With voting underway in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton is ahead in so many states that she has oodles of routes to 270 electoral votes and the presidency. And for as many routes as Clinton has, Donald Trump has remarkably few. At this point, in order to win Trump would basically have to all but run the table in the vast majority of the competitive states – many of which he trails in, according to the polls.
It’s a tall hill to climb, and that fact becomes even more evident when you play around with the electoral votes and try to get your candidate to 270. Which you can do below!
The Fix’s Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake have deemed 29 states (plus D.C.) safe for either Clinton or Trump, based on polls, the history of how states have voted, conversations with smart political analysts and where outside groups are focusing their campaign spending. Just those states give Clinton a 182-96 advantage – already more than two-thirds of the way to 270.
That leaves 21 states that are in-play, which translates to 221 — or 2,097,152 — possible outcomes. Based on her head start in "safe" electoral votes, Clinton wins 89 percent of the possible outcomes, while Trump takes 11 percent.
Even if she just takes all of the states that she is expected to win, she gets 275 electoral votes, enough for the win.
Trump, meanwhile, has cut deeply into previously double-digit deficits in three key swing states: Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia. Assuming he doesn’t win any of those three, he basically needs to win both of the usual big prizes -- Florida and Ohio -- and then piece together enough electoral votes in other swing states to get to 270. He can do that either through the Rust Belt and the Midwest by picking off Pennsylvania, or through winning the vast majority of traditional swing states, including Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
Below are six possible scenarios for each candidate – three apiece:
The Fix’s Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake have deemed 29 states (plus D.C.) safe for either Clinton or Trump. Just those states give Clinton a 182-96 advantage – already more than two-thirds of the way to 270. Use this simulator to see how Trump could still win — or create your own scenarios.