY
SD
IA
IN
OH
PA
NJ
CT
RI
CA
UT
CO
NE
MO
KY
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
KS
AR
TN
NC
SC
LA
MS
AL
GA
HI
OK
TX
FL
Seats in play, by current incumbent
Democrat
Republican
Undecided
Independent elected officials that caucus with
the Democratic party are counted as Democrats.
2020
ME
NH
AK
ID
MT
MN
IL
MI
MA
OR
WY
SD
IA
NJ
RI
CO
NE
KY
WV
VA
DE
NC
AZ
NM
KS
AR
TN
SC
LA
MS
AL
GA
OK
TX
2022
WI
VT
NH
AK
ID
WA
ND
IL
NY
OR
NV
SD
IA
IN
OH
PA
CT
CA
UT
CO
MO
KY
MD
AZ
KS
AR
NC
SC
LA
AL
GA
HI
OK
Special
election
in 2020
FL
2024
ME
WI
VT
WA
MT
ND
MN
MI
NY
MA
NV
WY
IN
OH
PA
NJ
CT
RI
CA
UT
NE
MO
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
TN
MS
HI
TX
FL
Clinton
Trump
ME
+20%
10
5
2.5
0
2.5
5
10
+20%
WI
VT
NH
AK
ID
WA
MT
ND
MN
IL
MI
NY
MA
OR
NV
WY
SD
IA
IN
OH
PA
NJ
CT
RI
CA
UT
CO
NE
MO
KY
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
KS
AR
TN
NC
SC
LA
MS
AL
GA
HI
OK
TX
FL
Seats in play, by current incumbent
Democrat
Republican
Undecided
2020
2022
2024
ME
ME
NH
WI
VT
NH
WI
VT
AK
AK
ID
ID
MT
MN
IL
MI
MA
WA
ND
IL
NY
WA
MT
ND
MN
MI
NY
MA
OR
OR
WY
SD
IA
NJ
RI
NV
SD
IA
IN
OH
PA
CT
NV
WY
IN
OH
PA
NJ
CT
RI
CO
NE
KY
WV
VA
DE
CA
UT
CO
MO
KY
MD
CA
UT
NE
MO
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
AZ
AZ
NM
NC
KS
AR
TN
SC
KS
AR
NC
SC
TN
LA
MS
AL
GA
LA
AL
GA
MS
OK
HI
OK
HI
TX
TX
FL
FL
Special
election
in 2020
Independent elected officials that caucus with the Democratic party are counted as Democrats.
Clinton
Trump
ME
+20%
10
5
2.5
0
2.5
5
10
+20%
WI
VT
NH
AK
ID
WA
MT
ND
MN
IL
MI
NY
MA
OR
NV
WY
SD
IA
IN
OH
PA
NJ
CT
RI
CA
UT
CO
NE
MO
KY
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
KS
AR
TN
NC
SC
LA
MS
AL
GA
HI
OK
TX
FL
Seats in play, by current incumbent
Democrat
Republican
Undecided
2020
2022
2024
ME
ME
NH
WI
VT
NH
WI
VT
AK
AK
ID
ID
MT
MN
IL
MI
MA
WA
ND
IL
NY
WA
MT
ND
MN
MI
NY
MA
OR
OR
WY
SD
IA
NJ
RI
NV
SD
IA
IN
OH
PA
CT
NV
WY
IN
OH
PA
NJ
CT
RI
CO
NE
KY
WV
VA
DE
CA
UT
CO
MO
KY
MD
CA
UT
NE
MO
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
AZ
AZ
NM
KS
AR
TN
NC
SC
KS
AR
NC
SC
TN
LA
MS
AL
GA
LA
AL
GA
MS
OK
HI
OK
HI
Special
election
in 2020
TX
TX
FL
FL
Independent elected officials that caucus with the Democratic party are counted as Democrats.
Laris Karklis contributed to this report.
About this story
The Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voter Index measures partisan lean. To get a score, the 2012 and 2016 presidential election results in each state or congressional district were compared to the national average. Read more.
The first dimension of the DW-Nominate index scores a lawmaker's voting record between -1 (most liberal) and 1 (most conservative). Read more.
Population data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
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