Since 1996, here is how the league stacks up by the average draft value:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (16.37)
2. Indianapolis Colts (15.27)
3. Green Bay Packers (14.86)
4. Baltimore Ravens (14.71)
5. New England Patriots (14.71)
6. Carolina Panthers (14.31)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (13.75)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (13.39)
9. New York Jets (13.32)
10. San Diego Chargers (13.18)
11. Cincinnati Bengals (13.13)
12. New Orleans Saints (13.05)
13. Seattle Seahawks (12.92)
14. Minnesota Vikings (12.91)
15. Chicago Bears (12.73)
16. Miami Dolphins (12.69)
17. Dallas Cowboys (12.62)
18. New York Giants (12.53)
19. Atlanta Falcons (12.47)
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12.44)
21. Arizona Cardinals (12.3)
22. Denver Broncos (12.1)
23. Houston Texans (11.96)
24. Kansas City Chiefs (11.71)
25. Washington Redskins (11.7)
26. Tennessee Titans (11.55)
27. San Francisco 49ers (11.29)
28. Detroit Lions (11.1)
29. St. Louis Rams (10.85)
30. Buffalo Bills (10.79)
31. Oakland Raiders (10.66)
32. Cleveland Browns (9.55)
The
Surprised? Deflated? Demanding to know where these numbers come from? Average draft position is the average of all first round picks. Draft rank is the rank of this team's average draft value compared to all other teams. Best class is the year that this team had the highest average draft value. The years 2012 through 2015 are excluded because the players in those drafts have not had enough time to accumulate value.
This piece uses a metric called draft value, created by the math gurus at ProFootballReference.com. It weighs factors such as games started, individual stats, team performance and all-pro honors.
[Latest 2016 NFL mock draft: Eagles-Browns trade reshapes the top … again]
It’s a way to compare players at different positions and to show their value to the teams that chose them. (Here's the nitty-gritty.)
This measure isn't perfect. Playoffs aren’t included, for instance, and some skills don't show up in statistics. Longevity counts, so newer players don't have high numbers yet. But if you combine the values of all players a team chooses, you get a snapshot of whether that teams drafts well or … not so much.
[The top 10 QBs for the 2016 NFL draft: Jared Goff ahead of Carson Wentz]
If you want to revel in your team’s brilliance (or wallow in its futility), dive in. Spoiler alert: It isn't pretty for the Browns.
Here is a look at every pick the have made since 1996, along with each player's draft value. Hover over each box for more details.
Average draft value
Everyone gets buyer’s remorse
Even the best-drafting teams make picks they’d like to have back. The Patriots took DB Chris Canty over Ronde Barber in 1997. The Steelers took WR Troy Edwards over Donald Driver in 1999. And of course, there are the 2000 QB picks that will forever haunt the Jets, 49ers, Ravens, Saints and Browns, who chose … drum roll, please … Chad Pennington, Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redmond, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger and Spurgeon Wynn, respectively, while taking a pass on Tom Brady.
[The Rams just traded for the No. 1 pick. Here’s how they should use it.]
Some of the best players that the left on the table:Remorse is based on other available picks at the same position in the same draft. For every pick a team made, we compared the career value of other players of that position who were still available. We used career value to calculate instead of draft value in order to more equally compare players' careers. We ranked each set of "regrets" by largest difference and showed the top four.
Most drafted players don’t measure up
The simple math of the NFL is that a big chunk of players chosen in the draft never make an impact for their new team. Of the more than 5,000 players drafted since 1996, one in six never played for the teams that chose them. However, that also includes players immediately traded before their first seasons (see: Eli Manning and Philip Rivers). The average draft value is 12.7, but more than a third of players scored 4.0 or less, meaning they contributed little or nothing to the team that picked them. With that in mind, we can divide players into some broad categories.
Here's how the picks since 1996 have turned out:
round
Roll over highlighted dots to see each player's value to the team that drafted him:
Here’s a look at that breakdown for all players drafted by every team since 1996.Categories were defined to be relatively equal in size, centered around the NFL average (12.7). Remember, those who never played for the teams that selected them have no draft value number — not even a zero — so you won’t see players such as Eli Manning (career value of 104) or Philip Rivers (121) anywhere.
Draft value distribution of all picks since 1996
37%
Useless
(draft value 0–4)
Ryan Leaf (0)
Ryan Mallett (0)
AJ Jenkins (0)
David Pollack (3)
17
0
11
5
80
35
Each line is a player.
Line height is draft value.
Players are sorted by value.
