Between Super Tuesday, on March 1, and March 15, a majority of all Republican delegates and about 40 percent of Democratic delegates will be awarded. In other words, the next two weeks will determine the clear front-runners for the parties’ presidential nominees. Below you'll find our 15-day delegate forecast, based on current state poll data, past primary results, reporter insight and delegate-allocation rules, such as whether a state’s contest awards them proportionally, as a winner-take-all contest or a hybrid of both. Superdelegates are excluded from these totals.
Update: On Super Tuesday, Trump gained delegates ( fewer than predicted) and Clinton gained ( fewer than predicted).
1,237 delegates needed for the nomination
2,382 delegates needed for the nomination
Trump saw a 168-delegate surge between March 1 and March 15.
Clinton saw a 445-delegate surge between March 1 and March 15.
Polling predictions and primary results
Delegate expectations are calculated by using the latest reliable polling estimates of candidate support in combination with delegate allocation rules (proportional or winner take all). When quality polls are unavailable, the forecast gets cloudier: In such cases, candidate support is estimated using election results or polling from states with a similar political and demographic makeup.