Forecast snowfall accumulation from the Euro model through Wednesday morning. This is just one model forecast. Final snow accumulation depends heavily on the track the storm takes, and how quickly the storm develops. (weatherbell.com)

Update at 8:45 p.m.: Blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings blanket the Northeast on Sunday night in anticipation of the storm. Over 29 million people are under a blizzard warning through at least Tuesday afternoon, and 14 million people are under a winter storm warning. 24 to 36 inches of snow is expected from northern New Jersey to southern New England, in addition to the 50 to 60 mph wind gusts that could severely reduce visibility.


Winter weather advisories (purple), winter storm warnings (pink), blizzard warnings (red), and winter storm watches (blue). (NWS)

Update at 4:02 p.m.: The entire Northeast coast from New York City to Maine, including all of Connecticut and Rhode Island, is now under a blizzard warning. From New York City to Boston, the worst impacts — heaviest snow, strongest winds — will hit between Monday night and Tuesday afternoon.


Blizzard warnings are shown in red. (NWS)

Update at 3:43 p.m.: The National Weather Service has updated their forecast snowfall amounts for the New York City area. If these incredible snowfall totals come to fruition, this storm could top the snowiest on record: 26.9 inches on Feb. 11-12, 2006.


Snowfall forecast for the New York City metro area from the National Weather Service as of 3:34 p.m. Sunday. (NWS)

Update at 3:27 p.m.: A blizzard warning has been issued for parts of the New York City metro, Long Island, and southern Connecticut. The Weather Service warns of a “crippling and potentially historic blizzard” from late Monday into Tuesday.


(NWS)

Blizzard warning in orange, blizzard watch in lime green, winter storm watch in blue. (NWS)

Original post:

The Weather Service in New York City has dubbed it a “potentially historic nor’easter.” Forecasters in Boston are calling it a “text book case” for a New England blizzard. And residents from Philadelphia to New York are being advised to change their travel plans for the blockbuster winter storm that will impact the Northeast on Monday and Tuesday.​

Model forecasts are suggesting that a winter storm that will track up the Northeast coast on Monday night into early Wednesday morning could drop as much as 25 inches of snow along the country’s busiest and most populous Northeast corridor.

New York City could see 20 inches of snow when all is said and done. Snow totals in Boston could rival the snowiest storm the city has ever seen: 27.6 inches on Feb. 17-18, 2003.

D.C. forecast: Rain and snow mix likely

The powerful winter storm is a concern not just because of the rapid intensification it will undergo after it moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast, but also because of the high pressure and the deep pool of cold air to the north. These colder air temperatures are going to ensure a nearly all-snow event, and thus higher snow accumulation.


Forecast wind gusts on Tuesday. (weather.com)

In addition to the historic snowfall totals, high winds will create white out conditions that would paralyze travel from New Jersey to New England. A blizzard watch is in effect for parts of eastern New Jersey, New York City and Long Island, as well as southern Connecticut, all of Rhode Island, and eastern Massachusetts.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph could lead to widespread power outages. Visibilities will drop to less than ¼ of a mile at times of peak snowfall intensity, which is expected to climb to more than 1 inch per hour.


A blizzard watch (lime green) is in effect from eastern New Jersey north into Boston, including New York City. Surrounding winter storm watches are shown in blue, and winter weather advisories are shown in purple. (NWS)

The blizzard watch statement from the National Weather Service in New York details the extreme winter impacts that the region faces on Tuesday:

(NWS)
(NWS)

Forecast animation of the winter storm from Sunday night as it tracks across the Ohio Valley, though Wednesday morning. Areas of green indicate rain, while areas of blue-purple indicate snow. (weatherbell.com)

The nor’easter will be born from an Alberta clipper that is currently making its way across the Ohio Valley. The Washington, D.C., and Baltimore areas will see some snow from the storm, though not as much as the blockbuster totals expected just to the north.

The Weather Service in Mount Holly, N.J., is forecasting “most likely” snow totals anywhere from 6 to 10 inches in the Philadelphia area, though they caution that the worst-case scenario is more like 20 inches, and this storm’s worst-case scenario seems to have higher chances of playing out than we typically see.


“Most likely” snow totals around Philadelphia, Delaware, and New Jersey through Tuesday night. (NWS)

Around New York, the Weather Service’s “most likely” scenario is weighted heavily toward the worst case scenario, with a whopping 18 to 24 inches across all five boroughs of N.Y.C., Long Island, and southern Conn.

If these totals play out, this nor’easter could break into the top five snow storms on record for New York City.


“Most likely” snow totals around New York City through Tuesday night. (NWS)

In southern New England, the Weather Service is expecting similar snow totals. 18 to 24 inches seems most likely to fall across northeast Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern Massachusetts. Even the Cape will get its share of snow, with a forecast of 10 to 14 inches.


“Most likely” snow totals in northern Conn., eastern Mass., and Rhode Island through Wednesday morning. (NWS)