Politics

Iowa’s chaos is New Hampshire’s gain

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

Nearly a week after the Iowa caucuses, Democrats are still waiting to find out who won. Even with 100 percent of results reported, the race is still too close to call. That’s made the Tuesday primary in New Hampshire more important than ever.

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

KEENE, NH - FEBRUARY 8: Pete Buttigieg addresses a crowd of nearly 1000 at Keene State College in Keene, NH on February 8, 2020. (Photo by Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post)

Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post

Milford, NH - February 4:

Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks to voters in Milford, New Hampshire, on Tuesday, February 4, 2020. (Photo by Sarah Rice for The Washington Post)

Sarah Rice/For The Washington Post

For Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and former South Bend, Ind., mayor Peter Buttigieg, nearly tied in Iowa, it’s an opportunity to break away from the pack. For Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Joe Biden, who finished third and fourth, respectively, it’s a chance for a comeback.

Sarah Rice/For The Washington Post

HENNIKER, NEW HAMPSHIRE - DECEMBER 5, 2019: Speaking to and meeting New Hampshire voters, 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Mayor Pete Buttigieg holds a town hall meeting on Thursday December 5, 2019 in Henniker, New Hampshire. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

Milford, NH - February 4:

Sen. Bernie Sanders gives his wife, Jane O'Meara Sanders, a kiss before taking the stage to speak to voters in Milford, New Hampshire, on Tuesday, February 4, 2020. (Photo by Sarah Rice for The Washington Post)

Sarah Rice/For The Washington Post

LACONIA, USA- FEBRUARY 4: Democratic presidential candidate, Pete Buttigieg, hosted a town hall at the Laconia Middle School in Laconia, New Hampshire on Tuesday, February 4, 2020.

(Photo by John Tully for The Washington Post)

John Tully/For The Washington Post

Milford, NH - February 4:

Aaron Beckwith of Hopkinton, New Hampshire, shows off his socks before Sen. Bernie Sanders spoke to voters in Milford, New Hampshire, on Tuesday, February 4, 2020. (Photo by Sarah Rice for The Washington Post)

Sarah Rice/For The Washington Post

The sudden focus on New Hampshire has some scrambling. Many candidates went all-in on Iowa this cycle; there has been a historic lack of advertising in New Hampshire this year. And many primary voters are still undecided.

Sarah Rice/For The Washington Post

HENNIKER, NEW HAMPSHIRE - DECEMBER 5, 2019: 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Mayor Pete Buttigieg answers questions from journalists after a town hall meeting on Thursday December 5, 2019 in Henniker, New Hampshire. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

CONCORD, NEW HAMPSHIRE - DECEMBER 6, 2019: Democratic presidential candidate Mayor Pete Buttigieg speaks to New Hampshire voters during a crowded house party on Friday December 6, 2019 in Concord, New Hampshire. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

ROCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 8: Supporters wait in line for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidate Town Hall at the Rochester Opera House on Saturday, February 8, 2020 in Rochester, New Hampshire. (Photo by Salwan Georges/The Washington Post)

Salwan Georges/The Washington Post

A recent survey by the University of New Hampshire found that nearly half of the electorate is undecided, with only 31 percent firmly committed and 20 percent open to switching. “I have never in my lifetime seen such a high number of undecided voters here,” Ann Kuster, 63, said recently.

Salwan Georges/The Washington Post

NASHUA, NH - February 4:

Joe Biden supporters yell at a protestor who was interrupting Biden while he was speaking to voters at Girls Inc. in Nashua, New Hampshire, on Tuesday, February 4, 2020. (Photo by Sarah Rice for The Washington Post)

Sarah Rice/For The Washington Post

CONCORD, NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 9, 2020: New Hampshire voters listen to Democratic Presidential Candidate Senator Elizabeth Warren during a get out the vote event at Rundlett Middle School in Concord, New Hampshire on Saturday February 9, 2020. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

MANCHESTER , NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 8: A supporter carries a poster with the head of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidate outside of SNHU Arena during the 61st Annual McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner on Saturday, February 8, 2020 in Manchester, New Hampshire. (Photo by Salwan Georges/The Washington Post)

Salwan Georges/The Washington Post

LACONIA, USA- FEBRUARY 4: Democratic presidential candidate, Andrew Yang, exits following a community forum event at the Lakes Region Community College in Laconia, New Hampshire on Tuesday, February 4, 2020.

(Photo by John Tully for The Washington Post)

John Tully/For The Washington Post

Sanders and Warren, who both represent states that neighbor New Hampshire, face particularly high pressure. Sanders won New Hampshire four years ago and is looking to repeat that performance, cementing his front-runner status. Warren, meanwhile, is looking for a strong finish to ease concerns after Iowa.

