A tiny minority of people who live in Molenbeek and Schaerbeek have any connection to or interest in terrorist organizations. Yet these neighborhoods, and others like them, have been targets for recruiting efforts by Islamist extremists.

An estimated 470 to 553 foreign fighters in Syria have roots in Belgium, the greatest number per capita of any country in the West. Many of those young jihadists  have ties in Brussels and to Molenbeek or Schaerbeek.

Why are some young people in these neighborhoods so susceptible to jihadist views? Belgian census data from 2011 quantifies what has made this fertile territory for recruiters: high unemployment, educational disparities, involvement in the prison system and isolation from the wider Belgium society.

[ Belgian authorities: Brothers carried out Islamic State suicide attacks]

A woman walks near the house in Molenbeek where fugitive Salah Abdeslam was arrested after a four-month manhunt. (Peter Dejong/AP)

A woman walks near the house in Molenbeek where fugitive Salah Abdeslam was arrested after a four-month manhunt. (Peter Dejong/AP)

Police officers and bomb-squad members take part in an anti-terrorist operation near a tram stop in the Schaerbeek district in Brussels on March 25. (Patrik Stollarz/Getty Images)

Police officers and bomb-squad members take part in an anti-terrorist operation near a tram stop in the Schaerbeek district in Brussels on March 25. (Patrik Stollarz/Getty Images)

How “a breeding ground for violence” arose just outside the city center

Molenbeek and Schaerbeek flank the northwest and northeast sides of the Brussels city center. About 50 years ago, both neighborhoods saw large increases in residents, particularly from Turkish and Moroccan immigrants.

Now, these neighborhoods are more often known for their connection to Islamist extremism. The mayor of Molenbeek herself has called it “a breeding ground for violence.” Salah Abdeslam, a key suspect in the Paris attacks, was arrested in Molenbeek just days before the Brussels bombings.

Airport

Terrorist

attacks

DETAIL

Subway

Molenbeek

3,000 FEET

3

2

1

Salah Abdeslam arrested March 18, 2016.

1

Abdeslam family residence.

2

Family home of Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the Paris mastermind.

3

Airport

Terrorist

attacks

DETAIL

Subway

Rue Piers

3

Molenbeek

2

1

Scheutbos park

2,000 FEET

Family home of Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the Paris mastermind.

Salah Abdeslam arrested March 18.

Abdeslam family residence.

1

2

3

Airport

Terrorist

attacks

DETAIL

Subway

Rue Piers

Family home of Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the Paris mastermind.

Molenbeek

Scheutbos park

Abdeslam family residence.

Salah Abdeslam arrested March 18, 2016.

Boulevard Edmond Machtens

2,000 FEET

The neighborhood of Schaerbeek, about two miles northeast of Molenbeek, has also been the scene of numerous police raids. It was home to the man suspected of making the Brussels bombs.

Airport

Terrorist

attacks

DETAIL

Subway

2

1

Schaerbeek

3

4,000 FEET

Jan. 8: Police announce a fingerprint from Salah Abdeslam was discovered in a search of an apartment on Dec. 10, 2015. Traces of an explosive used in the Paris assaults was also detected.

1

March 22, officials found bombmaking materials in Ibrahim el-Bakraoui’s apartment, the elder brother who perpetrated one of the airport bombs.

2

March 25: A search was conducted by the police.

3

Airport

Terrorist

attacks

DETAIL

1

2,000 FEET

Subway

Rue Gallait

Josephat Park

2

Schaerbeek

3

1

March 22: Officials found bombmaking materials in Ibrahim el-Bakraoui’s apartment, the elder brother who perpetrated one of the airport bombs.

March 25: A search was conducted by the police.

Jan. 8: Police announce a fingerprint from Salah Abdeslam was discovered in a search of an apartment on Dec. 10, 2015. Traces of an explosive used in the Paris assaults was also detected.

2

March 22: Officials found bombmaking materials in Ibrahim el-Bakraoui’s apartment, the elder brother who perpetrated one of the airport explosions

Airport

Terrorist

attacks

DETAIL

Subway

Rue Gallait

Josephat Park

2,000 FEET

Schaerbeek

Avenue Rogier

March 25: A search was conducted by the police.

Jan. 8: Police announce a fingerprint from Salah Abdeslam was discovered in a search of an apartment on Dec. 10, 2015. Traces of an explosive used in the Paris assaults was also detected.

 

What makes these two neighborhoods so different from the city center they border?

High unemployment in both neighborhoods contributes to isolation from the wealthier city center

The youth unemployment rates in Molenbeek and Schaerbeek are among the highest in the city. For people ages 15 to 29, Molenbeek has an unemployment rate of 27 percent. Schaerbeek has a youth unemployment rate of 22 percent, while the Brussels region averages 19 percent.

Unemployment rates

in brussels neighborhoods

Total population

Ages 15-29

30%

27%

Molenbeek

25%

22%

Schaerbeek

20%

19%

Brussels

15%

10%

5%

0

Unemployment rates in brussels neighborhoods

Total population

Ages 15-29

30%

27%

Molenbeek

25%

22%

Schaerbeek

20%

19%

Brussels

15%

10%

5%

0

There are fewer educational opportunities for young people in these boroughs

Many young Belgian jihadists have less education than their peers and are mostly of Moroccan heritage, according to analysis from the Royal Institute for International Relations, or Egmont. The education disparity in Brussels has roots in the socioeconomic disparity between natives and residents with immigrant backgrounds.

