6:40 pm Update: Showers and storms have made it to the 95 corridor in a generally weakened state compared to earlier. Moderate to briefly heavy bouts of rain shouldn’t last too long with the main line as it progresses southeast, but some lighter activity may linger for up to an hour or so behind it. Once the main line passes any small risk for severe weather will end. The NWS has already chopped Loudoun and Frederick from the watch, with places east likely soon to follow.
5:50 pm Update: The line of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms is approaching much of the immediate metro area with front-running outflow winds now to the northwest Beltway. These storms will continue to track toward I-95 over the next hour. Though there are no warnings at the time of this update, some isolated severe weather is possible as it moves through in addition to heavy rain and plentiful lightning.
4:50 pm Update: A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is slowly edging closer to the metro area from the west, now reaching western Fauquier, western Loudoun and central Frederick counties. Some of these storms may try to work into the west and northwest suburbs of DC over the next few hours.
1:45 pm Update: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 8 p.m. for the DC metro area except for the far south suburbs.
FORECAST IN DETAIL
It’s July and all, so today’s forecast isn’t all that surprising. For today and the near future, we’re looking for warm and humid days with storm chances waxing and waning, but still remaining, in the daily forecast. For those of you looking for a change in the air, an approaching cold front later in the week shows signs of ushering cooler, less humid air into the area.
Today (Sunday): We close out the holiday weekend with another notch in the 90s belt as temperatures top out in the low-to-mid 90s. Mostly sunny morning skies turn partly cloudy during the afternoon as some storms try to get going to our west. During the mid-to-late afternoon, a few storms could make it into the western suburbs and eventually as far east as around D.C. and I-95, with the chance of rain at any given location about 30%. Winds from the south at 5-15 mph continue to pump in the humidity. Confidence: Medium-High
Tonight: Evening storm chances remain about 30%, again mainly from D.C./I-95 and to the west, before an impulse of energy actually bumps our chances for overnight showers and storms up to 50% area-wide. Overnight lows remain on the mild side, only dropping to the mid-70s most spots with mostly cloudy skies and winds from the southwest at 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium
Traveling home from the holiday? For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…
Tomorrow (Monday): Shower and storm chances continue around 50% through early-to-mid morning. Then we’ll need to keep an eye to the sky for some scattered redevelopment during the afternoon (40% chance). In the meantime though, we’ll see intermittent periods of sun and clouds. Those clouds may hold temperatures in check just a bit, with highs still managing the upper 80s to low 90s. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow night: Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to recede after sunset, with only a 20% chance of a thundershower overnight. Otherwise we’re looking at your typical summer night around here, with partly cloudy skies and lows in the low-to-mid 70s. Confidence: Medium-High
A LOOK AHEAD
Well folks, I’m sorry. I’m running out of creative ways to give the same old forecast. So, I’ll try Tuesday in haiku!…
It’s hot, it’s humid
Chance for afternoon thunder.
Highs in the 90s.
Low 90s to be exact, with a 20-30% chance of afternoon/evening t’storms. And for the overnight, it’s partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the low-to-mid 70s. Confidence: Medium
A change in the forecast? Well, not yet, but Wednesday sees the approach of a cold front that could bring welcome change later in the week. But for at least one more day we’re looking at warm and humid conditions. Highs aim for the upper 80s to low 90s, accompanied by higher chances for storms (50%) thanks to the approaching front. Confidence: Low-Medium