The real race among Republicans in New Hampshire: Second place

Ohio Gov. John Kasich won a strong second place in the Republican primary by building up margins of several hundred votes each in the state capital, Concord; Nashua, by the Massachusetts border; Portsmouth, along the coast; Amherst; and the state's largest city, Manchester.

Second-place

winner

Lead over

third place

+600

votes

400

100

(Donald Trump, Chris Christie,

Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio)

Note: Data as

of 1:36 a.m.,

88% reporting

Concord

+657

Portsmouth

+588

Amherst

Nashua

Manchester

+458

+588

+240

Kasich’s vote lead over

third-place candidates

Most of Kasich’s large second-place victories were in urban areas.

JEB BUSH

0

200

400

+600

Nashua

Concord

+657

+588

TED CRUZ

Merrimack

Hooksett

+154

TED CRUZ

(Christie, Fiorina, Rubio)

Amherst

+458

0

200

400

+600

The real race among Republicans in New Hampshire: Second place

Ohio Gov. John Kasich won a strong second place in the Republican primary by building up margins of several hundred votes each in the state capital, Concord; Nashua, by the Massachusetts border; Portsmouth, along the coast; Amherst; and the state's largest city, Manchester.

Second-place

winner

Lead over

third place

+600

votes

400

Cruz won second place in areas north of Portsmouth

100

(Donald Trump, Chris Christie,

Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio)

Concord

+657

Note: Data as of 1:36 a.m.,

88% reporting

Portsmouth

+588

Amherst

Nashua

Manchester

+458

+588

+240

Kasich’s vote lead over third-place candidates

200

400

+600

JEB BUSH

Concord

Nashua

+657

+588

TED CRUZ

Merrimack

Hooksett

+154

Most of Kasich’s large second-place victories were in urban areas.

OTHERS

Amherst

(Christie,

Fiorina,

Rubio)

+458

0

200

400

+600

The real race among Republicans in New Hampshire: Second place

Second-place

winner

Lead over

third place

+600

Ohio Gov. John Kasich won a strong second place in the Republican primary by building up margins of several hundred votes each in the state capital, Concord; Nashua, by the Massachusetts border; Portsmouth, along the coast; Amherst; and the state's largest city, Manchester.

votes

400

100

(Donald Trump, Chris Christie,

Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio)

Kasich’s vote lead over third-place candidates

Note: Data as of 1:36 a.m.,

88% reporting

200

400

+600

JEB BUSH

Concord

Nashua

+657

+588

Kasich came

in first place in these areas

TED CRUZ

Merrimack

+158

Hooksett

Cruz won second place in areas north of Portsmouth

+154

Most of Kasich’s large second-place victories were in urban areas.

Concord

+657

OTHERS

Amherst

(Christie,

Fiorina,

Rubio)

+458

Portsmouth

+588

Amherst

Nashua

Manchester

0

200

400

+600

+458

+588

+240

What winning each state will get you

Looking forward from Iowa and New Hampshire, here are how 2008’s and 2012’s early state winners clinched the 14 primaries and caucuses through Super Tuesday.

Eventual nominee

[Winners and losers from the New Hampshire primary]

REPUBLICANS

2012 Primary

1st in Iowa

OK

TN

CO

Rick Santorum

AL

MN

Wins 5 others

1st in N.H.

TX

VA

AK

Mitt Romney

MA

VT

AR

Wins 7 others

NV

Lost in both

SC

GA

Newt Gingrich

Wins 2 states

DEMOCRATS

2008 Primary

1st in Iowa

SC

VT

AL

Barack Obama

VA

AK

CO

Wins 8 others

GA

MN

1st in N.H.

NV

MA

AR

Hillary Clinton

OK

TN

TX

Wins 6 others

1st in Iowa

1st in New Hampshire

Lost in both

REPUBLICANS

2012 Primary

Rick Santorum

Mitt Romney

Newt Gingrich

Wins 5 other states

Wins 7 other states

Wins 2 states

OK

TN

CO

TX

VA

AK

SC

AL

MN

MA

VT

AR

GA

NV

1st in Iowa

1st in New Hampshire

DEMOCRATS

2008 Primary

Barack Obama

Hillary Clinton

Wins 8 other states

Wins 6 other states

SC

VT

AL

NV

MA

AR

VA

AK

CO

OK

TN

TX

GA

MN

REPUBLICANS

DEMOCRATS

2012 Primary

2008 Primary

1st in Iowa

1st in New Hampshire

1st in Iowa

1st in New Hampshire

Lost in both

Rick Santorum

Mitt Romney

Newt Gingrich

Barack Obama

Hillary Clinton

Wins 8 other states

Wins 6 other states

Wins 5 other states

Wins 7 other states

Wins 2 states

SC

VT

AL

NV

MA

AR

OK

TN

CO

TX

VA

AK

SC

VA

AK

CO

OK

TN

TX

AL

MN

MA

VT

AR

GA

GA

MN

NV

On Feb. 20, Democrats hold their caucus in Nevada and Republicans hold their primary in South Carolina. On Feb. 23, the Republicans hold their caucus in Nevada. Four days later, on Feb. 27, the Democrats hold their primary in South Carolina.