Egmont found that a disproportionately large share of students with migration backgrounds in cities like Brussels are placed in “concentration schools,” schools with a high percentage of disadvantaged students.

EDUCATION IN BRUSSELS

Secondary

education

or less

Post-

secondary,

non-tertiary

Bachelor’s

degree or

higher

No diploma

8.8%

68.4%

2.7%

20.1%

Molenbeek

Schaerbeek

6.9

59.9

2.4

30.9

Brussels

5.1

57.2

2.2

35.5

EDUCATION IN BRUSSELS

Secondary

education

or less

Bachelor’s

degree or

higher

Post-secondary,

non-tertiary

No diploma

8.8%

68.4%

2.7%

20.1%

Molenbeek

Schaerbeek

6.9

59.9

2.4

30.9

Brussels

5.1

57.2

2.2

35.5

In Molenbeek, the gap is especially evident. This educational segregation has been tied to both the rising unemployment and poverty rates.

Many of the young people in Molenbeek and Schaerbeek are second or third generation in immigrant families and still face many of the same socioeconomic challenges their parents faced in the 1960s and ‘70s, only now with an increased sense of pessimism.

AGE DISTRIBUTION BY POPULATION

Aged 90+

80-89

70-79

Molenbeek

60-69

Population: 92,661

50-59

40-49

30-39

Age 20-24

20–29

7%

10–19

0–9

0

10%

Percent of population

Aged 90+

80-89

70-79

Schaerbeek

60-69

Population: 127,525

50-59

40-49

30-39

Age 20-24

20–29

7.1%

10–19

0–9

0

10%

Percent of population

Aged 90+

80-89

70-79

Brussels

Population: 1,136,778

60-69

50-59

40-49

30-39

Age 20-24

20–29

10–19

0–9

0

10%

Percent of population

AGE DISTRIBUTION BY POPULATION

Molenbeek

Schaerbeek

Brussels

Aged 90+

Population: 92,661

Population: 127,525

Population: 1,136,778

80-89

70-79

60-69

50-59

40-49

30-39

Age 20-24

Age 20-24

Age 20-24

20–29

7%

7.1%

6.9%

10–19

0–9

0

10%

0

10%

0

10%

Percent of population

Molenbeek and Schaerbeek are home to more than 34,000 young adults between the ages of 20 and 29. An analysis by Egmont found the average age of Belgium jihadists is 20 to 24.

Combined with the perceived and real lack of opportunity in their neighborhoods, young Brussels residents are particularly susceptible to the lure of contributing to a cause “greater” than themselves, as well as the sense of kinship that is built into the terrorist networks. A 2016 Europol report found that younger recruits are more impressionable and can radicalize more quickly.

Recruitment in prisons is a growing concern

A large proportion of jihadist recruits, as high as 80 percent in some estimates, have criminal records varying from petty crimes to more serious offenses, according to Europol. Many of those involved in the Paris and Brussels attacks first did short stints behind bars — it’s where the suspected Paris ringleader, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, met Abdeslam, the alleged Paris attacker who was arrested in Molenbeek this month.

Abdelhamid Abaaoud (AP)

Abdelhamid Abaaoud (AP)

Salah Abdeslam (National Police of France)

Salah Abdeslam (National Police of France)

Radicalization in prisons has become an increasing concern as the Muslim prison population has swelled. Estimates suggest that 20 percent to 30 percent of Belgium’s some 11,000 prisoners are Muslim, even though Muslims make up only about 6 percent of the population. Authorities announced in March that they plan to isolate prisoners who may attempt to radicalize others.

[ How Belgian prisons became a breeding ground for Islamist extremism]

Belgian police stand guard in the Molenbeek-Saint-Jean district in Brussels. (John Thys/Getty Images)

Belgian police stand guard in the Molenbeek-Saint-Jean district in Brussels. (John Thys/Getty Images)

The roots of jihadist recruiting and government response

Despite knowledge of previous attacks plotted out of Molenbeek, Belgium failed to head off the bombings in Brussels. Institutional issues are rampant in the country, where federal power has been increasingly funneled into a complex system of local and communal bodies. Brussels has six police forces, each reporting to a different mayor. Information is not consistently shared between the agencies, making it easy for leads to fall through the cracks.

In Brussels, the socioeconomic gaps have continued to widen. “How many people realize that half of our Moroccan community lives in poverty — compared to 15 percent of the Belgians without migration background. Yet, one cannot detect any sense of urgency among our decision-makers,” Jozef De Witte, former director of the Belgian Equal Opportunity Centre, told the De Morgen newspaper in 2014.

[ Belgium’s big problem with radical Islam]

Molenbeek and Schaerbeek are stark examples of the consequences of economic and social segregation combined with government failure to monitor violent Islamist radicals. The demographics that distinguish these neighborhoods are not isolated to Brussels. Across the world, there are marginalized communities pushed to the fringes, facing diminishing economic opportunity, and young people who are increasingly vulnerable to targeted recruiting by terrorist organizations.

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