15.3%
Poor
(5–10)
JaMarcus Russell (6)
Cedric Benson (9)
17
0
11
5
80
35
10.5%
Average
(10–17)
Matt Leinart (12)
Beanie Wells (14)
17
0
11
5
80
35
12.3%
Good
(18–35)
Michael Clayton (22)
Carlos Rogers (23)
C.J. Spiller (32)
17
0
11
5
80
35
6.9%
Great
(36–80)
A.J. Hawk (56)
Dez Bryant (50)
Vonn Miller (58)
17
0
11
5
80
35
1%
Legendary
(More than 80)
Tom Brady, Ray Lewis (160)
Peyton Manning (144)
Marvin Harrison (124)
Brian Urlacher (118)
17
0
11
5
80
35
Both ends of the spectrum
1%
Legendary
(Draft value more than 80)
16.7%
Didn’t play for their draft team
(no score)
Tom Brady, Ray Lewis (160)
Eli Manning and Philip Rivers were part of a draft-day trade in 2004;
Maurice Clarett
Eric Crouch
Peyton Manning (144)
Marvin Harrison (124)
Brian Urlacher (118)
Everbody else
37%
Useless
(draft value of 0–4)
15.3%
Poor
(5–10)
12.3%
Good
(18–35)
6.9%
Great
(36–80)
10.5%
Average
(11–17)
Ryan Leaf (0)
JaMarcus
Russell (6)
Matt Leinart
(12)
Michael
Clayton
(22)
A.J.
Hawk
(56)
Ryan Mallett (0)
AJ Jenkins (0)
Beanie Wells
(14)
Cedric
Benson (9)
David Pollack (3)
Carlos Rogers
(23)
Dez
Bryant
(50)
C.J. Spiller
(32)
Vonn
Miller
(58)
NFL
average
(12.7)
Each line is a player.
Line height is draft value.
Players are sorted by value.
17
0
11
5
80
35
Draft value
37%
Useless
(draft value of 0–4)
15.3%
Poor
(5–10)
12.3%
Good
(18–35)
16.7%
of players drafted,
1996-2015
Didn’t play for
their draft team
6.9%
Great
(36–80)
1%
Legendary
(More than 80)
10.5%
Average
(11–17)
Tom Brady, Ray Lewis (160)
Ryan Leaf (0)
JaMarcus
Russell (6)
Matt Leinart
(12)
Michael
Clayton
(22)
A.J.
Hawk
(56)
Ryan Mallett (0)
Peyton Manning (144)
AJ Jenkins (0)
Eli Manning and Philip Rivers were part of a draft-day trade in 2004;
Maurice Clarett
Eric Crouch
Beanie Wells
(14)
Cedric
Benson (9)
David Pollack (3)
Carlos Rogers
(23)
Dez
Bryant
(50)
Marvin Harrison (124)
Brian Urlacher (118)
C.J. Spiller
(32)
Orlando Pace (103)
Vonn
Miller
(58)
Adrian Peterson (88)
JJ Watt (81)
NFL
average
(12.7)
Each line is a player.
Line height is draft value.
Players are sorted by value.
17
0
11
5
80
35
Draft value
Some positions are better bets
Every team has different needs to try to fill in each year's draft. Here are the positions of players chosen by the since 1996.
Number of players drafted by position and round ProFootballReference lists every player's position, but the site is not always consistent. For example, some players are listed as cornerbacks while others are listed as defensive backs. The Post's John Harris recategorized every pick into more representative positions.
As you might expect, first-round picks tended to be more successful than average. However, if you calculate by position, offensive linemen were generally better than average even when taken late in the draft. The reason is their versatility, according to ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper.
“If you draft a left tackle, you can move him to right tackle and if you have to, you can move him to guard,” Kiper said. “Whereas if you draft a quarterback, he’s either a quarterback or he’s gone.”
Average draft value by position and round
Average value based on round and position
Sure enough, look at the middle-round picks at each position and you see that offensive linemen, especially tackles and centers, generally outperform picks at other positions.
The chart below shows the median value for players at each position since 1996.For each position, quartiles were calculated and plotted as a box-and-whisker plot. It also shows how truly exceptional the best-performing picks were.
Range of values at each position
Offense
The middle 50% of all picks
are within this range
Min.
Med.
C
T. McClure (74)
Max.
O. Pace (103)
T
G
A. Faneca (99)
WR
M. Harrison (124)
RB
L. Tomlinson (121)
QB
T. Brady (160)
TE
T. Gonzalez (75)
Defense
DE
J. Taylor (112)
LB
R. Lewis (160)
DT
K. Williams (95)
S
E. Reed (103)
CB
R. Barber (111)
OLB
C. Greenway (62)
Spec.
P/K
S. Janikowski (38)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Draft value
Offense
The middle 50% of all picks
are within this range
Min.
Med.
Center
Todd McClure (74)
Max.
Orlando Pace (103)
Tackle
Guard
Alan Faneca (99)
Wide receiver
Marvin Harrison (124)
Running back
LaDainian Tomlinson (121)
Quarterback
Tom Brady (160)
Tight end
Tony Gonzalez (75)
Defense
Defensive End
Jason Taylor (112)
Linebacker
Ray Lewis (160)
Defensive tackle
Kevin Williams (95)
Safety
Ed Reed (103)
Cornerback
Ronde Barber (111)
Outside linebacker
Chad Greenway (62)
Spec.
Punter/Kicker
Sebastian Janikowski (38)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Draft value
Offense
The middle 50% of all picks
are within this range
Max.
