Top Republican finishers in Iowa’s

presidential caucus have alternated

between one

more

establishment,

moderate candidate and another who

is more

or more

or more

evangelical

conservative.

Eventual GOP nominee

Eventual president

1st place

2nd place

2012

Rick Santorum

Mitt Romney

2008

Mike Huckabee

Mitt Romney

2000

George W. Bush

Steve Forbes

1996

Robert Dole

Pat Buchanan

1988

Robert Dole

Pat Robertson

1980

George H.W. Bush

Ronald Reagan

Which counties have

consistently voted

in one lane

Six out of 10 voters live in counties that have backed one of these party lanes in both the 2008 and 2012 caucuses.

Won by Romney in ‘08 and ’12

Won by Huckabee in ‘08

and Santorum in ’12

Won by other combinations

of candidates

Cedar

Falls

35

Sioux City

Ames

380

Cedar

Rapids

29

80

80

Davenport

Des Moines

35

50 MILES

Top Republican finishers in Iowa’s presidential caucus have alternated

between one

more moderate candidate and another

establishment,

who is more

or more conservative.

evangelical

Eventual GOP nominee

Eventual president

1st place

2nd place

Rick Santorum

Mitt Romney

2012

Mike Huckabee

Mitt Romney

2008

George W. Bush

Steve Forbes

2000

Robert Dole

Pat Buchanan

1996

Robert Dole

Pat Robertson

1988

George H.W. Bush

Ronald Reagan

1980

Which counties have consistently voted in one lane

Six out of 10 voters live in counties that have backed one of these

party lanes in both the 2008 and 2012 caucuses.

Won by Romney in ‘08 and ’12

Won by Huckabee in ‘08 and Santorum in ’12

Won by other combinations of candidates

Estherville

Spencer

Algona

Le Mars

35

Cedar

Falls

Fort Dodge

Sioux City

Cedar

Rapids

380

Carroll

Ames

29

Denison

Newton

Davenport

80

Iowa City

Des Moines

80

35

0

50

29

MILES

Top Republican finishers in Iowa’s presidential caucus have alternated

between one

more moderate candidate and another

establishment,

who is more

or more conservative.

evangelical

Eventual GOP nominee

Eventual president

1st place

2nd place

Rick Santorum

Mitt Romney

2012

Mike Huckabee

Mitt Romney

2008

George W. Bush

Steve Forbes

2000

Robert Dole

Pat Buchanan

1996

Robert Dole

Pat Robertson

1988

George H.W. Bush

Ronald Reagan

1980

Which counties have consistently voted in one lane

Six out of 10 voters live in counties that have backed one of these

party lanes in both the 2008 and 2012 caucuses.

Won by Romney in ‘08 and ’12

Won by Huckabee in ‘08 and Santorum in ’12

Won by other combinations of candidates

Estherville

Spencer

Algona

Le Mars

35

Cedar

Falls

Fort Dodge

Sioux City

380

Cedar

Rapids

Carroll

Ames

Denison

29

Newton

80

Davenport

Iowa City

Des Moines

80

35

0

50

29

MILES

Top Republican finishers in Iowa’s

presidential caucus have alternated between

more moderate

establishment,

one

candidate and another who is more

or more

or more conservative.

evangelical

Eventual GOP nominee

Eventual president

1st place

2nd place

2012

Rick Santorum

Mitt Romney

2008

Mike Huckabee

Mitt Romney

2000

George W. Bush

Steve Forbes

1996

Robert Dole

Pat Buchanan

1988

Robert Dole

Pat Robertson

1980

George H.W. Bush

Ronald Reagan

Which counties have

consistently voted in one lane

Six out of 10 voters live in counties that have backed one of these party lanes in both the 2008 and 2012 caucuses.

