Former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg consistently credited his administration’s controversial stop-and-frisk program as essential to cutting crime, but declines in felonies both before and after his expansion of the program indicate no consistent correlation between the two.
A Washington Post analysis of crime patterns and other academic research found that major felonies declined during Bloomberg’s three terms from 2002 through 2013, but the reduction did not correspond to the increase in stops by police.
Crime has continued to fall since a federal judge deemed the practice an unconstitutional violation of civil rights in 2013. The disconnect suggests that an increase or decrease in crime happened largely for reasons independent of the aggressive expansion of the policy.
Annual number of stop-and-frisk
stops and major crimes
in New York City, 2002–2018
After years of decline, crime rates began to tick up
again in 2011, even as stop-and-frisk stops peaked.
Stop-and-frisk stops
750K
Stops peaked
at 685,724
in 2011
500K
250K
97K
11K
0
2002
2018
Major crimes
180K
Year stops
peaked
155K
120K
96K
60K
0
2002
2018
Note: “Major crimes” includes murder, non-
negligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, felony
assault, burglary, grand larceny and auto theft.
380
Annual number of stop-and-frisk stops and
major crimes in New York City, 2002–2018
After years of decline, crime rates began to tick up again in 2011,
even as stop-and-frisk stops peaked.
Stop-and-frisk stops
750K
Stops peaked
at 685,724
in 2011
500K
250K
97K
11K
0
2002
2018
Major crimes
180K
Crimes increased
to 107K in 2011
155K
120K
96K
60K
0
2002
2018
Note: “Major crimes” includes murder,
non-negligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, felony assault,
burglary, grand larceny and auto theft.
Annual number of stop-and-frisk stops and major crimes
in New York City, 2002–2018
After years of decline, crime rates began to tick up again in 2011, even as stop-and-frisk
stops peaked.
Stop-and-frisk stops
Major crimes
750K
180K
155K
Crimes increased
to 107K in 2011
Stops peaked
at 685,724
in 2011
500K
120K
96K
250K
60K
97K
11K
0
0
2002
2018
2002
2018
Note: “Major crimes” includes murder, non-negligent manslaughter, rape, robbery,
felony assault, burglary, grand larceny and auto theft.
Annual number of stop-and-frisk stops and major crimes
in New York City, 2002–2018
After years of decline, crime rates began to tick up again in 2011, even as stop-and-frisk stops peaked.
Stop-and-frisk stops
Major crimes
750K
180K
155K
Crimes increased
to 107K in 2011
Stops peaked at
685,724 in 2011
500K
120K
96K
250K
60K
97K
11K
0
0
2002
2005
2010
2015
2018
2002
2005
2010
2015
2018
Note: “Major crimes” includes murder, non-negligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary,
grand larceny and auto theft.
Annual number of stop-and-frisk stops and major crimes in New York City, 2002–2018
After years of decline, crime rates began to tick up again in 2011, even as stop-and-frisk stops peaked.
Stop-and-frisk stops
Major crimes
750K
180K
155K
Crimes increased
to 107K in 2011
Stops peaked at
685,724 in 2011
500K
120K
96K
250K
60K
97K
11K
0
0
2002
2005
2010
2015
2018
2002
2005
2010
2015
2018
Note: “Major crimes” includes murder, non-negligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny and auto theft.
As Super Tuesday approaches, Bloomberg faces continued scrutiny over the New York Police Department policy that was emphasized by previous Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and expanded enormously under Bloomberg. The number of stops went down dramatically after the police behavior toward African Americans and Hispanics was ruled unconstitutional, and fell even further under Mayor Bill de Blasio.
A Post analysis found that major felonies went down by a third while stop and frisks increased more than 600 percent from 2002 through 2011. From 2011 through 2018, stops went down 98 percent while felonies declined an additional 12 percent.
Some felonies seemed to drop off more precipitously after the program was cut back. Others increased just as the stop and frisk was more active.
Robberies, for example, went down until 2009, but then increased in 2010 and 2011 when the most stop and frisks were done. When the program was cut back, the number of robberies began dropping again.
Burglaries followed a similar trend. They increased in 2011 but began dropping steadily again when the program was reduced drastically in 2013. Car thefts declined consistently during the program and then continued dropping after it was reduced.
The number of grand larcenies began climbing when the most stop and frisks were conducted in 2011 and continued going up as the number of stop and frisks went down. They have since flattened out. Felony assaults began rising in 2009 and also flattened out after the program was reduced. The number of rapes has increased since 2009 – during the height of the program and the reduction.
