Majority of women ages 15 to 44 would face new post-Roe abortion limits

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If the Supreme Court overturns the nearly 50-year-old federal legal protection for abortion in Roe v. Wade, 52 percent of women of childbearing age in the United States would live in states where their right to the procedure is imperiled.

“Trigger” laws in 13 states would immediately outlaw abortion in nearly all cases; some make no exception for rape or incest. In addition, 14 other states appear ready to enact bans and more restrictive laws.

How state laws would change for 64.4M women ages 15 to 44 if Roe v. Wade is overturned

“Trigger”

laws take

effect

Other

restrictions

take effect*

Broad access

to abortion

for now

21%

31%

48%

13.7M

women

19.8M

women

30.8M

women

*Includes states with near-total abortion bans, six-week bans, 15-week bans and bans passed before Roe took effect

Source: Guttmacher Institute, Post research, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

How state laws would change for 64.4M women ages 15 to 44 if Roe v. Wade is overturned

“Trigger” laws

ban most

abortions

Other

restrictions

take effect*

Broad access

to abortion

for now

21%

31%

48%

13.7M

women

19.8M

women

30.8M

women

*Includes states with near-total abortion bans, six-week bans, 15-week bans and bans passed before Roe took effect

Source: Guttmacher Institute, Post research, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

How state laws would change for 64.4M women ages 15 to 44 if Roe v. Wade is overturned

“Trigger” laws

immediately ban

most abortions

Other restrictive

laws set to

take effect*

Broad access

to abortion

for now

21%

31%

48%

13.7M women

19.8M women

30.8M women

*Includes states with near-total abortion bans, six-week bans, 15-week bans and bans passed before Roe took effect

Source: Guttmacher Institute, Post research, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

To visualize the scope of these laws, let’s look at the roughly 862,000 abortions in 2017, the most recent year of data provided by the nonprofit Guttmacher Institute, which researches and supports reproductive rights.

Twelve percent took place in states that have trigger bans, laws passed that would immediately outlaw most abortions in the first and second trimesters if Roe were overturned. (Those states are already some of the most restrictive.) And 27 percent occurred in states that plan to enact other new restrictions.

Q&A: What does the draft opinion mean for Roe?

Where abortions occurred in 2017, by post-Roe status

Number of abortions in the U.S. in 2017, by whether they would be protected or restricted if the Supreme Court were to strike down Roe v. Wade

“Trigger” laws

13 states, 102K abortions

Other restrictions*

14 states, 235.9K abortions

Broad access

23 states + D.C., 524.5K abortions

Tex.

Fla.

N.C.

Ohio

AZ

55.4K

71.0K

29.5K

20.6K

IN

AL

Tenn.

Mich.

SC

12.1K

KS

26.6K

Ga.

KY

MS

36.3K

IA

LA

WI

UT

Calif.

Ill.

Md.

132.7K

42.1K

29.8K

Pa.

Mass.

31.3K

18.6K

N.Y.

N.J.

WA

VA

MN

NV

105.4K

48.1K

OR

DC

CO

CT

*Includes states with near-total abortion bans, six-week bans, 15-week bans and bans passed before Roe took effect

Source: Guttmacher Institute, Post research

Number of abortions in the U.S. in 2017, by whether they would be protected or restricted if the Supreme Court were to strike down Roe v. Wade

“Trigger” laws

13 states, 102K abortions

Other restrictions*

14 states, 235.9K abortions

Broad access for now

23 states + D.C., 524.5K abortions

Tex.

Fla.

N.C.

Ohio

AZ

55.4K

71.0K

29.5K

20.6K

IN

AL

Mich.

Tenn.

SC

26.6K

KS

12.1K

Ga.

KY

MS

36.3K

LA

IA

WI

UT

Calif.

Ill.

Md.

132.7K

42.1K

29.8K

Pa.

Mass.

31.3K

18.6K

N.Y.

N.J.

Wash.

Va.

MN

NV

105.4K

48.1K

17.7K

17.2K

OR

NH

DC

HI

Colo.

Conn.

ME

NM

RI

12.4K

11.9K

VT

DE

*Includes states with near-total abortion bans, six-week bans, 15-week bans and bans passed before Roe took effect

Source: Guttmacher Institute, Post research

Number of abortions in the U.S. in 2017, by whether they would be protected or restricted if the Supreme Court were to strike down Roe v. Wade

“Trigger” laws immediately

ban most abortions

Broad access to abortion for now

23 states and D.C., 524.5K abortions

13 states, 102K abortions

Tex.

Tenn.

OK

MO

Calif.

Ill.

Pa.

