Kasich

Rubio

Trump

Cruz

Carson

6

16

82

17

4

delegates

Kasich

Rubio

Trump

Cruz

Carson

4

6

16

82

17

delegates

Kasich

Rubio

Trump

Cruz

Carson

6

16

82

17

4

delegates

Nearly 600 delegates are up for grabs on Super Tuesday — the most for any day of the 2016 primary season. The bulk of them come from seven Southern contests, including the day’s biggest prize: Texas.

DELEGATES AT STAKE

AL

AK

AR

GA

MA

MN

50

28

40

76

42

38

TX

TN

VT

VA

OK

16

43

58

49

155

Texas

Vt.

Va.

Ala.

Alaska

Ark.

Ga.

Mass.

Minn.

Okla.

Tenn.

155

delegates

16

50

28

40

76

42

38

43

58

49

Texas

Vt.

Va.

Ala.

Alaska

Ark.

Ga.

Mass.

Minn.

Okla.

Tenn.

155

delegates

at stake

50

28

40

76

42

38

43

58

49

16

Marching toward the nomination

The majority of delegates are at stake during March. The competing hopes of Trump and of his opponents rest on what happens in the two weeks starting Tuesday.

Feb.

March

April

May

June

1,434 delegates

133

403

199

303

595 delegates are up for

grabs on Super Tuesday

Feb.

March

April

May

June

1,434 delegates

133

403

199

303

595 delegates are up for

grabs on Super Tuesday

NH

WA

VT

ME

MT

ND

OR

MN

MA

ID

WI

NY

SD

RI

WY

MI

CT

PA

IA

NJ

NE

NV

OH

IN

IL

DE

UT

CO

WV

CA

VA

MD

KS

MO

KY

DC

NC

TN

OK

AZ

AR

NM

SC

AL

GA

MS

LA

TX

AK

FL

HI

Texas: Cruz’s must-win

Texas is one of the few states Trump may lose Tuesday. It’s a must-win for Cruz, the Texas native who has been favored in polls. Cruz could take all 155 delegates with majority wins across the state and its congressional districts. But a close win could sap his momentum, and a loss would likely end the Cruz run.

[Cruz on track for a Texas win, but he needs a landslide]

Delegate thresholds in Texas

All delegates

No candidate is

currently polling greater

than 50 percent in Texas.

60%

of vote

50%

Some delegates

Recent Texas

polling average

40%

37%

Cruz

30%

22%

Trump

20%

No delegates

15%

Rubio

10%

7%

Carson

5%

Kasich

0%

of vote

Delegate thresholds in Texas

0% OF VOTE

20%

50%

No delegates

Some delegates

All delegates

5%

7%

15%

22%

37%

in recent Texas polls

Kasich

Rubio

Trump

Cruz

Carson

Cruz placed third in both South Carolina and Nevada after Trump beat him among evangelicals, a critical support base for Cruz. Few states with high evangelical populations vote after March 15, so those states are critical contests for him.

[Ted Cruz has an evangelical problem]

AL

AK

AR

GA

MA

MN

49%

22%

46%

38%

9%

19%

TN

VT

VA

OK

TX

31%

11%

47%

52%

30%

PERCENT EVANGELICAL POPULATION

Texas

Vt.

Va.

Ala.

Alaska

Ark.

Ga.

Mass.

Minn.

Okla.

Tenn.

11%

49%

22%

46%

38%

9%

19%

47%

52%

31%

30%

PERCENT EVANGELICAL POPULATION

Texas

Ala.

Alaska

Ark.

Ga.

Mass.

Minn.

Okla.

Tenn.

Vt.

Va.

11%

49%

22%

46%

38%

9%

19%

47%

52%

31%

30%

Minnesota: Rubio’s best shot

If Marco Rubio’s newly combative style has altered momentum in the race, Minnesota may tell first. It’s a caucus state, which typically means lower turnout. So, a small group of motivated Rubio supporters could make an outsize difference.

[Inside Marco Rubio’s suburban strategy]

A more dramatic test for Rubio comes March 15 in his must-win, home state of Florida. That’s also the first day a winner can walk away with all of a state’s delegates. If Rubio is the victor there, the following winner-take-all states would offer an opening to close Trump’s delegate lead.

HOW STATES ALLOCATE

THEIR DELEGATES

Hybrid

Winner-take-all

Proportional

FEB.

Super

Tuesday

Proportionality

period

MARCH

March 15

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

Note: States holding conventions are

omitted from this chart.

HOW STATES ALLOCATE THEIR DELEGATES

Winner-take-all

Hybrid

Proportional

600 delegates

Super

Tuesday

400

March 15

OH

200

FL

0

FEB.

MARCH

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

Proportionality

period

Note: States holding conventions are omitted from this chart.

HOW STATES ALLOCATE THEIR DELEGATES

Winner-take-all

Hybrid

Proportional

600 delegates

VA

VT

Super

Tuesday

TX

400

TN

OH

March 15

OK

SD

NM

IL

MN

NJ

MA

200

MO

MT

GA

ME

NC

HI

LA

CT

AR

RI

CA

ID

UT

AK

PA

KY

WV

FL

NY

DE

MI

AZ

IN

AL

SC

WI

WA

KS

NE

MD

OR

IA

NH

NV

MS

0

FEB.

MARCH

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

Proportionality

period

Note: States holding conventions are omitted from this chart.

It’s Trump’s day to lose

Except for Texas, expectations for Trump are high across Super Tuesday states — especially after he won almost every demographic group last week in South Carolina. When the results roll in, look for signs among Trump’s opponents of any consolidation that could make the race competitive. That is, if it’s not already too late.

A near sweep by Trump will mean that all of his opponents will have lost to him in more than a dozen contests, and may find it harder to dodge the label loser.

[4 reasons Chris Christie endorsed Donald Trump]

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