FORECAST IN DETAIL
We turn up the heat and humidity for the next couple days, and that bumps up storm chances. But the jet stream pattern over North America this first week of June is definitely more active than a typical summer-time one, suggesting more of a spring flavor. Air masses are more transient than stagnant, meaning that when we warm up or cool down, we don’t stay that way for very long. Also, wet and dry periods are shorter-lived. In other words, if you don’t like the pattern du jour, just wait a day or two and you’ll get something different.
The really good news is that for the past few weeks, we have seen a pattern cycle giving us really nice weekends, and I believe it holds for this week too. Starting Friday, we aim for middle 80s, low dew points, and mostly sunny weather. Summer at its best!
Today (Tuesday): High pressure is shifting offshore to change its role from pleasant-weather provider to a modest heat pump. Some morning sunshine shifts to partly to mostly cloudy around by afternoon as temperatures achieve warmer middle to upper 80s. Light winds from the southwest pump in higher humidity as our dew points reach the middle 60s. There is also a 60% likelihood of scattered showers and storms by afternoon. Rainfall totals range from a trace to a tenth of an inch, but some areas could see locally higher amounts. Confidence: Medium
Tonight: Evening showers and storms are possible yet (30% risk), but then mainly partly cloudy skies overnight with lows ranging from the low 60s in the outer suburbs to the upper 60s in the city. Light winds from the southwest at 5 mph or so. Dew points hold up a bit, so the night has a slightly more muggy feel, but nothing too serious. Confidence: Medium
For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…
Tomorrow (Wednesday): Partly to mostly sunny with dropping humidity, but still temperatures managing to reach the middle or upper 80s. Winds shift to come from the northwest by mid-to-late morning, which allows our dew points to drop into the more comfortable 50s by afternoon. There is an isolated chance of a storm or shower toward late afternoon or evening. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow night: Partly to mostly cloudy as we watch the potential for a late night thunderstorm complex (MCS- mesoscale convective system) into our area. The timing and tracking unfortunately continues to vary on the modeling with some steering the event right over us in the early morning to dawn hours and others missing us to the north. If we get it, we could see very heavy rains (.5 to 1.25″ range) and some lightning/thunder to wake us up a bit. Lows drop into the 60s. Confidence: Low-Medium
A LOOK AHEAD
Thursday could see continued storminess in the early morning hours and then another chance for scattered showers and storms toward midday ahead of a bigger cool front. Partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the low to middle 80s, but dew points start to really fall off in the mid-to-late afternoon, so conditions start feeling much comfortable. Some partial clearing Thursday night with low temperatures reaching down well into the comfortable 50s. Confidence: Low-Medium
Friday looks fantastic with highs in the low 80s, mostly sunny skies, and comfortable low humidity. Friday night aims for mostly clear skies as temperatures dip to the 50s or near 60 right in the city. Confidence: Medium-High
The weekend has a really good shot of being our third NICE weekend in a row. Mostly sunny skies, temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, and most importantly, relatively low humidity levels should dominate. However, some guidance suggests a chance for showers and storms toward Sunday evening that could disrupt the end- we’ll say a 30% chance to watch the risk for now. Confidence: Medium