** Winter weather advisory 6 a.m. to 2 p.m. whole area except Frederick, Howard and Carroll counties. Starts at 2 a.m. well south [map] **

9:10 p.m. update: The winter weather advisory has been extended into the immediate D.C. area as freezing drizzle is expected to develop over the region during the morning commute. More widespread light freezing rain is possible after that before it changes over to rain during the morning. Some sleet and even some snowflakes are also possible. Ice amounts of less than one tenth of an inch are expected. For the immediate metro area and points north, we are on the edge of this event and it’s possible we don’t see much, but just a little ice can cause problems, especially with the ground frozen.


South of Fairfax and Prince George’s County

1.5 apples:  50/50 chance of a delay, 1 in 4 chance schools close

The remainder of the area

1 apple: Slight chance of a delay (1 in 4 chance)

7:40 p.m. update: The National Weather Service has extended winter weather advisories a bit north to include some of the southernmost parts of our area. The advisory runs from 2 a.m. until 2 p.m. and is for ice amounts of less than one tenth of an inch. In general, it still appears temperatures should rise above freezing shortly after sunrise, but areas in better precipitation may take longer to see that rise occur.

Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

From 3: 50 p.m.: We managed at least filtered sunshine for a good part of the day, but highs mainly in the low-to-mid 30s felt rather chilly. Breezes in the 10 mph range, with higher gusts, have also kept wind chills a good 10 or more degrees below the actual air temperature. As a storm winds up to our south and east, clouds will thicken and those winds won’t go anywhere. There may be some wintry weather in the morning as well.

Through Tonight: Clouds thicken and lower as we go through the night. It should stay dry for most of the time, but light precipitation  (40% chance south and east of D.C., 10-20% chance north and west) may begin to work into the area during the pre-dawn hours. This could briefly start as snow or sleet, but should predominantly be light freezing rain if it happens. Any ice accumulations would be very light, yet it doesn’t take much to cause travel woes. Lows range from the mid-20s to near 30. Winds are out of the northeast and north around 10 mph.

Tomorrow (Friday): Any light freezing rain turns to rain as we get further past sunrise, with the precipitation focus remaining over south and east parts of the area. There’s about a 60% chance of precipitation during the day in the city and south or east, and roughly a 40% well north and west. Since we’re on the edge of this system, it’s uncertain how long precipitation persists or how far into the area it makes it. Outlying suburbs north and west could even stay entirely dry. Where there is precipitation, there shouldn’t be a whole lot, yet well south and east may come in with respectable totals. Everything tends to depart by afternoon or evening. Highs should reach the upper 30s to near 40 most spots. Winds are from the north around 10 mph.

Total precipitation forecast through Friday via the hi resolution NAM. (Weatherbell.com)

See David Streit’s forecast through the beginning of next week. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter . For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock.

Snow lion: Walter Crain, known as walter-in-fallschurch here on the blog, sculpted yet another masterpiece following the early March snowstorm that hit the area on Monday. Since March is known to come in like a lion and go out like a lamb, his artwork is quite fitting, especially given the extreme conditions we saw earlier this week. You can check out more of his fantastic work on his Flickr page, and see past coverage  below.

Weather geeks want more snow

Honey, I shrunk the snow sculpture

The sculptor and the magic snow machine