Montgomery County’s first-day enrollment numbers are on track for a record high, with school leaders counting 154,417 students Monday across the fast-growing system’s 202 schools.

Bruce Crispell, director of long-range planning for Montgomery schools, said he expects that figure to inch down slightly before student rolls settle out in September. Typically, some students expected to return do not come back, he said.

“I think it’s a good indication that we will come in close to what the forecast was, at just over 154,000,” he said.

Before the start of the school year, Crispell projected 154,153 students would attend classes in 2014-2015 -- an increase of 2,864 from last year and the largest one-year jump in more than a decade.

The state asks for an official count Sept. 30.

“It tells me that when we do get to Sept. 30, we’re going to be close,” Crispell said.

Crispell’s forecast was based on trends in birth rates, family migration into Montgomery and more populated grades of younger students aging up through the school system.