Election 2020

Exit polls from the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary and other contests

Latest news from March 10 contests | Live election results

Who’s winning each group

Groups that candidates are winning among in-person voters in Michigan by eight or more percentage points

Exit poll results from four states are shown below. Stay tuned for updates as additional interviews are completed and votes are tallied.

Six states cast their votes in the Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday. Michigan, one of the industrial Midwestern states key to Trump’s 2016 victory, offers the largest delegate haul. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) mounted a surprised victory over Hillary Clinton in Michigan’s presidential primary four years ago, and it will be critical again if he wants to halt former vice president Joe Biden’s momentum following Super Tuesday.

Michigan exit poll results did not include interviews with early voters, who were a significant share of the state’s Democratic primary voters, but the results give a snapshot of which day-of voting blocs backed each candidate.

Biden wins big again among black voters across states

Share of support among black voters

Share of support among white voters

Biden was fueled by a strong lead among black voters in Michigan, winning about 2 in 3, a familiar pattern for those watching the vote among this key Democratic constituency in earlier primary states.

According to exit polls, Sanders fell short of his 2016 performance among independents voting in Tuesday’s Michigan Democratic primary. Sanders led Biden by less than 10 percentage points among the roughly 3 in 10 voters that self-identified as independents. Four years ago he beat Clinton by upwards of 40 percentage points in this key group.

Biden also pulled ahead of Sanders among white voters, who made up a majority of those casting ballots in the Michigan Democratic primary. In 2016, Sanders won among white voters by 14 percentage points.

Sanders faring worse among moderates in Michigan, elsewhere

Share of support among independent voters

Moderate voters shifted toward Biden after his South Carolina victory and after several endorsements from candidates that staked out relatively moderate positions, but he solidified his claim to this group Tuesday. In Michigan, Biden won over 6 in 10 moderate voters, up from 52 percent who backed Clinton four years ago. Missouri told a similar story, with Biden winning 70 percent of voters who identify as moderate or conservative, up from 55 percent who supported Clinton in the state’s 2016 primary.

Results show the strengths and weaknesses of Biden and Sanders, according to a survey of voters as they exited randomly selected voting sites.

Each candidate’s seven most and least supportive groups

Based on support of in-person voters in Michigan exit polling

Full results

Exit polling from March 10 contests is below. Candidates who won a demographic group by eight or more percentage points are highlighted.

Additional design and development by Chris Alcantara, Brittany Renee Mayes and Leslie Shapiro. Claudia Deane and Patrick Moynihan contributed polling analysis.

A previous version of the graphics at the top of this page showed median support across exit polls in three states, rather than just Michigan. They have been corrected.

Source

Exit polls are results from a survey of voters as they entered randomly selected voting sites in Michigan, Mississippi and Missouri on primary day, March 10. Michigan exit poll results did not include interviews with early voters, who were a significant share of the state’s Democratic primary voters. Washington results are based on a phone survey of voters, because the state conducts its election by mail. The poll was conducted by Edison Media Research for the National Election Pool, The Washington Post and other media organizations. Results for typical characteristics have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

The questions about union membership and household income were only asked in Michigan and Missouri. The question about the U.S. economic system was only asked in Michigan, Missouri and Washington.

Exit polling was not conducted in Idaho and North Dakota. Explore full results from: Mississippi, Missouri, Michigan and Washington.

Candidate illustrations by Ben Kirchner for The Washington Post.

Originally published March 10, 2020.

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