2016 Post-SurveyMonkey poll
2012 presidential election result
Other presidential results: 2008
1972
← Democrat win
Close race (Within 3 pts.)
Republican win →
West Virginia, Trump +23
One of only 11 states the Democrats won in 1988, West Virginia is now solidly Republican.
Utah, Trump +11
Utah was the strongest state for Republicans in 2012, winning by nearly 50 points. Not so in 2016. Many in the state are not keen on Trump, making it a closer race than normal, with lots of undecided voters.
Texas, Clinton +1
Texas splits about evenly between Clinton and Trump in the new poll. That’s a significant change from past elections in the traditionally Republican stronghold.
Iowa, Trump +4
Ohio, Trump +3
Michigan, Clinton +2
These three swing states lean more for Trump than they did for Romney on Election Day four years ago.
New Jersey, Clinton +15
New York, Clinton +22
California, Clinton +24
Trump suggested he could turn these traditionally blue states red for the first time in decades. It doesn’t appear to be happening.
* The sample size for D.C. was too small to report poll results.

Why Democrats have the advantage

While Clinton and Trump are leading in an equal number of states, Democrats have tended to perform better in states with more electoral votes, meaning Clinton holds a substantial lead in the electoral college according to the poll.

Number of states

10

20

20

Solid or

leaning Clinton

Toss-up

Solid or

leaning Trump

126

168

244

270

to win

Number of electoral votes

Number of states

10

20

20

Solid or

leaning Clinton

Solid or

leaning Trump

Toss-up

Calif.

N.Y.

Pa.

Fla.

Tex.

Ohio

Ind.

168

126

244

270

to win

Number of electoral votes

Trump will need to win almost every toss-up, and fend off a rare challenge in usually Republican Texas, to clinch the needed 270 electoral votes.

Dan Keating contributed to this report.

Sources: Federal Archives, American Presidency Project, 2016 Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll.

This Washington Post-SurveyMonkey 50-state poll was conducted online Aug. 9 - Sept. 1 among 74,886 registered voters. The sample was drawn among the respondents who completed user-generated polls using SurveyMonkey’s platform during this period, and results are weighted to match demographic characteristics of registered voters in each state. No margins of sampling error are calculated, as this statistic is only applicable to randomly sampled surveys. For full question wording and methodological details, see here.

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