55.4K abortions

12.1K

132.7K

42.1K

31.3K

AR

KY

MS

La.

9.9K

UT

Other restrictive laws to take effect*

14 states, 235.9K abortions

Md.

Mass.

29.8K

18.6K

Fla.

N.C.

Mich.

71.0K

29.5K

26.6K

N.Y.

N.J.

105.4K

48.1K

Wash.

Minn.

17.7K

10.7K

Nev.

Ore.

Ohio

Ind.

Kan.

9.7K

9.6K

Va.

20.6K

7.7K

6.8K

17.2K

Wis.

D.C.

HI

6.4K

Ga.

Colo.

Conn.

5.6K

36.3K

Ala.

IA

NH

12.4K

11.9K

6.1K

Ariz.

NM

DE

12.4K

NE

S.C.

RI

MT

5.1K

WV

*Includes states with near-total abortion bans, six-week bans, 15-week bans and bans passed before Roe took effect

Source: Guttmacher Institute, Post research

Number of abortions in the U.S. in 2017, by whether they would be protected or restricted if the Supreme Court were to strike down Roe v. Wade

“Trigger” laws immediately ban most abortions

Broad access to abortion for now

13 states, 102K abortions

23 states and D.C., 524.5K abortions

Calif.

Ill.

Pa.

Tex.

Tenn.

OK

MO

132.7K

42.1K

31.3K

55.4K abortions

12.1K

AR

MS

KY

La.

ID

ND

UT

9.9K

SD

WY

Other restrictive laws set to take effect*

14 states, 235.9K abortions

Md.

Mass.

Fla.

N.C.

Mich.

29.8K

18.6K

71.0K

29.5K

26.6K

N.Y.

N.J.

105.4K

48.1K

Wash.

Minn.

17.7K

10.7K

Nev.

Ore.

Ohio

Ind.

Kan.

9.7K

9.6K

Va.

20.6K

7.7K

6.8K

17.2K

Wis.

HI

D.C.

6.4K

Ga.

Colo.

Conn.

5.6K

36.3K

NH

ME

Ala.

IA

12.4K

11.9K

Ariz.

NM

6.1K

DE

VT

12.4K

NE

S.C.

RI

MT

AK

5.1K

WV

*Includes states with near-total abortion bans, six-week bans, 15-week bans and bans passed before Roe took effect

Source: Guttmacher Institute, Post research

Why gestational age limits matter

Roe and a 1992 related decision, Planned Parenthood v. Casey, guaranteed access to abortion “without undue burden” until the date the fetus is viable, meaning able to live outside the womb. That date varies by pregnancy but is generally considered to be around 23 to 24 weeks.

The Mississippi case that is before the Supreme Court now would set the standard at 15 weeks, and a Texas law that is winding through the courts has barred abortions after six weeks, which is before many people know they are pregnant. Both states also have trigger laws in place in case the court rules in Mississippi’s favor; a leaked draft shows the court would uphold the state’s law and essentially repeal the right to abortion that is now the law of the land.

Here is how these laws governing gestational age would have affected the legality of abortions that occurred in four states in 2019.

Number of abortions that would be illegal in select areas under post-Roe rules

Number of abortions in 2019, by week of gestation

Number of abortions that would be banned post Roe

Pregnancies are generally considered to be viable between 23 and 24 weeks.

FIRST TRIMESTER

SECOND TRIMESTER

Up to 6

weeks

7-

9

10-

13

14-

15

16-

17

18-

20

Past

20

OUTLAWS ALL ABORTIONS

Mississippi

3,193 total abortions in 2019

1,117

1,421

468

171

16

0

0

If Roe falls, the state’s court-enjoined 15-week ban would give way to a total abortion ban there.

Texas

57,275 total

22,356

22,721

8,232

1,870

957

838

301

The court allowed Texas’s six-week ban to go into effect, making most abortions illegal. Its “trigger” law would ban the rest if Roe is struck down.

OUTLAWS ABORTIONS AFTER 15 WEEKS

Florida

71,914

52,850

11,641

4,843

973

691

699

217

A Florida 15-week ban is set to take effect in July. Most abortions would still be allowed under that scenario.

MAINTAINS ABORTION PROTECTIONS

New York City

49,784

22,364

17,579

5,579

1,335

897

934

1,096

Minnesota

9,799

3,597

3,845

1,381

379

194

216

187

The right to an abortion would be preserved in Minnesota.

Source: Abortions reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Number of abortions that would be illegal in select areas under post-Roe rules

Number of abortions in 2019, by week of gestation

Number of abortions that would be banned post Roe

Pregnancies are generally considered to be viable between 23 and 24 weeks.

