Much to the dismay of some Republicans, the party’s primary process is working just as intended. Designed to choose a nominee quickly, this year’s rules have advanced that air of inevitability forming around Donald Trump, who has won 15 of the first 24 contests.
More votes means even more delegates
Top-performing candidates get more delegates than their vote totals might suggest. Trump won about 35 percent of all the votes cast through March 8 but earned 43 percent of the delegates available in those contests. Ted Cruz, who won six states in that time period, also benefited a bit from rules that help the leading candidates.
PORTION OF ALL VOTES
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Kasich
34.4%
28.6%
21.2%
6.8%
43.3%
33.9%
16.9%
4.1
PORTION OF ALL DELEGATES
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 percent
because of rounding.
PORTION OF ALL VOTES
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Kasich
OTHERS
34.4%
28.6%
21.2%
6.8%
9.0%
43.3%
33.9%
16.9%
4.1
1.7%
PORTION OF ALL DELEGATES
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 percent because of rounding.
This delegate boost will grow come March 15, when most states have rules that favor the front-runner.
Leaving it up to the states
The Republican National Committee gives states and their parties leeway to decide their process within some boundaries, resulting in a patchwork of rules.
Winner-take-all
Winner-take-more
Proportional with winner-take-all chance
Proportional
Convention
ME
WI
VT
NH
WA
ID
MT
ND
MN
IL
MI
NY
MA
OR
NV
WY
SD
IA
IN
OH
PA
NJ
CT
RI
CA
UT
CO
NE
MO
KY
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
KS
AR
TN
NC
SC
DC
OK
LA
MS
AL
GA
HI
AK
TX
FL
Convention
Winner-
take-all
Winner-
take-more
Proportional
with winner-
take-all chance
Proportional
ME
WI
VT
NH
WA
ID
MT
ND
MN
IL
MI
NY
MA
OR
NV
WY
SD
IA
IN
OH
PA
NJ
CT
RI
CA
UT
CO
NE
MO
KY
WV
VA
MD
DE
AZ
NM
KS
AR
TN
NC
SC
DC
OK
LA
MS
AL
GA
HI
AK
TX
FL
MT
SD
OH
NJ
NE
DE
AZ
FL
WINNER-TAKE-ALL
The quickest way to earn a lot of delegates. A winning candidate in the statewide vote gets all of the state’s delegates, even if he has earned less than 50 percent of the vote.
WI
IL
IN
PA
CT
CA
MO
WV
MD
SC
WINNER-TAKE-MORE
These states reward winners heavily.
In some, the winner in each congressional district earns all three
of that district’s delegates. In South Carolina, Trump won statewide delegates and every district, turning
it into a winner-take-all state.
ME
VT
ID
MI
NY
UT
AR
TN
OK
AL
GA
TX
PROPORTIONAL WITH A WINNER-TAKE-ALL TRIGGER
These states distribute delegates more proportionally, but candidates can walk away with many delegates if they earn over a set threshold.
NH
WA
MN
MA
OR
NV
IA
RI
KY
VA
NM
KS
NC
DC
LA
MS
HI
AK
PROPORTIONAL
Proportional states give out their
delegates roughly based on the percentage of the vote. Often at district level, two delegates are awarded to the winner and one to the second-place finisher, shutting out someone in a close third.
ND
WY
CO
CONVENTION
State party conventions will decide
who to support in a few states.
WINNER-TAKE-ALL
MT
The quickest way to earn a lot of delegates. A winning candidate in the statewide vote gets all of the state’s delegates, even if he has earned less than 50 percent of the vote.
SD
OH
NJ
NE
DE
AZ
FL
WINNER-TAKE-MORE
WI
These states reward winners heavily.
In some, the winner in each congressional district earns all three
of that district’s delegates. In South Carolina, Trump won statewide delegates and every district, turning
it into a winner-take-all state.
IL
IN
PA
CT
CA
MO
WV
MD
SC
ME
VT
PROPORTIONAL WITH A WINNER-TAKE-ALL TRIGGER
ID
MI
NY
These states distribute delegates more proportionally, but candidates can walk away with many delegates if they earn over a set threshold.
UT
AR
TN
OK
AL
GA
TX
PROPORTIONAL
NH
Proportional states give out their
delegates roughly based on the percentage of the vote. Often at district level, two delegates are awarded to the winner and one to the second-place finisher, shutting out someone in a close third.
WA
MN
MA
OR
IA
RI
NV
KY
VA
NM
KS
NC
DC
LA
MS
HI
AK
CONVENTION
ND
State party conventions will decide
who to support in a few states.
WY
CO
How many delegates are available in each type
Only one-quarter of the delegates are given out in strictly proportional states. Another quarter come from proportional states that become winner-take-all if a candidate crosses a certain threshold, which varies by state.
391
Winner-take-all
Winner-take-more
613
Proportional, with a chance
to be winner-take-all
710
Proportional
637
Other
121
Proportional,
with a chance to be
winner-take-all
Winner-
take-all
Winner-
take-more
Proportional
Other
637
391
613
710
121
How the schedule has changed
In the last several cycles, many states had moved their contests earlier, forcing the primary calendar into January as they jockeyed for influential first-state status. This made for a long primary season. Trying to reverse this trend, the RNC established penalties in 2012, but some states, including Florida, moved their contests up anyway.
This year’s delegate penalties are much more strict. The party banned January contests and allowed only four states to vote in February. It also moved the last primary earlier, shortening the cycle so a nominee would more quickly emerge from the field and be better positioned for the general election.
The party also halved the time frame in which states are required to distribute delegates proportionally, which spans March 1 to 14 this year, compared with all of March in 2012.
For this reason, contests from March 15 on become far more consequential, and far more favorable to the front-runner. Trump can lock up the nomination by winning these.
Winner-take-all
Winner-take-more
Proportional with winner-take-all chance
Proportional
FEB.
Super
Tuesday
Proportionality
period
MARCH
March 15
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
Note: States holding conventions and the
District of Columbia are omitted from this chart.
Winner-take-all
Winner-take-more
Proportional with winner-take-all chance
Proportional
BEFORE MARCH 14
AFTER MARCH 14
600 delegates
Super
Tuesday
400
March 15
OH
200
FL
0
FEB.
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
Proportionality
period
Note: States holding conventions and the District of Columbia are omitted from this chart.
Winner-take-all
Winner-take-more
Proportional with winner-take-all chance
Proportional
BEFORE MARCH 14
AFTER MARCH 14
600 delegates
VA
VT
Super
Tuesday
TX
400
TN
OH
March 15
OK
SD
NM
IL
MN
NJ
MA
200
MO
MT
GA
ME
NC
HI
LA
CT
AR
RI
CA
ID
UT
AK
PA
KY
WV
FL
NY
DE
MI
AZ
IN
AL
SC
WI
WA
KS
NE
MD
OR
IA
NH
NV
MS
0
FEB.
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
Proportionality
period
Note: States holding conventions and the District of Columbia are omitted from this chart.
While Trump stands to benefit from these state rules, they could end up being his undoing. His opponents are looking to the delegate-rich winner-take-all states such as Florida and Ohio to quickly close Trump’s lead. While unlikely, if someone can seize the front-runner status from Trump, the rules would work in their favor instead.