Change in major felonies in
New York City before and after
stop-and-frisk
Auto theft
Burglary
2002–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
–40%
–42%
–42%
–65%
Murder
Robbery
’02–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
–12%
–28%
–32%
–38%
Felony assault
Grand larceny
2002–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
+12%
+12%
–16%
–13%
Rape
’02–’11
’11–’18
+24%
–34%
Note: Murder includes non-negligent manslaughter
Change in major felonies in New York City
before and after peak of stop-and-frisk
Auto theft
Burglary
2002–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
–40%
–42%
–42%
–65%
Murder
Robbery
’02–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
–12%
–28%
–32%
–38%
Felony assault
Grand larceny
2002–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
+12%
+12%
–16%
–13%
Rape
’02–’11
’11–’18
+24%
–34%
Note: Murder includes non-negligent manslaughter
Change in major felonies in New York City before and after
peak of stop-and-frisk
Auto theft
Burglary
Robbery
Murder
2002–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
–12%
–28%
–32%
–40%
–42%
–42%
–38%
–65%
Felony assault
Rape
Grand larceny
2002–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
+24%
+12%
+12%
–16%
–13%
–34%
Note: Murder includes non-negligent manslaughter
Change in major felonies in New York City before and after
peak of stop-and-frisk
Auto theft
Burglary
Robbery
Murder
2002–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
–12%
–28%
–32%
–40%
–42%
–42%
–38%
–65%
Felony assault
Rape
Grand larceny
2002–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
+24%
+12%
+12%
–16%
–13%
–34%
Note: Murder includes non-negligent manslaughter
Change in major felonies in New York City before and after peak of stop-and-frisk
Auto theft
Burglary
Robbery
Murder
2002–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
–12%
–28%
–32%
–40%
–42%
–42%
–38%
–65%
Felony assault
Rape
Grand larceny
2002–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
’02–’11
’11–’18
+24%
+12%
+12%
–16%
–13%
–34%
Note: Murder includes non-negligent manslaughter
The correlation between a reduction in murder rates and stop-and-frisk is weak, despite the fact that Bloomberg often cited the drop in murders as evidence that stop-and-frisk worked. In a 2019 event in Annapolis, he said, “the result of that was, over the years, the murder rate in New York City went from 650 a year to 300 a year when I left.”
The rate went down from the year after Bloomberg took office until 2007, but as the number of stop and frisks continued to rise dramatically, the number of murders ticked back up. It was only with the very steep decline in police stops in 2012 and 2013 that the number of murders dropped to the 300s. The number of murders dropped fastest after the cutback in stop-and-frisks. It continued to go down into the 200s as stop-and-frisk was relatively tiny under de Blasio.
Criminologists say improved police work, rather than intensified stop and frisks, have helped lower crime nationwide. Overall, they say explanations for the trend are hard to pinpoint and could include a variety of things. Economic factors such as better pay and lower unemployment may have a role, but crime continued to decline during the Great Recession.
In 2012, New York police released statistics showing that African Americans and Hispanics made up roughly 95 percent of shooting victims and suspects, but others protested that the relatively small number of perpetrators was not justification for treating all men of color as suspects at all times.
In 2013, a federal court ruled police violated civil rights by stopping and searching African Americans and Hispanics without sufficient grounds to think they were involved in a crime. The judge did not address whether stop-and-frisk was effective in stopping crime. Even after the ruling, Bloomberg maintained that the program cut crime by targeting the young black and Hispanic men whom he said perpetrate the vast majority of offenses.
“Ninety-five percent of murders, murderers and murder victims, fit one M.O. You can just take a description, Xerox it, and pass it out to all the cops," Bloomberg said at the Aspen Institute in 2015. "They are male minorities, 16 to 25.”
In November, Bloomberg apologized shortly before announcing his presidency, saying he had come to realize the harm the program did.
[Further analysis of long-term trends in New York City crime in relation to stop-and-frisk]
By comparing exact locations and timing of stop-and-frisk events with reports of crime in that area at that time, a team of criminologists at George Mason University led by professor David Weisburd tested the effectiveness of the program in a very detailed scale. They found that the programs tightly focused in the most high-crime areas had an effect on lowering crime, but the size of the decrease attributable to stop and frisk was very small. They said the improvements were offset by the high cost of such intense work and the negative feelings toward police generated in the community.
A subsequent study by criminologists from the University of Pennsylvania, Columbia Law School and New York University found that when police had probable cause that someone was involved in a crime, the stops helped reduce crime. But the majority of stops were not supported by probable cause, and those stops “had no measurable effect on crime.”
Sources: NYPD stop-and-frisk data, NYCLU data on stop-and-frisk, NYPD crime incident data, Center for Constitutional Rights