FIRST TRIMESTER

SECOND TRIMESTER

Up to 6

weeks

7-

9

10-

13

14-

15

16-

17

18-

20

Past

20

OUTLAWS ALL ABORTIONS

Mississippi

1,117

1,421

468

171

16

0

0

3,193 total

abortions

in 2019

If Roe falls, the state’s court-enjoined 15-week ban would give way to a total abortion ban there.

Texas

22,356

22,721

8,232

1,870

957

838

301

57,275

The court allowed Texas’s six-week ban to go into effect, making most abortions illegal. Its “trigger” law would ban the rest if Roe is struck down.

OUTLAWS ABORTIONS AFTER 15 WEEKS

Florida

71,914

52,850

11,641

4,843

973

691

699

217

A Florida 15-week ban is set to take effect in July. Most abortions would still be allowed under that scenario.

MAINTAINS ABORTION PROTECTIONS

New York

City

49,784

22,364

17,579

5,579

1,335

897

934

1,096

Minnesota

187

9,799

3,597

3,845

1,381

379

194

216

The right to an abortion would be preserved in Minnesota.

Source: Abortions reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Number of abortions that would be illegal in select areas

under post-Roe rules

Number of abortions in 2019, by week of gestation

Number of abortions that would be banned post Roe

Pregnancies are generally considered to be viable between 23 and 24 weeks.

FIRST TRIMESTER

SECOND TRIMESTER

Up to 6 weeks

7-9

10-13

14-15

16-17

18-20

Past 20 weeks

OUTLAWS ALL ABORTIONS

Mississippi

1,117

1,421

468

171

16

0

0

3,193 total

abortions

in 2019

If Roe falls, the state’s court-enjoined 15-week ban would give way to a total abortion ban there.

Texas

301

57,275

22,356

22,721

8,232

1,870

957

838

The court allowed Texas’s six-week ban to go into effect, making most abortions illegal. Its “trigger” law would ban the rest if Roe is struck down.

OUTLAWS ABORTIONS AFTER 15 WEEKS

Florida

71,914

52,850

11,641

4,843

973

691

699

217

A Florida 15-week ban is set to take effect in July. Most abortions would still be allowed under that scenario.

MAINTAINS ABORTION PROTECTIONS

New York City

22,364

17,579

5,579

1,335

897

934

49,784

1,096

Minnesota

3,597

3,845

1,381

379

194

216

187

9,799

The right to an abortion would be preserved in Minnesota.

Source: Abortions reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

That doesn’t mean these abortions wouldn’t have occurred, only that pregnant people would have needed to travel to one of the 23 states (plus D.C.) that have laws protecting the right to obtain one legally.

Post-Roe, finding care will be much harder for many pregnant people.

States that protect abortion rights most broadly are concentrated on the coasts. Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, as well as Minnesota, Montana and Illinois, also have fewer restrictions on abortions. New, severe restrictions or bans would cover enormous swaths of the country and put many pregnant people hundreds of miles from an abortion provider.

How Mississippi ended up with one abortion clinic and why it matters

Declining U.S. rates

The number of abortions per capita climbed for a few years after Roe was decided in 1973, peaking in 1980 before a steady decline.

U.S. abortion rate

30

HIGHEST RATE, 1980

25 per 1,000 women age 15-44

20

13

14

10

0

1972

586,760

total abortions

2017

About

860,000

Sources: Abortions reported by state to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to 1997; CDC and Guttmacher Institute, 2000 to 2017

U.S. abortion rate

30

HIGHEST RATE, 1980

25 per 1,000 women age 15-44

20

13

14

10

0

1972

586,760

total abortions

2017

About

860,000

Sources: Abortions reported by state to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to 1997; CDC and Guttmacher Institute, 2000 to 2017

U.S. abortion rate

30

HIGHEST RATE, 1980

25 per 1,000 women age 15-44

20

13

14

10

0

1972

586,760

total abortions

2017

About

860,000

Sources: Abortions reported by state to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to 1997; CDC and

Guttmacher Institute, 2000 to 2017

Abortion rates vary greatly across the country, in part because of access to clinics and other barriers erected by state legislatures.

Abortion tends to be rarer in states with “trigger” laws

Number of abortions in 2017 per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44

“Trigger” laws immediately ban most abortions

Wyo.

1.3

S.D.

3.1

Idaho

3.7

Ky.

3.8

Mo.

4.0

Utah

4.3

Miss.

4.4

Ark.

5.5

Okla.

6.2

N.D.

7.8

Tenn.

9.1

Tex.

9.2

La.

10.7

Other restrictive laws set to take effect*

W.Va.