John Tully/For The Washington Post

MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 8, 2020: Democratic Presidential Candidate Senator Elizabeth Warren with her husband Bruce Mann, and their dog Bailey, go canvassing door to door through a Manchester, New Hampshire neighborhood Saturday February 8, 2020. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

PETERBOROUGH, NEW HAMPSHIRE - DECEMBER 6, 2019: Democratic presidential candidate Senator Elizabeth Warren answers questions from journalists at a bowling alley in Peterborough, New Hampshire on Friday December 6, 2019. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

CONCORD, NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 8, 2020: Democratic Presidential Candidate Senator Elizabeth Warren does a pinky promise before participating in a presidential forum at New Hampshire Technical Institute in Concord, New Hampshire Saturday February 8, 2020. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

CONCORD, NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 9, 2020: Democratic Presidential Candidate Senator Elizabeth Warren speaks to New Hampshire voters at Blake's Restaurant during breakfast in Concord, New Hampshire on Saturday February 9, 2020. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

KEENE, NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 4, 2020: Democratic Presidential Candidate Senator Elizabeth Warren speaks to and meets New Hampshire voters during a town hall meeting at the Colonial Theatre in Keene, New Hampshire Tuesday February 4, 2020. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

Biden, meanwhile, faces challenges here that may be even greater than those he dealt with in Iowa. The relative lack of minorities, whose support is crucial to his bid, is once again a factor here. Whites make up 91 percent of Iowa and 93 percent in New Hampshire, according to Census Bureau figures.

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

NASHUA, NH - February 4:

Joe Biden speaks to voters at Girls Inc. in Nashua, New Hampshire, on Tuesday, February 4, 2020. (Photo by Sarah Rice for The Washington Post)

Sarah Rice/For The Washington Post

HAMPTON, NH - FEBRUARY 9: Joe Biden mingles with supporters after speaking to a gathering in Hampton, NH on February 9, 2020. (Photo by Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post)

Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post

HAMPTON, NH - FEBRUARY 9: Joe Biden takes selfies with supporters after speaking to a gathering in Hampton, NH on February 9, 2020. (Photo by Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post)

Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post

A key difference between New Hampshire and Iowa is this state’s wealth. Unlike Iowa’s farm-based economy, which is subject to the swings of trade wars and soybean prices, New Hampshire has thrived as a high-tech hub and attracts many wealthier residents seeking its low tax rates.

Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post

MANCHESTER , NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 8: Entrepreneur Andrew Yang, 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidate speaks during the 61st Annual McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner on Saturday, February 8, 2020 in Manchester, New Hampshire. (Photo by Salwan Georges/The Washington Post)

Salwan Georges/The Washington Post

With so much uncertainty, Democrats across the country are looking to New Hampshire for answers. And the pressure on candidates is high.

Salwan Georges/The Washington Post

HANOVER, NH - FEBRUARY 8: Senator Amy Klobuchar addresses a crowd at Dartmouth College in Hanover, NH on February 8, 2020. (Photo by Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post)

Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post

Mandatory Credit: Photo by JUSTIN LANE/EPA-EFE/REX (10549324b)

US presidential candidate Tom Steyer campaigns at a brewery in Manchester, New Hampshire, USA, 05 February 2020. The first state primary in the United States' presidential election will be held in New Hampshire on 11 February 2020.

Presidential Campaign in New Hampshire, Manchester, USA - 05 Feb 2020

Justin Lane/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

In the past 17 New Hampshire primaries, 14 winners went on to be elected president, and the other three who occupied the White House finished in second place here. “No one has come in less than second in a New Hampshire presidential primary and gone on to be president,” said New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner, the longtime guardian of the first-primary status.

Justin Lane/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock

PETERBOROUGH, NEW HAMPSHIRE - DECEMBER 6, 2019: Democratic presidential candidate Senator Elizabeth Warren speaks to and meets New Hampshire voters at a bowling alley in Peterborough, New Hampshire on Friday December 6, 2019. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

MILFORD, NEW HAMPSHIRE - DECEMBER 5, 2019: New Hampshire voters give their questions to campaign volunteers while on line outside a town hall meeting to be held by 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Mayor Pete Buttigieg on Thursday December 5, 2019 in Milford, New Hampshire. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

KEENE, NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 4, 2020: Democratic Presidential Candidate Senator Elizabeth Warren speaks to and meets New Hampshire voters during a town hall meeting at the Colonial Theatre in Keene, New Hampshire Tuesday February 4, 2020. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Melina Mara/The Washington Post

KEENE, NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 9: Supporters wait in line for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidate concert rally at Keene State College on Sunday, February 9, 2020 in Keene, New Hampshire. (Photo by Salwan Georges/The Washington Post)

Salwan Georges/The Washington Post

ROCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE - FEBRUARY 8: Supports listen as Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidate speak during a Town Hall at the Rochester Opera House on Saturday, February 8, 2020 in Rochester, New Hampshire. (Photo by Salwan Georges/The Washington Post)

Salwan Georges/The Washington Post

NASHUA, NH - February 4:

Supporters wait for Joe Biden to speak to voters at Girls Inc. in Nashua, New Hampshire, on Tuesday, February 4, 2020. (Photo by Sarah Rice for The Washington Post)

Sarah Rice/For The Washington Post