Three reasons moderate Republicans are backing an immigration vote

A group of House Republicans is bucking the rest of its party by attempting to force a vote on protecting immigrants brought into the country illegally as children. After Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-Minn.) signed a rarely used “discharge petition” on Wednesday, just four more Republican signatures would force a House vote (if all 193 Democrats support it).

Some of the lawmakers represent competitive districts in traditionally blue states, such as California and New York. Three are from heavily Hispanic areas in South Florida. Others occupy more conservative seats.

While many have expressed their frustration at lack of progress on overhauling immigration, an analysis of their districts reveals other possible motivations for a typically loyal group to rebel against party leaders.

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1 They represent the most Hispanic Republican districts

Representatives of seven of the 13 Republican districts with the largest share of Hispanics or Latinos have already signed the petition. All five whose districts are more than 60 percent Hispanic have signed it.

They include Rep. Carlos Curbelo (Fla.), who introduced the petition, and Rep. Jeff Denham (Calif.), who wrote it. Four bills would be considered in the voting scenario, including at least two that would grant legal status to “dreamers.”

Notable petition signers

Rep. Carlos Curbelo (Fla.): Curbelo has been leading the effort to force a vote. He represents one of three GOP districts with many Hispanics in South Florida.

Rep. David Valadao (Calif.): Valadao represents more estimated DACA recipients than any other Republican.

Rep. Will Hurd (Tex.): Hurd’s district has a longer stretch of the U.S.-Mexico border than any other. He introduced a bill that would grant permanent legal residency to dreamers, along with some border security measures.

In total, 13 of 21 signers represent districts that are either heavily Hispanic or that supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 — in several cases both.

2 Most face competitive reelection fights or are retiring

Twelve signers’ districts backed Clinton for president. Four of the signers have already announced that they are retiring. (Another already left Congress, but his signature still counts under House rules.)

Notable petition signers

Rep. Mike Coffman (Colo.): Clinton won the district in the Denver suburbs by nine percentage points.

Rep. Jeff Denham (Calif.): Denham’s race is ranked as a toss-up, and his district is more than 40 percent Hispanic.

Rep. Leonard Lance (N.J.): There are not many dreamers in Lance’s district, but he is facing a difficult reelection fight in a district that narrowly backed Clinton.

Lawmakers who are retiring: Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Fla.), Ryan Costello (Pa.), Dave Reichert (Wash.) and Dave Trott (Mich.) are not seeking reelection this year. Rep. Charlie Dent (Pa.) already left Congress, but his signature still counts.

Those signees who are running for reelection face a more dire political situation back home than other Republicans.

Cook Political Report rates the districts of petition signers as more competitive than the rest of the Republican conference.

3 Others are acting on behalf of farmers in their districts

Members have cited their districts’ reliance on agricultural workers as a reason for their support of the petition.

A stalwart Trump supporter, Rep. Chris Collins (N.Y.) opted to sign the petition, saying he wants to show farmers in his district that he is trying to help them.

Notable petition signers

Rep. Chris Collins (N.Y.): “Right now, my dairy farmers are saying to Republicans: You’ve got the House, the Senate, the White House, and you’ve got to give us a legal workforce, and I agree with that,” Collins told The Washington Post.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.): Congress must act on immigration “including for our agriculture workers,” Stefanik said in a news release.

Rep. Fred Upton (Mich.): Dairy, apple and asparagus farmers in his district all rely on immigrant labor.

The immigration fight dealt another blow to farmers this month when members of the far-right House Freedom Caucus voted down the farm bill to demand a vote on their preferred immigration plan, though Republican lawmakers agree it lacks the votes to pass.

The conservative alternative

The petition-signing group consists of mostly Republicans with some of the most moderate voting records.

Many more from across the ideological spectrum have signed on as co-sponsors of a more conservative bill sponsored by Rep. Bob Goodlatte (Va.) and Rep. Michael McCaul (Tex.).

That bill would grant only temporary status for dreamers, lower legal immigration levels, target “sanctuary cities” that do not cooperate with federal authorities and bolster border security.

Other Republicans are watching how negotiations with leadership play out before they sign the petition to bring up a vote, which needs only four more signatures to move ahead.