*** Important: Follow our latest live updates at this link: Capital Weather Gang Live Snow Blog ***

** Winter storm warning tonight through Thursday afternoon | Closings **

Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Snow has overspread the entire region and the storm, thus far, is playing out as anticipated – but it gets trickier towards morning into tomorrow. We still think mixing with sleet and/or freezing rain is likely for the I-95 corridor, but you may not have to go too far west for this to be a mostly snowstorm.

Some key points:

  • Snow falls heavily tonight, with 4-8 inches of accumulation by 7 a.m. Locally heavier amounts are possible.
  • Near I-95 (within 15 miles) and points east, snow likely mixes with and changes to sleet and freezing rain Thursday morning, between 5 a.m. and 9 a.m. from east to west.  Locations near the Chesapeake Bay and southern Maryland may turn to plain rain.
  • From western Fairfax County and western Montgomery county (from roughly Gaithersburg to Oakton to Manassas) and points west, precipitation remains mostly snow  during the day, although some sleet could mix in at times, especially during the morning. Another 4-6 inches of accumulation are possible.
  • In the afternoon, areas getting mixed precipitation may turn back to snow, with light additional accumulations of 1-2″ possible.  However, how heavy the snow is in this second round and whether temperatures are cold enough for more meaningful accumulation is uncertain. See Wes Junker’s post: Banding behind the storm, the snow wild card

Capital Weather Gang snowfall forecast, first issued noon, Tuesday, 2/11.


3.5 apples: Schools are either closed or very likely will (at least a 90 percent chance). Probably safe to blow off your homework, but your day off will be more enjoyable if you do it now.


4 domes: Greater than 75% chance of shutdown. Near certainty of unscheduled leave policy.

The comment area below is the place to discuss the snow that’s falling through the overnight hours and any reactions to the frequent updates in our live blog (running through 1 a.m.) , which can be found here: Heavy snow tonight, then mixed precipitation Thursday (LIVE FORECAST UPDATES)

Our next blog update will be at 5 a.m.