The first three moves in the presidential primary

History has shown that winning Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina is no easy feat. Building momentum in these three states is often key to winning a presidential nomination.

In the past, New Hampshire winners haven’t often won South Carolina, but many eventually win their party’s presidential nomination.

Eventual nominee

2016

Upcoming

S.C.

IOWA

N.H.

1 —

2 —

3 —

 

Cruz

Trump

Rubio

Gov. John Kasich is the only candiate to jump six spots between primary states.

Kasich

In 2012, Newt Gingrich focused on

South Carolina to boost his campaign for

Super Tuesday.

2012

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

Santorum

Romney

Paul

Gingrich

Huntsman

Sen. John McCain ignored Iowa

but took command after New Hampshire.

2008

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

Huckabee

Romney

Thompson

McCain

DEMOCRATS

2016

Upcoming

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

1 —

2 —

 

Clinton

Sanders

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton

continued to battle until early June

of 2008.

2008

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

Obama

Edwards

Clinton

2004

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

Kerry

Edwards

Dean

Clark

REPUBLICANS

2016

2012

2008

N.H.

S.C.

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

IOWA

IOWA

N.H.

1 -

2 -

3 -

 

Huckabee

Cruz

Santorum

Romney

Romney

Trump

Thompson

Rubio

Paul

McCain

Gingrich

Sen. John McCain

ignored Iowa but took

command after New

Hampshire.

Huntsman

Kasich

Gov. John Kasich is the

only candiate to jump

six spots between

primary states.

In 2012, Newt Gingrich focused

on South Carolina to boost his

campaign for Super Tuesday.

DEMOCRATS

2016

2008

2004

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

IOWA

N.H.

Clinton

Obama

Kerry

Edwards

Edwards

Sanders

Clinton

Dean

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton

continued to battle until early June of 2008.

Clark

REPUBLICANS

2016

2012

2008

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

IOWA

N.H.

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

1 —

2 —

3 —

 

1 —

2 —

3 —

 

1 —

2 —

3 —

 

Cruz

Santorum

Huckabee

Romney

Romney

Trump

Rubio

Paul

Thompson

Gingrich

McCain

Gov. John Kasich is

the only candiate

to jump six spots

between primary states.

In 2012, Newt Gingrich

focused on South Carolina

to boost his campaign for

Super Tuesday.

Sen. John McCain

ignored Iowa but took

command after New

Hampshire.

Huntsman

Kasich

DEMOCRATS

2016

2008

2004

IOWA

N.H.

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

IOWA

N.H.

S.C.

1 —

2 —

 

 

1 —

2 —

3 —

 

1 —

2 —

3 —

 

Clinton

Obama

Kerry

Sanders

Edwards

Edwards

Clinton

Dean

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton

continued to battle until early June of 2008.

Clark

Note: Does not include years with incumbent seeking reelection.

How income shaped Sanders’s support

Although Sanders carried nearly all of New Hampshire’s towns, his margin of victory over Clinton tended to be narrower where incomes were higher. His average margin was +37% in towns below the state median household income, while it was only +25% in towns above the median income.

Population size

80,000

20,000

+50%

 

+25

 

Margin of victory

SANDERS

CLINTON

$64,900

N.H. median

+25%

$120,000

80,000

40,000

Median household income

Sanders’s average margin of victory

Below state median household income

Above state median household income

37%

25%

S

C

Sanders’s average margin of victory in towns above state median household income

25%

Bedford

$120,000

Median

household

income

Population size

80,000

20,000

80,000

Nashua

$64,900

Windsor

69%

N.H. median

Manchester

40,000

+25%

+50%

 

+25%

 

CLINTON

SANDERS

Margin of victory

37%

Sanders’s average margin of victory in towns below state median household income

Note: Some smaller towns enlarged for visability. Towns with fewer than 25 Democratic votes were excluded.

