GOP Win, Place, Show
Nothing is officially settled with only four early states' voting done, but Trump's opponents need a drastic change to alter the trajectory.
IOWA
N.H.
S.C.
NEV.
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Carson
Kasich
The governor of Ohio hopes to win
Midwestern contests, in Michigan and
his home state.
If Ben Carson leaves, Ted Cruz is
likely to pick up the evangelical vote.
IOWA
N.H.
S.C.
NEV.
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
Trump
Rubio
Cruz
Carson
Kasich
If Ben Carson leaves, Ted Cruz is
likely to pick up the evangelical vote.
The governor of Ohio hopes
to win Midwestern contests,
in Michigan and his home state.
Delegate lead growing
Trump is heading into Super Tuesday with the lion's share of delegates from the first four primary races. He leads with 79 delegates. At least 1,237 are needed to secure the nomination. Trump is on track to win big on Super Tuesday, when 595 delegates are at stake.
IOWA
N.H.
NEV.
TOT.
S.C.
50
12
10
7
Trump
79
8
5
3
16
Cruz
7
5
3
15
Rubio
1
4
Kasich
5
3
Carson
3
IOWA
N.H.
S.C.
NEV.
TOTAL
50
12
10
7
Trump
79
8
5
3
16
Cruz
7
5
3
15
Rubio
1
4
Kasich
5
3
Carson
3
[Donald Trump is on course to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to be the GOP nominee]
Narrowing field can change dynamic
The most likely way to change the Republican race is for Trump to be squared off against only one or two opponents. Six candidates dropped out through the first four races, more than in the past two Republican primary seasons. This shows each candidate's last vote share on the day before they stepped out.
Vote share of candidates on the day
they quit the 2016 race
S.C.
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
15%
10
Bush
Christie
Paul
5
Fiorina
Huckabee
Santorum
0
Feb. 1
Feb. 9
Feb. 20
Feb.
23
2012 campaign cycle
Iowa
N.H.
Fla.
S.C.
15%
Huntsman
Perry
10
5
Bachmann
0
Jan. 3
Jan. 10
Jan.
21
Jan.
31
2008 campaign cycle
Nev.
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
15%
Thompson
10
Giuliani
5
Hunter
0
Jan. 3
Jan. 8
Jan. 19
Vote share of candidates on the day they quit the 2016 race
S.C.
Iowa
N.H.
Nev.
15%
10
Christie
Bush
Paul
5
Fiorina
Huckabee
Santorum
0
Feb. 1
Feb. 9
Feb. 20
Feb. 23
2012 campaign cycle
Iowa
N.H.
Fla.
S.C.
15%
Huntsman
Perry
10
5
Bachmann
0
Jan. 3
Jan. 10
Jan. 21
Jan. 31
2008 campaign cycle
Nev.
Iowa
N.H.
S.C.
Thompson
15%
10
5
Giuliani
Hunter
0
Jan. 3
Jan. 8
Jan. 19