Won by Romney in ‘08 and ’12

Won by Huckabee in ‘08 and Santorum in ’12

Won by other combinations of candidates

Cedar

Falls

35

Sioux City

Ames

380

Cedar

Rapids

29

80

80

Davenport

Des Moines

35

50 MILES

[Trump, Sanders will put tradition to the test in Iowa caucuses]

Where Romney won

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, whose supporters valued experience and electability, won only 10 of 99 Iowa counties in the last two caucuses, but they included those with large populations.

 

Won both 2008 and 2012 caucuses

Won either caucus

Cedar

Falls

Sioux City

Cedar

Rapids

Ames

Des Moines

Davenport

Percent of 2012 voters

in darkest shaded counties

28%

Where Santorum and

Huckabee won

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former senator Rick Santorum both won in 57 mostly rural and smaller counties.

Top priorities of their supporters were moral character and sincerity.

Huckabee won 2008 caucus

and Santorum won 2012

Either Huckabee won 2008

causus or Santorum won 2012

Cedar

Falls

Sioux City

Cedar

Rapids

Ames

Des Moines

Davenport

Percent of 2012 voters

in darkest shaded counties

33%

Where counties swung

Remaining counties were a key battleground, switching lanes or favoring hopefuls such as the independent-minded libertarian Ron Paul, a former Texas congressman and favorite of young voters.

Won by Ron Paul

in 2008 and 2012

Won by others

Cedar

Falls

Sioux City

Cedar

Rapids

Ames

Des Moines

Davenport

Percent of 2012 voters

in lightest shaded counties

40%

This year’s race doesn’t fit

into the tidy, historical map

Establishment

Evangelical

Bush

Rubio

Cruz

Carson

Former

governor

Sitting

senator

Sitting

senator

Retired

neurosurgeon

???

Trump

Billionaire

businessman

The problem with that thinking is, Trump doesn’t fit in a lane. He’s certainly not establishment. And while his support includes evangelicals, it spans ideology and religion. Will his frontrunner status in polls translate into support from areas that prize electability? In areas where social issues matter most, will Trump’s past support for legal abortion hurt, or will voters rally to his unfiltered style?

 

It may be time to rip up the old Iowa map. And maybe those of other Republican primary states as well.

Where Romney won

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, whose supporters valued experience and electability, won only 10 of 99 Iowa counties in the last two caucuses, but they included those with large populations.

 

Won both 2008

and 2012 caucuses

Cedar

Falls

Sioux City

Won either caucus

Cedar

Rapids

Ames

Percent of 2012 voters

in darkest shaded counties

Des Moines

Davenport

28%

Where Huckabee and Santorum won

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former senator Rick Santorum both won in 57 mostly rural and smaller counties.

Top priorities of their supporters were moral character and sincerity.

Huckabee won 2008 caucus

and Santorum won 2012

Cedar

Falls

Sioux City

Either Huckabee won 2008

causus or Santorum won 2012

Cedar

Rapids

Ames

Percent of 2012 voters

in darkest shaded counties

Des Moines

Davenport

33%

Where counties swung

Remaining counties were a key battleground, switching lanes or favoring hopefuls such as the independent-minded libertarian Ron Paul, a former Texas congressman and favorite of young voters.

Won by Ron Paul

in 2008 and 2012

Cedar

Falls

Sioux City

Won by others

Cedar

Rapids

Ames

Percent of 2012 voters

in lightest shaded counties

Des Moines

Davenport

40%

This year’s race doesn’t fit into the tidy, historical map

Bush

Rubio

Cruz

Carson

Trump

Former

governor

U.S.

senator

Billionaire

businessman

U.S.

senator

Retired

neurosurgeon

Establishment

???

Evangelical

The problem with that thinking is, Trump doesn’t fit in a lane. He’s certainly not establishment. And while his support includes evangelicals, it spans ideology and religion. Will his frontrunner status in polls translate into support from areas that prize electability? In areas where social issues matter most, will Trump’s past support for legal abortion hurt, or will voters rally to his unfiltered style?

 

It may be time to rip up the old Iowa map. And maybe those of other Republican primary states as well.

Where Romney won

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, whose supporters valued experience and electability, won only 10 of 99 Iowa counties in the last two caucuses, but they included those with large populations.