Looking ahead, Sanders will need to diversify his voting coalition

Bernie Sanders carried 61 percent of the white vote Tuesday according to preliminary exit-poll results reported by CNN and other networks. Higher non-white populations in upcoming states mean the senator from Vermont will need to appeal to more diverse electorates.

The first two states to vote have been disproportionately white.

0

50

100%

IA

NH

NV

white*

NONWHITE

TX

MS

FL

MO

NC

OH

UT

HI

NY

MD

WV

CA

Every state that votes on Super Tuesday, except Sanders’s home state of Vermont, has more

nonwhites than either Iowa

or New Hampshire.

0

20

40

60

80

100%

12.2

FEBRUARY

IA

8.3

NH

47.3%

NV

The first two states to vote have a larger portion of white voters.

SC

NONWHITE

white*

MARCH

AL

AR

CO

GA

MA

MN

OK

TN

55.7

TX

6.1

VT

VA

Every state that votes on Super Tuesday, except Sanders’s home state of

Vermont, has more nonwhites than either Iowa or New Hampshire.

KS

LA

NE

ME

ID

MI

MS

FL

IL

MO

NC

19.5

OH

AZ

UT

AK

77.1

HI

WA

APRIL

WI

WY

42.7

NY

CT

DE

MD

PA

RI

MAY

IN

WV

KY

OR

JUNE

60.8

CA

MT

NJ

NM

SD

ND

FEBRUARY

MARCH

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

100

77.1

80

White*

60.8

60

55.7

47.3%

42.7

40

19.5

20

12.2

Nonwhite

8.3

6.1

0

IA

NH

NV

SC

AL

AR

CO

GA

MA

MN

OK

TN

TX

VT

VA

KS

LA

NE

ME

ID

MI

MS

FL

IL

MO

NC

OH

AZ

UT

AK

HI

WA

WI

WY

NY

CT

DE

MD

PA

RI

IN

WV

KY

OR

CA

MT

NJ

NM

SD

ND

Every Super Tuesday state — except Sanders’s home state of Vermont — has more nonwhites

than either Iowa or New Hampshire.

The first two states to vote have a larger portion of white voters.

* Non-Hispanic whites

Super Tuesday will be an obstacle for Kasich

New Hampshire’s more-moderate electorate gave Kasich a second-place finish, but his path forward looks less friendly. As the race turns to the South, candidates with more evangelical support — namely Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Trump — can expect to do well in Super Tuesday contests.

Southern Super Tuesday states such

as Georgia, Tennessee and Texas have high percentages of evangelical

Christians. These are also the states with the most delegates up for grabs that day.

0

50

100%

IA

NH

AL

Evangelical

Non-evangelical

GA

MA

OK

TN

TX

KY

MS

OH

UT

If Kasich survives

past Super

Tuesday, he could do well in

Midwestern states such as Michigan

and his home state of Ohio.

WV

0

20

40

60

80

100

IA

28

FEBRUARY

NH

13

SC

NV

AL

MARCH

49%

Southern Super

Tuesday states such

as Georgia, Tennessee and Texas have high percentages of

evangelical Christians. These are also the states with the most delegates up for grabs that day.

AK

AR

Evangelical

Non-evangelical

CO

GA

MA

9

MN

OK

47

TN

52

TX

31

VT

VA

WY

KS

KY

49

LA

ME

HI

ID

MI

MS

41

FL

IL

MO

NC

OH

AZ

If Kasich survives

past Super Tuesday, he could do well in

Midwestern states such as Michigan

and his home state

of Ohio.

UT

7

WI

APRIL

NY

CT

DE

MD

PA

RI

IN

MAY

NE

39

WV

OR

WA

JUNE

CA

MT

NJ

NM

SD

ND

FEBRUARY

MARCH

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

100

80

Non-evangelical

60

52

49

49%

47

41

39

40

31

28

20

13

9

Evangelical

7

0

IA

NH

SC

NV

AL

AK

AR

CO

GA

MA

MN

OK

TN

TX

VT

VA

WY

KS

KY

LA

ME

HI

ID

MI

MS

FL

IL

MO

NC

OH

AZ

UT

WI

NY

CT

DE

MD

PA

RI

IN

NE

WV

OR

WA

CA

MT

NJ

NM

SD

ND

Southern Super Tuesday states such as Georgia, Tennessee and Texas have high percentages of

evangelical Christians. These are also the states

with the most delegates up for grabs that day.

If Kasich survives past Super Tuesday, he could do well in Midwestern states such as Michigan and his home state of Ohio.

Sources: Census Bureau; Pew Research Center; election results from Associated Press

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