9 foreign policy issues the Trump administration will have to face

Areas of control in Syria and Iraq

SYRIA

100 miles

IRAQ

Islamic state

Assad regime

Sunni insurgents

Source: IHS Jane’s

Conflict Monitor

as of Jan 9.

Kurdish groups

Iraqi government

Areas of control in Syria and Iraq

Aleppo

Mosul

Raqqa

IRAQ

SYRIA

100 miles

Damascus

Baghdad

Islamic state

Sparsely

populated

Assad regime

Sunni insurgents

Source: IHS Jane’s

Conflict Monitor

as of Jan 9.

Basra

Kurdish groups

Iraqi government

Manbij

Mosul

Irbil

Aleppo

Raqqa

Idlib

Kirkuk

SYRIA

IRAQ

Hama

Tartus

Homs

Tikrit

Tigris

100 miles

Damascus

Euphrates

Baghdad

Ramadi

Fallujah

Rutbah

Sparsely

populated

Islamic state

Areas of control

in Syria and Iraq

Sparsely

populated

Assad regime

Source: IHS Jane’s Conflict

Monitor as of Jan 9.

Sunni insurgents

Basra

Kurdish groups

Iraqi government

Sparsely

populated

As Donald J. Trump prepares to take office, the Islamic State is on the defensive in three countries and has been all but wiped out in another. Military and diplomatic officials believe that a tactical defeat of the militants, at least in their major strongholds, is only a matter of time. But tens of thousands of fighters remain, and the group is already showing signs of reinventing itself once again as a potent terror movement.

[ From the archives: How terrorism in the West compares to terrorism everywhere else ]

While Trump has promised a more effective campaign against the Islamic State than his predecessor, it’s not yet clear what new steps he might take without creating dangerous side effects, such as a deepening a rift with NATO ally Turkey or incurring greater U.S. or civilian casualties.

— Missy Ryan, national security reporter

Taliban and Islamic State

presence in Afghanistan

Islamic state presence

Taliban control zone

Kabul

AFG.

NANGARHAR

KANDAHAR

200 miles

HELMAND

Source: Institute for the Study of War report,

Nov. 22, 2016

Taliban and Islamic State

presence in Afghanistan

Kunduz

100 miles

Mazar-e-Sharif

Jalalabad

Bagram

Air Base

Kabul

Herat

AFGHANISTAN

NANGARHAR

Islamic state presence

Taliban control zone

Kandahar

KANDAHAR

Source: Institute for the

Study of War report,

Nov. 22, 2016

HELMAND

Before it was President Obama’s “good war,” it was President George W. Bush’s counteroffensive to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. This month, more than 15 years after the arrival of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, the United States’ longest war will fall to Donald Trump, a commander in chief who has barely mentioned his plans for the conflict.

Trump takes charge of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan at a time when a reenergized Taliban has expanded its footprint across the country, the central government is capable of securing only two-thirds of the population, and local forces are suffering what U.S. officials have characterized as “unsustainable” casualties.

Trump’s silence on Afghanistan, as a candidate and as president-elect, raises questions about whether and how the United States will continue its long mission to deter terrorism and build up local forces.

— Missy Ryan, national security reporter

People watch a TV news channel airing an image of North Korea's ballistic missile launch at a Seoul railway station on June 23. (Ahn Young-joon/AP)

North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test in September, and its leader, Kim Jong Un, said on Jan. 1 that his country was in the “last stage” of preparations to test-fire a long-range missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead to the continental United States. In response, President-elect Donald Trump tweeted that the missile test “won’t happen,” and he blamed China for refusing to help rein in Pyongyang.

[ Eight countries. 2,056 nuclear tests. 71 years. ]

Six-party denuclearization talks on North Korea, including regional parties and the United States,  began in 2003 but were suspended over verification issues in 2008. The United States has said it will not resume them until Pyongyang abandons its nuclear weapons program, and new U.S.-orchestrated international sanctions were imposed on North Korea late last year. Trump — who has alternately called Kim a “maniac” and said he would meet with him for “a hamburger” — could be faced with a crisis early in his administration.

— Karen DeYoung, senior national security correspondent

Kiev

UKRAINE

Donetsk

Odessa

200 miles

CRIMEA

Annexed

by Russia

Occupied by

separatists

Source: Ukraine Ministry of Defense

Kiev

Lviv

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

Luhansk

Dnipropetrovsk

Donetsk

100 miles

Occupied by

separatists

Odessa

Source: Ukraine Ministry

of Defense

Annexed

by Russia

CRIMEA

Sevastopol

With the Russian-backed separatist conflict still simmering in eastern Ukraine, the pro-West government in Kiev fears that a Donald Trump administration will use it as a bargaining tool to achieve the improvement of relations with Moscow the president-elect has said he seeks. While his campaign and post-election comments have been unclear, Trump has also indicated he is less concerned with forcing Russia to give up the Ukranian Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which it invaded and annexed in 2014, than the Obama administration and U.S. allies in Europe.