 

Won both 2008

and 2012 caucuses

Cedar

Falls

Sioux City

Won either caucus

Cedar

Rapids

Ames

Percent of 2012 voters

in darkest shaded counties

Des Moines

Davenport

28%

Where Huckabee and Santorum won

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former senator Rick Santorum both won in 57 mostly rural and smaller counties.

Top priorities of their supporters were moral character and sincerity.

Huckabee won 2008 caucus

and Santorum won 2012

Cedar

Falls

Sioux City

Either Huckabee won 2008

causus or Santorum won 2012

Cedar

Rapids

Ames

Percent of 2012 voters

in darkest shaded counties

Des Moines

Davenport

33%

Where counties swung

Remaining counties were a key battleground, switching lanes or favoring hopefuls such as the independent-minded libertarian Ron Paul, a former Texas congressman and favorite of young voters.

Won by Ron Paul

in 2008 and 2012

Cedar

Falls

Sioux City

Won by others

Cedar

Rapids

Ames

Percent of 2012 voters

in lightest shaded counties

Des Moines

Davenport

40%

This year’s race doesn’t fit into the tidy, historical map

Trump

Bush

Rubio

Cruz

Carson

Former

governor

U.S.

senator

Billionaire

businessman

U.S.

senator

Retired

neurosurgeon

Establishment

???

Evangelical

The problem with that thinking is, Trump doesn’t fit in a lane. He’s certainly not establishment. And while his support includes evangelicals, it spans ideology and religion. Will his frontrunner status in polls translate into support from areas that prize electability? In areas where social issues matter most, will Trump’s past support for legal abortion hurt, or will voters rally to his unfiltered style?

 

It may be time to rip up the old Iowa map. And maybe those of other Republican primary states as well.

Where Romney won

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, whose supporters valued experience and electability, won only

10 of 99 Iowa counties in the last two caucuses, but they included those

with large populations.

 

Won both 2008 and 2012 caucuses

Won either caucus

Cedar

Falls

Sioux City

Cedar

Rapids

Ames

Des Moines

Davenport

Percent of 2012 voters

in darkest shaded counties

28%

Where Santorum and Huckabee won

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former senator Rick Santorum both won in 57 mostly rural

and smaller counties. Top priorities

of their supporters were moral character

and sincerity.

Huckabee won 2008 caucus

and Santorum won 2012

Either Huckabee won 2008

causus or Santorum won 2012

Cedar

Falls

Sioux City

Cedar

Rapids

Ames

Des Moines

Davenport

Percent of 2012 voters

in darkest shaded counties

33%

Where counties swung

Remaining counties were a key battleground, switching lanes or favoring hopefuls such as the independent-minded libertarian Ron Paul, a former Texas congressman and favorite of young voters.

Won by Ron Paul in 2008 and 2012

Won by others

Cedar

Falls

Sioux City

Cedar

Rapids

Ames

Des Moines

Davenport

Percent of 2012 voters

in lightest shaded counties

40%

This year’s race doesn’t fit

into the tidy, historical map

Establishment

Evangelical

Bush

Rubio

Cruz

Carson

Former

governor

Sitting

senator

Sitting

senator

Retired

neurosurgeon

???

Trump

Billionaire

businessman

The problem with that thinking is, Trump doesn’t fit in a lane. He’s certainly not establishment. And while his support includes evangelicals, it spans ideology and religion. Will his frontrunner status in polls translate into support from areas that prize electability? In areas where social issues matter most, will Trump’s past support for legal abortion hurt, or will voters rally to his unfiltered style?

 

It may be time to rip up the old Iowa map. And maybe those of other Republican primary states as well.

Editor's picks

Iowa election results

GRAPHIC | What to watch for, past winners, the latest polls. The Iowa caucuses are Feb. 1, 2016.

Who’s winning 2016?

GRAPHIC | Need to catch up on the presidential candidates? Here is who's winning in polling, endorsements and money.