GOP Win, Place, Show

Nothing is officially settled with only four early states' voting done, but Trump's opponents need a drastic change to alter the trajectory.

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

NEV.

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

 

Trump

Rubio

Cruz

Carson

Kasich

The governor of Ohio hopes to win

Midwestern contests, in Michigan and

his home state.

If Ben Carson leaves, Ted Cruz is

likely to pick up the evangelical vote.

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

NEV.

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

 

Trump

Rubio

Cruz

Carson

Kasich

If Ben Carson leaves, Ted Cruz is

likely to pick up the evangelical vote.

The governor of Ohio hopes

to win Midwestern contests,

in Michigan and his home state.

Delegate lead growing

Trump is heading into Super Tuesday with the lion's share of delegates from the first four primary races. He leads with 79 delegates. At least 1,237 are needed to secure the nomination. Trump is on track to win big on Super Tuesday, when 595 delegates are at stake.

IOWA

N.H.

NEV.

TOT.

S.C.

50

12

10

7

Trump

79

8

5

3

16

Cruz

7

5

3

15

Rubio

1

4

Kasich

5

3

Carson

3

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

NEV.

TOTAL

50

12

10

7

Trump

79

8

5

3

16

Cruz

7

5

3

15

Rubio

1

4

Kasich

5

3

Carson

3

Narrowing field can change dynamic

The most likely way to change the Republican race is for Trump to be squared off against only one or two opponents. Six candidates dropped out through the first four races, more than in the past two Republican primary seasons. This shows each candidate's last vote share on the day before they stepped out.

Vote share of candidates on the day

they quit the 2016 race

S.C.

Iowa

N.H.

Nev.

15%

10

Bush

Christie

Paul

5

Fiorina

Huckabee

Santorum

0

Feb. 1

Feb. 9

Feb. 20

Feb.

23

2012 campaign cycle

Iowa

N.H.

Fla.

S.C.

15%

Huntsman

Perry

10

5

Bachmann

0

Jan. 3

Jan. 10

Jan.

21

Jan.

31

2008 campaign cycle

Nev.

Iowa

N.H.

S.C.

15%

Thompson

10

Giuliani

5

Hunter

0

Jan. 3

Jan. 8

Jan. 19

Vote share of candidates on the day they quit the 2016 race

S.C.

Iowa

N.H.

Nev.

15%

10

Christie

Bush

 

Paul

5

Fiorina

Huckabee

Santorum

0

Feb. 1

Feb. 9

Feb. 20

Feb. 23

2012 campaign cycle

Iowa

N.H.

Fla.

S.C.

15%

Huntsman

Perry

10

5

Bachmann

0

Jan. 3

Jan. 10

Jan. 21

Jan. 31

2008 campaign cycle

Nev.

Iowa

N.H.

S.C.

Thompson

15%

10

5

Giuliani

Hunter

0

Jan. 3

Jan. 8

Jan. 19