NOAA’s Satellite Data and Information Service network was hacked in September, and to respond, an important data feed for weather forecasts was taken out of commission for two days in October while NOAA conducted “unscheduled maintenance” to clean-up the problem, according to sources.
We posted the full story behind the satellite outage and hacking incident early this afternoon. An excerpt:
“NOAA told me it was a hack and it was China,” said Wolf, who also scolded the agency for not disclosing the attack “and deliberately misleading the American public in its replies.”“They had an obligation to tell the truth,” said Rep. Frank Wolf, (R-Virginia). “They covered it up.”
The story highlights the significance of satellite data for weather forecasts, but I can offer some more context here.
NOAA leadership, in public statements, has repeatedly spoken about the value of satellite data as an essential component of the nation’s “environmental intelligence.”
“NOAA’s satellites provide critical data for forecasts and warnings that are vital to every citizen and to our economy as a whole,” said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan in a 2013 statement.
After recent high impact weather events, NOAA has run experiments demonstrating the essential value of satellite data.
In 2012, NOAA said its satellite data was instrumental in the European Center for Medium-range Forecasting (ECWMF) model’s prediction 5 days out that Superstorm Sandy would turn and hit the Northeast coast – where it caused more than $50 billion in damages – rather than hooking out to sea. ““Had we thought the brunt of the storm was going to stay out in the Atlantic, or if residents had only a day to prepare or evacuate, the results would have been even more devastating,” Sullivan said at the time.
Related: Without polar satellites, forecast for Superstorm Sandy would have suffered European analysis finds
In 2011, NOAA credited satellite data for its ability to successfully alert the public 5 days ahead of time about the likelihood of a dangerous severe weather outbreak, that ultimately spawned 312 tornadoes April 25-28. “”We would have not been able to alert the public as early as we did about the strong potential for these violent tornadoes, were it not for the data from NOAA satellites,” said NWS forecaster Greg Carbin.
And in 2010, the NWS said satellite data proved pivotal in its forecasts for “Snowmageddon,” the February blizzard that crippled Washington, D.C. and much of Mid-Atlantic. NWS said five-day forecasts made without the benefit of satellite data would have under-predicted snowfall amounts by at least ten inches in the D.C. area.
“Our global observing systems are the foundation of the information and data we provide – without them we are essentially “flying blind” and the level of uncertainty in our forecasts increases at a time when people are demanding more precision,” Sullivan testified to Congress in April.
The October satellite data outage, precipitated by the hack, meant weather forecasting centers at the National Weather Service and around the world did not receive large amounts of data from NOAA weather satellites.
“All the operational data sent via NOAA, which is normally an excellent service, was lost,” said Stephen English, head of the satellite section at the ECMWF, which is renowned for running the world’s most advanced and accurate global weather prediction model.
NOAA said the two day outage in October negatively affected the “skill” or accuracy of its prediction models, but likely not enough for the public to notice. According to NOAA, the outage resulted in a roughly a 12-hour degradation in model forecasts such that its 5-day forecast was about as accurate as the typical 5.5 day forecast.
ECMWF’s English said its model was “resilient” to the outage and did not experience a discernible decline in accuracy. “If the outage had continued for a longer period the impact may well have become significant,” English said.
The outage also affected Environment Canada, which operates a global prediction model. The impact of the lost data, it said, was difficult to assess.
The October data outage in addition to exposing security vulnerabilities to NOAA’s satellite network may, in some ways, be a sneak preview of the predicament NOAA could face starting in 2016 due to a possible gap in the coverage of polar orbiting satellites. The gap would arise from a break between the design life time of one of its current satellites and the projected launch of its replacement in 2017. In 2013, the Government Accountability Office cited the looming gap as one of the top 30 challenges facing the Federal government.