Polls in many battleground states underestimated Trump’s support, according to election results Tuesday, notably in a few states key to Donald Trump's victory, Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin. Polls in the first two states showed a close race before Trump won comfortably, and Wisconsin polls showed Clinton ahead. Current results are preliminary and could change as more votes are counted.

Trump was leading in only one of 15 national polls conducted the week before the election. Clinton’s average polling margin was 2.9 percentage points.

National

Hillary Clinton leads in the popular vote by 0.2 percentage points now, though she does not have the number of electoral votes needed to win.

Polling lead

(% points)

10

Election result

TRUMP

0

CLINTON

Major

national

polls

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polls ending on Nov.

National

Hillary Clinton leads in the popular vote by

0.2 percentage points now, though she does not

have the number of electoral votes needed to win.

Polling lead

(% points)

10

TRUMP

0

CLINTON

Election result

Major national polls

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polls ending on Nov.

National

Hillary Clinton leads in the popular vote by

0.2 percentage points now, though she does not

have the number of electoral votes needed to win.

Polling lead

(% points)

10

TRUMP

0

CLINTON

Election result

Major national polls

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polls ending on Nov.

The Rust Belt

Trump’s promises to create jobs and eliminate disadvantageous trade deals earned him significant support among white working-class voters in the Rust Belt, a traditional stronghold for Democrats.

Polls had Clinton with narrow leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Ohio tilted slightly in Trump’s direction.

Ohio

Polling lead

(% points)

Election result

10

8.6

TRUMP

0

CLINTON

Major statewide polls

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polls ending on Nov.

Michigan

10

0.3

0

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Pennsylvania

10

1.2

0

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Ohio

Michigan

Pennsylvania

Polling lead

(% points)

Election result

10

10

10

8.6

TRUMP

1.2

0.3

0

0

0

CLINTON

Major statewide polls

10

10

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polls ending on Nov.

Ohio

Michigan

Pennsylvania

Polling lead

(% points)

Election result

10

10

10

8.6

TRUMP

1.2

0.3

0

0

0

CLINTON

Major statewide polls

10

10

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polls ending on Nov.

But Tuesday night, Michigan and Pennsylvania flipped, and Trump secured Ohio with a half-million-vote margin.

He won Pennsylvania, a state that has voted for a Democratic nominee in every presidential election since 1992, by nearly 68,000 votes. In Michigan, where the race still hadn’t been called by 8 p.m. Wednesday, Trump was ahead by about 12,000 votes.

The Midwest

Clinton led in every major poll in Wisconsin in the final days of the race by an average of 6.2 percentage points, but she lost the vote there by a small margin.

Polling lead

(% points)

Wisconsin

10

TRUMP

1

0

CLINTON

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polls ending on Nov.

Minnesota

10

0

1.4

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Iowa

9.6

10

0

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

19.1

Missouri

10

0

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

19.1

Polling lead

(% points)

Missouri

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Iowa

9.6

10

10

10

10

TRUMP

1

0

0

0

0

CLINTON

1.4

10

10

10

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polls ending on Nov.

19.1

Polling lead

(% points)

Missouri

Wisconsin

Minnesota

Iowa

9.6

10

10

10

10

TRUMP

1

0

0

0

0

CLINTON

1.4

10

10

10

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polls ending on Nov.

Clinton lost in Iowa, a state won by Barack Obama in the previous two presidential elections, but only a few polls in the state showed her with a lead. Clinton was routed in Missouri by double digits — by a wider margin than the strongest of Trump’s poll results in that state.

Large Latino populations didn’t give Clinton electoral edge

Nevada, Arizona and Florida are all states with significant populations of Latinos, a group with which Clinton and Democrats expected to do well. As polls indicated, Clinton was able to hold on to Nevada even as Trump appeared to surge in the final days.

Polling lead

(% points)

Nevada

10

TRUMP

0

CLINTON

2.4

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polls ending on Nov.

Arizona

10

4.3

0

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Florida

10

1.3

0

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polling lead

(% points)

Arizona

Nevada

Florida

10

10

10

4.3

TRUMP

1.3

0

0

0

CLINTON

2.4

10

10

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polls ending on Nov.

Polling lead

(% points)

Arizona

Florida

Nevada

10

10

10

4.3

TRUMP

1.3

0

0

0

CLINTON

2.4

10

10

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polls ending on Nov.

However, Trump held on to his poll lead in Arizona with nearly 98 percent of the vote counted. And Trump eked out a one-point victory in Florida, close to what polls estimated but somewhat surprising given a sharp rise in early voting among Latinos.

The East Coast

Clinton won Maine by a much smaller margin than polls indicated. She won Virginia by a smaller margin than polls showed, but Trump won Georgia and North Carolina with slightly over half of the vote — states Democrats had hoped would be competitive.

Polling lead

(% points)

North Carolina

10

3.8

TRUMP

0

CLINTON

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polls ending on Nov.

Virginia

10

0

4.9

10

30

31

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Oct.

Nov.

New Hampshire

10

0.2

0

10

1

2

3

4

5

7

8

Maine

10

0

3

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Polling lead

(% points)

North Carolina

Virginia

Maine

New Hampshire

10

10

10

10

3.8

TRUMP

0.2

0

0

0

0

3

CLINTON

4.9

10

10

10

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

30

31

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

7

8

Oct.

Nov.

Polls ending on Nov.

Polling lead

(% points)

North Carolina

Virginia

New Hampshire

Maine

10

10

10

10

3.8

TRUMP

0.2

0

0

0

0

3

CLINTON

4.9

10

10

10

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

7

8

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

30

31

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Oct.

Nov.

Polls ending on Nov.

New Hampshire bounced back and forth between the candidates all election night, but at the time of this publishing, it appeared Clinton had a narrow margin of victory, with all votes counted.

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