4.5

S.C.

5.2

Neb.

5.4

Wis.

5.8

Ind.

5.9

Iowa

6.3

Ala.

6.4

Ariz.

8.8

Ohio

9.3

Kan.

12.1

Mich.

14.2

N.C.

14.3

Ga.

16.6

Fla.

18.2

Broad access to abortion for now

Mont.

8.1

Alaska

8.7

Maine

8.7

N.H.

9.0

Minn.

9.9

Va.

10.2

Colo.

10.5

Del.

10.5

Vt.

11.3

N.M.

11.6

Ore.

11.6

Wash.

11.7

Hawaii

12.2

Pa.

13.1

Mass.

13.3

Nev.

16.0

Calif.

16.5

R.I.

16.8

Ill.

16.8

Conn.

17.8

Md.

25.1

N.Y.

27.2

N.J.

28.7

D.C.

29.5

*Includes states with near-total abortion bans, six-week bans, 15-week bans and bans passed before Roe took effect

Note: About half or more of the abortion patients in Kansas and D.C. are not residents

Source: Guttmacher Institute, Post research, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Abortion tends to be rarer in states with “trigger” laws

Number of abortions in 2017 per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44

“Trigger” laws immediately ban most abortions

Wyo.

1.3

S.D.

3.1

Idaho

3.7

Ky.

3.8

Mo.

4.0

Utah

4.3

Miss.

4.4

Ark.

5.5

Okla.

6.2

N.D.

7.8

Tenn.

9.1

Tex.

9.2

La.

10.7

Other restrictive laws set to take effect*

W.Va.

4.5

S.C.

5.2

Neb.

5.4

Wis.

5.8

Ind.

5.9

Iowa

6.3

Ala.

6.4

Ariz.

8.8

Ohio

9.3

Kan.

12.1

Mich.

14.2

N.C.

14.3

Ga.

16.6

Fla.

18.2

Broad access to abortion for now

Mont.

8.1

Alaska

8.7

Maine

8.7

N.H.

9.0

Minn.

9.9

Va.

10.2

Colo.

10.5

Del.

10.5

Vt.

11.3

N.M.

11.6

Ore.

11.6

Wash.

11.7

Hawaii

12.2

Pa.

13.1

Mass.

13.3

Nev.

16.0

Calif.

16.5

R.I.

16.8

Ill.

16.8

Conn.

17.8

Md.

25.1

N.Y.

27.2

N.J.

28.7

D.C.

29.5

*Includes states with near-total abortion bans, six-week bans, 15-week bans and bans passed before Roe took effect

Note: About half or more of the abortion patients in Kansas and D.C. are not residents

Source: Guttmacher Institute, Post research, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Abortion tends to be rarer in states with “trigger” laws

Number of abortions in 2017 per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44

“Trigger” laws

Other restrictions*

Broad access for now

Wyo.

1.3

W.Va.

4.5

Mont.

8.1

S.D.

3.1

S.C.

5.2

Alaska

8.7

Neb.

5.4

Maine

8.7

Idaho

3.7

Ky.

3.8

Wis.

5.8

N.H.

9.0

Mo.

4.0

Ind.

5.9

Minn.

9.9

Va.

10.2

Utah

4.3

Iowa

6.3

Miss.

4.4

Ala.

6.4

Colo.

10.5

Ark.

5.5

Ariz.

8.8

Del.

10.5

Vt.

11.3

Okla.

6.2

Ohio

9.3

N.D.

7.8

Kan.

12.1

N.M.

11.6

Tenn.

9.1

Mich.

14.2

Ore.

11.6

Wash.

11.7

Tex.

9.2

N.C.

14.3

La.

10.7

Ga.

16.6

Hawaii

12.2

Fla.

18.2

Pa.

13.1

Mass.

13.3

*Includes states with near-total abortion bans, six-week bans, 15-week bans and bans passed before Roe took effect

Nev.

16.0

Calif.

16.5

R.I.

16.8

Ill.

16.8

Note: About half or more of the abortion patients in Kansas and D.C. are not residents

Conn.

17.8

Md.

25.1

N.Y.

27.2

Source: Guttmacher Institute, Post research, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

N.J.

28.7

D.C.

29.5

Most women who have abortions already have children, and most are in their 20s. The number of teenagers who have abortions declined over the past decade; they now account for less than 9 percent. Black women accounted for 38 percent of abortions, followed by White women at 33 percent and Hispanic women at 21 percent.

A majority of Americans, 54 percent, believe Roe should stand, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted last week, compared with 28 percent who said it should be overturned.

Daniela Santamariña and Caroline Kitchener contributed to this report.

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