[ News, opinions and analysis about the situation in Crimea and beyond ]

Trump has questioned sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine as harmful to U.S. businesses.  While U.S. and European sanctions have been reauthorized, at least through the first half of 2017, a weakening of European resolve is likely if the new administration indicates a reluctance to keep them in force. Trump’s first fight over Ukraine, however, is more likely to come in the U.S. Congress, where there is strong bilateral opposition to Russia’s actions there.

— Karen DeYoung, senior national security correspondent

Pedestrians walk past a large screen showing financial data in Shanghai on Jan. 4. (Qilai Shen/Bloomberg)

Donald Trump faces a rising regional power increasingly willing to challenge U.S. military and economic power in the Pacific region. Trump talked tough on China during his presidential run, blaming the country for the loss of American jobs and lobbing accusations of unfair currency manipulation or hostile trade practices. But it was still a shock when Trump broke with decades of precedent by speaking directly with the leader of Taiwan, which China considers a province.

The call last month threatened to reopen a largely dormant ideological fight over self-determination and democracy in the Communist regime. Some in the Chinese leadership who had been confident that they understood Trump’s business-minded approach questioned whether they were dealing with an old-school Republican ideologue. He has hired a stable of trade hawks, suggesting he may be itching for a trade fight. But Trump’s pick for ambassador to Beijing, Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, was seen as an olive branch.

— Anne Gearan, diplomatic correspondent

NATO member countries

NATO countries not shown: Iceland,

United States and Canada

Source: European Leadership Network

NORWAY

EST.

RUSSIA

LAT.

DEN.

LITH.

NETH.

U.K.

POL.

GER.

BELG.

UKRAINE

CZECH

LUX.

SLVK.

FRANCE

HUN.

SLOV.

ROM.

CRO.

POR.

BUL.

ITALY

ALB.

TURKEY

GREECE

NATO member countries

NATO countries not shown: Iceland, United States and Canada

Source: European Leadership Network

FINLAND

NORWAY

EST.

SWEDEN

North

Sea

LAT.

RUSSIA

DEN.

IRELAND

LITH.

UNITED

KINGDOM

RUS.

BELARUS

NETH.

POLAND

GERMANY

BELG.

Atlantic

Ocean

LUX.

UKRAINE

CZECH REP.

SLVK.

MOL.

AUS.

FRANCE

SWITZ.

HUN.

SLOV.

ROMANIA

Crimea

(disputed)

PORTUGAL

BOS.

SER.

BUL.

ITALY

SPAIN

KOS.

MONT.

MAC.

ALB.

TURKEY

Med. Sea

GREECE

MOROCCO

ALGERIA

TUNISIA

NATO member countries

NATO countries not shown: Iceland,

United States and Canada

FINLAND

Source: European

Leadership Network

NORWAY

SWEDEN

North

Sea

EST.

RUSSIA

LAT.

DENMARK

LITH.

IRELAND

UNITED

KINGDOM

RUS.

BELARUS

NETH.

POLAND

GERMANY

BELG.

Atlantic

Ocean

LUX.

UKRAINE

CZECH REP.

SLOVAKIA

FRANCE

MOL.

AUS.

SWITZ.

HUNGARY

SLOV.

Crimea

ROMANIA

(disputed)

GEORGIA

AZER.

BOS.

SER.

ARM.

PORTUGAL

BUL.

KOS.

ITALY

MONT.

SPAIN

MAC.

IRAN

ALB.

TURKEY

Mediterranean Sea

GREECE

SYRIA

IRAQ

MOROCCO

ALGERIA

TUNISIA

The U.S.-European alliance — for decades the cornerstone of global security — has long rested on shared values and interests. But with Donald Trump’s ascendance in Washington, many in Europe fear a values gap as wide as the Atlantic.

[ Europe’s many alliances, reimagined as a metro system ]

Trump’s statements on climate change, torture, Muslim immigration, the rule of law, democracy promotion, press freedom, nuclear proliferation and a whole host of other issues run counter to beliefs that many European leaders see as core to Western identity.

Since Trump’s election, European officials have tried to paper over those differences, pointing to interests that both sides of the transatlantic partnership continue to share. But that may not be enough, and the bonds linking Europe to the United States are sure to be tested.