Min.
Median
Center
Todd McClure (74)
Orlando Pace (103)
Tackle
Guard
Alan Faneca (99)
Wide receiver
Marvin Harrison (124)
Running back
LaDainian Tomlinson (121)
Quarterback
Tom Brady (160)
Tight end
Tony Gonzalez (75)
Defense
Defensive End
Jason Taylor (112)
Linebacker
Ray Lewis (160)
Defensive tackle
Kevin Williams (95)
Safety
Ed Reed (103)
Cornerback
Ronde Barber (111)
Outside linebacker
Chad Greenway (62)
Spec.
Punter/Kicker
Sebastian Janikowski (38)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Draft value
Passing fancy changed the game
Recent history explains the popularity of certain picks. The NFL’s evolution toward more passing and less running began with the introduction of the West Coast offense in the 1980s, and it has reached new extremes with recent rules changes that protect passers and receivers. So it makes sense that high-risk, high-reward quarterbacks and reliable tackles who protect them are taken highest in the draft.
It also make sense that the hottest defensive picks are certain strong, speedy defensive ends and outside linebackers (a.k.a. edge rushers) whose job is to disrupt those pass-happy offenses.
Some of those edge rushers have been draft-day steals, according to Kiper, such as Jared Allen and Elvis Dumervil (fourth round) and Michael Bennett and Pernell McPhee (sixth round).
Highest picks by position on both sides of the ball For the purposes of this chart, edge rushers were split out from defensive ends or outside linebackers and treated as their own position.
Average
first
round
pick
Number of first round
picks since 1996
25
50
10
5
Offense
Quarterbacks
Average pick: 10.1
48 picks
10
Defense
Edge rushers
Average pick: 14.3
78 picks
T
15
OLB
WR
DT
RB
LB
CB
S
20
DE
G
TE
C
25
Number of first round
picks since 1996
25
50
10
Offense
Quarterbacks
Average pick: 10.1
48 picks
T
WR
RB
G
TE
C
Defense
Edge rushers
Average pick: 14.3
78 picks
OLB
DT
LB
CB
S
DE
10
15
20
5
Average first round pick
Offense
Quarterbacks
Average pick: 10.1
48 picks
Number of first round
picks since 1996
T
WR
RB
G
TE
C
25
50
10
Defense
Edge rushers
Average pick: 14.3
78 picks
OLB
DT
LB
CB
S
DE
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
Average first round pick
Sometimes the second (or third or fourth) act is better than the first
Until now, all the numbers we’ve used showed players’ value to the teams that drafted them. But sometimes, a washout with one team becomes a superstar with another. Here are the 10 players whose total career values most drastically eclipsed their values to the teams that drafted them.Players had to have played for the team that drafted them in order to be considered for this chart. Players like Eli Manning and Philip Rivers, both of whom were part of a draft-day trade in 2004, were not included. Sadly, none played for Cleveland.
| Player | Draft team | Draft value | Career value | Other teams |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Draft team | D.V. | C.V. | Other teams |
| Drew BreesQuarterback | San Diego Chargers(2001–05) | 30 | 147 | New Orleans Saints (2006–pres.) |
| La'Roi GloverDefensive tackle | Oakland Raiders(1996) | 0 | 91 | New Orleans Saints (1997–2001)Dallas Cowboys (2002–05)St. Louis Rams (2006–08) |
| Matt HasselbeckQuarterback | Green Bay Packers(1998–2000) | 0 | 88 | Seattle Seahawks (2001–2010)Tennessee Titans (2011–12)Indianapolis Colts (2013–15) |
| James FarriorLinebacker | New York Jets(1997–2001) | 12 | 95 | Pittsburgh Steelers (2002–12) |
| Ahman GreenRunning back | Seattle Seahawks(1998–99) | 1 | 80 | Green Bay Packers (2000–06)Houston Texans (2007–08)Green Bay Packers (2009) |
| Champ BaileyDefensive back | Washington Redskins(1999–2003) | 37 | 112 | Denver Broncos (2004–2013) |
| Justin SmithDefensive end | Cincinnati Bengals(2001–07) | 27 | 98 | San Francisco 49ers (2008–2014) |
| Matt SchaubQuarterback | Atlanta Falcons(2004–06) | 2 | 69 | Houston Texans (2007–2013)Oakland Raiders (2014)Baltimore Ravens (2015)Atlanta Falcons (2016–pres.) |
| Jared AllenDefensive end | Kansas City Chiefs(2004–07) | 32 | 99 | Minnesota Vikings (2008–2013)Chicago Bears (2014–2015)Carolina Panthers (2015) |
| Joe HornWide receiver | Kansas City Chiefs(1996-99) | 5 | 69 | New Orleans Saints (2000–06)Atlanta Falcons (2007) |
This section presents the ten players who gained the most value after leaving their first team. To calculate this, we subtracted career value from draft value. Currently, we are including Philip Rivers and Eli Manning, even though they did not ever play for the teams that drafted them.
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