10 p.m. Update: Models have trended earlier and less intense with Monday’s rain. The best chance of heavier showers and perhaps some thunder now looks to be during the afternoon rather than evening, with showers exiting the area by mid-evening. Best guess on rain totals is around 0.5-1″ with locally lighter and heavier totals possible.
FORECAST IN DETAIL
From what I can tell, we’ve gone back in time to late August. A return to the present is in the forecast, but not before we endure one more day of abnormal warmth. Those calling for relief of the liquid variety should get their prayers answered by tomorrow afternoon into evening as a cold front taps some tropical moisture, giving us the potential for a good soaking. Following that, we return to a more autumn-ish bliss, with bright blue skies and cool temperatures prevailing for midweek.
Today (Sunday): One more day of summer heat is on the docket to close out the weekend. A stray morning shower isn’t impossible north of D.C. thanks to a warm front stretching through Pennsylvania. But most of us have to wait another day for any real chance of rain. Winds from the south around 10 mph reinforce the moderate humidity, as highs reach near 90 under partly to mostly sunny skies. Confidence: Medium-High
Tonight: Into the evening and overnight, skies turn mostly cloudy with the continued influx of moist tropical air. A few light showers are possible toward morning (30% chance) with perhaps some patchy fog and lows mainly in the upper 60s. Breezes blow lightly from the south-southeast at about 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High
When is our best chance of rain? Keep reading for the forecast through the midweek…
Tomorrow (Monday): Finally it looks like we’ll get some rain around here. The true remnants of Karen should stay in the Southeast U.S. But an approaching cold front draws up some tropical moisture to give us a 30% chance of morning showers, increasing to a 70-80% chance of showers and storms during the afternoon and evening. Partly to mostly cloudy skies help hold temperatures in check, but it’s still a warm and humid day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Some storms could produce very heavy rain and, if we have enough instability, strong winds. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow night: The most consistent and intense of the rainfall is likely during the evening as shower and storm chances remain at 70-80%. Showers may linger overnight, and unless the cold front really loses its punch for some reason, many spots should see rain totals in the 0.75-1.5″ range by morning, with up to around 2″ possible in localized areas. Cooler air rushes in quickly behind the front and overnight lows drop to the upper 50s to low 60s. Confidence: Medium
A LOOK AHEAD
Tuesday features a whole new situation. Much cooler and drier air arrives as high pressure builds in. A few lingering showers are possible early, but skies should turn partly to mostly sunny by or before lunchtime. Highs max out in the refreshing 70s with a bit of a breeze from the northwest. Tuesday night, we’re back to sleeping with the windows open! Skies are mostly clear with lows from the upper 40s to mid-50s. Confidence: Medium-High
Our fall crispness continues Wednesday with sunny skies and temperatures topping out only in the low 70s. Confidence: Medium-High