Nonetheless, Europe’s willingness to challenge Trump may be limited by the continent’s own struggles. Europe is divided internally in a way not seen since the Berlin Wall came down. And leaders are acutely aware that the populist wave that brought Trump to power is crashing down on their shores, as well.

— Griff Witte, London bureau chief

U.S. Secretary of State John F. Kerry holds a negotiation meeting with Iran's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, over Iran's nuclear program in Lausanne, Switzerland, in 2015. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)

The Iran nuclear deal reached in 2015 will come under intense strain during the Donald Trump presidency. Trump has at times said he wants to “rip it up,” which would be highly unpopular with the European allies who also negotiated the deal. Other times, Trump has said he would try to renegotiate, which the Iranians have shown no inclination to do.

[ Iran nuclear deal is in the crosshairs and may not survive a Trump administration ]

At the very least, the Trump administration is likely to be more confrontational with the Islamic republic than the Obama administration, whose priority was keeping the agreement alive. Trump has been urged to adopt a zero tolerance policy toward even temporary breaches of agreed-upon limits on heavy water or uranium.

Up to now, the United States has not made a big deal of violations when they were deemed minor, accidental and quickly rectified. Congress could pass new sanctions on non-nuclear issues such as human rights abuses, missile testing and terrorism support. Tehran will make the case that the United States, not Iran, is to blame if the nuclear deal collapses.

[ From the archives: 'Iran deal: What they said. What they got.' ]

The showdown could escalate and impact efforts to end the war against the Islamic State in Syria, where Russia and Iran support the government, and create fissures with allies who think engagement with Iran will help undercut radical elements in Iran.

— Carol Morello, diplomatic correspondent

The U.S. Embassy building in Tel Aviv on Dec. 28. (Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images)

Donald Trump has promised big changes in U.S. policy toward Israel and the Palestinians. Symbolizing the shift, Trump has vowed to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv, where every other nation has its mission, to Jerusalem, where Israeli government offices are situated. His predecessors made the same pledge while campaigning, but after coming to office, advisers talked them out of it.

A move would likely cause diplomatic fallout across the Middle East and possibly violence. It could effectively kill chances for the United States to claim it is an “honest broker” in any future negotiations because it would be acknowledging all of Jerusalem is Israeli, and the Palestinians can forget about claiming part of the city as their capital, too. Congress is also exerting pressure, with some members saying they will propose freezing funds to the United Nations unless the Security Council repeals a December resolution condemning settlements.

Every administration since the 1967 Israeli-Arab war has considered settlements an obstacle to peace. Trump has designated an ambassador, David Friedman, who supports Israel’s right to build settlements and annex some of the West Bank.

— Carol Morello, diplomatic correspondent

UNITED STATES

Calif.

Segments of border

with some kind of fence

San Diego

N.M.

Ariz.

Tijuana

Nogales

El Paso

Segments of border

with no fence

Ciudad

Juarez

Nogales

Texas

Del Rio

Laredo

100 miles

Eagle Pass

MEXICO

Brownsville

McAllen

Reynosa

Matamoros

Segments of border

with some kind of fence

Segments

with no fence

U.S.

CA

AZ

S.Diego

NM

Nogales

TX

El Paso

Tijuana

C. Juarez

Del Rio

Laredo

Brownsville

MEXICO

100 miles

Segments of border

with no fence

Segments of border

with some kind of fence

Calif.

UNITED STATES

Ariz.

San Diego

N.M.

Nogales

El Paso

Texas

Del Rio

Eagle Pass

Laredo

MEXICO

McAllen

100 miles

Brownsville

Donald Trump will inherit a U.S.-Mexico relationship entirely of his own creation. While there has always been wariness in how Mexicans view their northern neighbor, the countless strands that tie together these countries — billions in trade, tourists flying back and forth, the fight against drug lords — have made for a high-functioning relationship.

[ Concrete divisions: A new age of walls ]

Trump could change all that. From his early campaign insults, calling Mexican immigrants rapists and criminals, to his threats to wall off the border, deport millions, and punish U.S. exporters who invest in Mexico, Trump has put Mexico on a state of red alert. No one in Mexico knows which policies Trump will pursue, but the machinery of self-defense is already turning. A new foreign minister has taken over to handle the relationship with Trump.

President Enrique Peña Nieto and other top officials regularly tout Mexico’s importance to the United States, promoting the message that Trump’s proposals will hurt the United States. While Mexico says that it’s ready to deal with the deal-maker, the current running under everything here is plain old fear.  

— Joshua Partlow, Mexico City bureau chief