TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

4/10: Still chilly, but at least the sun helps push us back above freezing.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Increasing p.m. clouds. Highs: Mid-30s to near 40.
Tonight: Freezing rain develops late. Lows: Upper 20s to low 30s.
Tomorrow: Freezing rain turns to rain. Highs: Mid-30s to near 40.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Morning sun helps gets the mercury moving back above the freezing mark this afternoon. Increasing late-day clouds are a harbinger of ugly weather to come, however, as poorly timed wintry precipitation could trouble the Monday morning commute. The last bastion of the arctic air likely holds on long enough to produce some slick spots early Monday before turning into the least sexy of all weather forecasts, “30s and rain.” A reinforcement of cold then returns for our midweek.

Today (Sunday): Mostly sunny skies through the morning should see increasing clouds during the afternoon as our next weather-maker approaches. Temperatures start off frigid but should moderate quickly thanks to the sun and a light wind from the south.  It’s not much of a warm-up, but at least temperatures get back above freezing, with highs in the mid-30s to near 40. Confidence: High

Tonight: Skies are mainly cloudy overnight and we’ll be watching for freezing rain (maybe mixed with a bit of sleet) to move in around 2-4 a.m. from west to east. With overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, slick spots are likely to form heading into the morning commute. On the other hand, some areas south and east of D.C. may see just plain rain with temperatures staying above freezing. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow (Monday): The freezing rain (again maybe mixed with a bit of sleet) continues into the early morning, with perhaps some areas of just plain rain south and east of D.C. Sidewalks and untreated roads could be slick during the morning commute, with the most hazardous conditions in the colder north and west suburbs. As temperatures warm past freezing from southeast to northwest, precipitation should change over to plain rain for all but the coldest areas north and west by around 7-9 a.m (could be earlier for areas south and east of the Beltway). Freezing rain may hang on until around 9-11 a.m. in Frederick, Loudoun and Carroll counties.

Plain rain may continue moderate at times into the early-to-mid afternoon, and it’s just not very pleasant at all with afternoon highs in the mid-30s to near 40. Confidence: Medium

(Capital Weather Gang)
(Capital Weather Gang)

Tomorrow night: A few showers may linger during the early evening (30-40% chance) but should eventually taper off. Another shot of colder air is on the way as winds turn breezy from the northwest. Skies stay mostly cloudy overnight as temperatures drop back toward lows in the mid-to-upper 20s. The breeze should help dry things up, but we could still see a few wet spots refreeze overnight. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

We’re right back into the freezer as we move into Tuesday.  High pressure to the north forces the chill down the coast and a breezy wind from the north doesn’t help matters much. Neither will the sun, which looks like it will fight the clouds to a 50/50 standstill as highs struggle to the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds should fill back in again Tuesday night, preventing temperatures from truly bottoming out, though we’re still expecting chilly overnight lows in the upper teens and lower 20s. Confidence: Medium-High


A frozen reflecting pool with the U.S. Capitol in the background. (Shireen David via Twitter)

Some modeling has suggested a wave may form along a front stalled to our south on Wednesday and send some light snow or mixed precipitation our way. But it may be too weak or too far south and east to do much of anything. Either way the cold air looks to remain in place, with highs only from near 30 to the mid-30s. Confidence: Low

SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX
A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

2/10 (): Tonight and tomorrow is mainly ice/rain. Wed-Thurs period holds a little hope for some flakes.

Dan Stillman contributed to this forecast.